Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Kansas City, MO

665 
WWUS53 KEAX 130200
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
900 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSC043-MOC087-130230-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-230513T0230Z/
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
900 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES...

At 900 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Highland,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Highland, Oregon, Forest City, White Cloud, Leona and Iowa Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3996 9534 4004 9522 3991 9504 3977 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 228DEG 23KT 3987 9528 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDB

326 
WWUS53 KEAX 130211
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
911 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSC043-MOC087-130230-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-230513T0230Z/
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
911 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES...

At 910 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oregon, or near
Highland, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Highland, Oregon, Forest City and Iowa Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9534 4002 9520 3991 9504 3985 9517
      3984 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 239DEG 27KT 3991 9515 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDB

560 
WWUS53 KEAX 130222
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
922 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSC043-MOC087-130231-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-230513T0230Z/
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
922 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...
        
The warning has been replaced with a new severe thunderstorm 
warning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.


LAT...LON 3994 9534 4002 9520 3991 9504 3985 9517
      3984 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 228DEG 23KT 3995 9509 

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

Key Points:

* Severe weather possible tonight across eastern KS/northwestern
  Missouri with all modes of severe weather possible.

* Warm temperatures on Sunday may lead to additional storms on
  Saturday.

Detailed discussion...

Stacked low pressure system over southern Nebraska is expected to
lead to slowly lift northeast towards northeast Nebraska overnight.
Scattered convection has begun to develop along a dry line from York
NE to Manhattan KS.  Ahead of this boundary, rich surface moisture
with dew points near 70 degrees is leading to ML CAPE values of 2500-
3500 J/kg. Veering wind profiles leading to broad area of 0-6 km
bulk shear of 25 -35 knots. Have seen a few elevated storms develop
through the afternoon hours percolate, but have not lasted too long
as low level moisture shallows and capping inversion strengthens.

Low level speed max is expected to move into northeast
Kansas/northwestern Missouri this evening leading localized
enhancement of wind shear across northeast KS/northwest Missouri.
Expect isolated to scattered storms to develop this evening across
eastern KS/northwest Missouri after 22Z.  With adequate shear am
expecting supercells to be prevailing storm mode, favoring all types
of severe weather including tornadoes. Storm threat is expected to
continue through the evening hours with the greatest threat for
severe weather west of highway 65 and north of I-70.

Upper low is expected to continue to weaken and fill as it lifts
northeast into northern Iowa on Saturday.  Southwest flow south of
the low is expected to draw drier air into the region leading to
increased stability from west to east.  With diurnal heating, areas
east of highway 65 will become conditionally unstable on Saturday
afternoon.  While there is not necessarily a trigger in place
outside of diurnal heating, surface temperatures warming well into
the 80s may lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening hours across eastern Missouri.

Shortwave dropping southeast on Sunday could lead to additional
storms across the Mississippi Valley on Sunday.  While this feature
will largely be focused east of the forecast area, weak instability
could lead to showers/weak thunderstorms across the region.

Additional shortwaves are expected to move through the Midwest
throughout the next week leading to additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms; however, cooler temperatures and and lower moisture
in northwest flow is expected to keep storms on the lighter side.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Storms are
expected to dissipate as they shift to the east and they should
not impact MCI, IXD, or MKC. Winds will remain out of the south
east through the period. STJ may be impacted by thunderstorms
around 3z tonight. Storms should clear the area by 6z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms are expected to develop in northeast Kansas and
 northwest Missouri this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be
severe. Primary hazards include damaging winds and large hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend. For
Saturday through Thursday, the severe weather threat is low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo