Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2023
River Flood Warning 13, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Aug 4, 2023, 10:00 PM CDT for 4 counties in Missouri. It took effect at Aug 5, 2023, 10:58 AM CDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 4, 2023, 10:00 PM CDT (03:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 5, 2023, 10:58 AM CDT
- Expired
- Aug 7, 2023, 10:43 AM CDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Grand River near Sumner (SNZM7). The gauge peaked at 33.75 ft at Aug 6, 2023, 1:00 AM CDT.
- Action stage
- 21 ft
- Minor stage
- 26 ft
- Moderate stage
- 28 ft
- Major stage
- 40 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06902000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
265
WGUS43 KEAX 050300
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill MO has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Livingston, Chariton, Carroll
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-060300-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0013.230806T0909Z-230808T0000Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.230806T0909Z.230806T1200Z.230807T0000Z.NO/
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night to Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 13.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning to a crest of 27.8 feet Sunday morning.
It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
739 follow-up statements
551
WGUS43 KEAX 051000
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and
increased in duration for the following rivers in Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Livingston, Chariton, Carroll
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-061000-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.230806T0056Z-230808T2120Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230806T0056Z.230806T1800Z.230807T2120Z.NO/
500 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...From this evening to Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 4:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 14.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this evening to a crest of 33.2 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Monday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
73334
WGUS83 KEAX 051250
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Gallatin affecting Daviess and Livingston
Counties.
Grand River near Pattonsburg affecting Daviess and Gentry
Counties.
Grand River near Chillicothe affecting Livingston and Linn MO
Counties.
Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll, Livingston, Chariton
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC061-117-061300-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230806T1948Z/
/GAZM7.1.ER.230805T1050Z.230805T1800Z.230806T0154Z.NO/
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Gallatin.
* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, Low-lying woodlands and farmland along the
river flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 26.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.0
feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage this
evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Gallatin 26.0 26.4 Sat 6am 27.0 10.7 5.2
&&
LAT...LON 3996 9410 4004 9399 3983 9363 3974 9367
$$
MOC061-075-061300-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-230806T1617Z/
/PATM7.1.ER.230805T0530Z.230805T0945Z.230805T1800Z.UU/
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Pattonsburg.
* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.
* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Low-lying farmland begins to flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 26.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
this afternoon and continue falling to 2.7 feet Thursday
morning.
- Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 26.1 Sat 7am 25.0 7.8 3.6
&&
LAT...LON 4004 9400 3996 9410 4014 9445 4020 9433
$$
MOC115-117-061300-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0014.230805T1537Z-230807T1452Z/
/CHZM7.2.ER.230805T1213Z.230806T0000Z.230806T2155Z.NO/
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Chillicothe.
* WHEN...Until late Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Low-lying cropland floods.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 32.0
feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Chillicothe 24.0 23.5 Sat 6am 30.0 27.8 10.4
&&
LAT...LON 3983 9363 3978 9343 3967 9343 3974 9367
$$
MOC033-041-115-117-061300-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0013.230806T0056Z-230808T2120Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T2040Z.230807T0000Z.230808T0240Z.NO/
750 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...From this evening to Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 16.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late this afternoon to a crest of 33.7 feet tomorrow evening.
It will then fall below flood stage late Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 16.0 Sat 6am 22.3 33.6 31.4
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
Kurtz141
WGUS83 KEAX 051558
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1058 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Livingston, Chariton, Carroll
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-061600-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.230805T1558Z-230809T0219Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230807T0000Z.230808T0219Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...From this morning to late Tuesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 26.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.8
feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
late Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 26.5 Sat 10am 27.5 33.7 31.6
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
Krull726
WGUS83 KEAX 051656
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Livingston, Chariton, Carroll
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-061700-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230809T0219Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230807T0000Z.230808T0219Z.NO/
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...Until late Tuesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:45 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 28.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.8
feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
late Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sat Sun Mon
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 28.2 Sat 11am 27.5 33.7 31.6
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
Krull751
WGUS83 KEAX 060315
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Chillicothe affecting Livingston and Linn MO
Counties.
Grand River near Sumner affecting Chariton, Carroll, Livingston
and Linn MO Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC115-117-070315-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230807T2041Z/
/CHZM7.2.ER.230805T1213Z.230806T0600Z.230806T2041Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Chillicothe.
* WHEN...Until Monday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Low-lying cropland floods.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 30.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.0
feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue
1am 1am 1am
Grand River
Chillicothe 24.0 30.7 Sat 9pm 31.0 15.8 8.7
&&
LAT...LON 3983 9363 3978 9343 3967 9343 3974 9367
$$
MOC033-041-115-117-070315-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230808T2106Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230806T1200Z.230807T2106Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:45 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 33.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.6
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
Monday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue
1am 1am 1am
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 33.4 Sat 9pm 33.3 31.8 15.1
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
Leighton061
WGUS83 KEAX 061517
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1017 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll, Linn MO, Chariton and
Livingston Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-071530-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230808T1746Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230806T0600Z.230807T1746Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:45 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 7.3 feet
Friday morning.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Sun Mon Tue
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 33.0 Sun 9am 32.6 25.9 13.8
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
BT781
WGUS83 KEAX 070244
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
944 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Linn MO, Livingston, Chariton
and Carroll Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-080245-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230808T1746Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230806T0600Z.230807T1746Z.NO/
944 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:45 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 30.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 7.2 feet
Friday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Mon Tue Wed
1am 1am 1am
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 30.6 Sun 8pm 29.7 18.2 12.2
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
Leighton762
WGUS83 KEAX 071307
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
807 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Chariton, Carroll, Linn MO and
Livingston Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
This product along with additional weather and stream information is
available at www.weather.gov/kc/.
MOC033-041-115-117-081315-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230808T1348Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230806T0600Z.230807T1348Z.NO/
807 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Grand River near Sumner.
* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage
begins to flood.
At 26.0 feet, Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
At 28.0 feet, Rural roads are under water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 26.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
this morning and continue falling to 7.2 feet Friday evening.
- Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Mon Tue Wed
1pm 1pm 1pm
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 26.5 Mon 7am 24.1 13.8 11.0
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
SAW852
WGUS83 KEAX 071543
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1043 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Grand River near Sumner affecting Chariton, Carroll, Linn MO and
Livingston Counties.
MOC033-041-115-117-071645-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230807T1543Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.230805T1530Z.230806T0600Z.230807T1402Z.NO/
1043 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Grand River near Sumner.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 25.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling through
at least Tuesday.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
Fld Obs Forecasts
Location Stg Stg Day/Time Mon Mon Tue
1pm 7pm 1am
Grand River
Sumner 26.0 25.7 Mon 9am 24.1 21.2 19.0
&&
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321
3951 9330
$$
SAWWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 4, 6:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 6:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2023
Key Messages:
- Strong to Severe Storms This Evening
- Thunderstorms Saturday Late Afternoon Through Late Evening; Severe
Storms Possible
- Slightly Cooler Temperatures; Still Hot and Humid
Discussion:
The series of mid-level troughs across the Canadian Prairie
Provinces has de-amplified the H5 ridge pattern across the area
providing mostly zonal flow. However, there are still multiple vort
maxes and short-wave perturbations riding through the flow that will
interact with a high theta-e airmass at the surface as well as
surface thermal boundary that appears to be located roughly along
the Interstate 70 corridor, perhaps just a tad south of it. There is
also a stalled out surface cyclone across the central and southern
Great Plains with surface troughing extending eastward into Central
Missouri. With weaker flow in the southern Great Plains where there
is still 594dam high pressure, there is not much flow to help steer
this broad surface low pressure system. The main feature to monitor
this morning and afternoon is the MCV associated with last night's
convective activity in eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas. While
the initial convection with this feature has dissipated, additional
development has started around 19z. Most of these showers have been
focused along Hwy. 36 and northward, though a few smaller cells
quickly popped on radar in southern reaches of the forecast area. It
appears this MCV has provided a convective feedback, with a short-
wave trough axis and compact vort max at 500mb centered around the
NE-IA-MO-KS borders. This is creating a favorable kinematic
environment for thunderstorm develop from the KC Metro and eastward
into Central Missouri. While the current hodographs do not have a
well defined shape just yet, 0-6km bulk shear values have increased
to around 30-35 kts across the region. With the surface boundary
along interstate 70 and the surface troughing extending from the
cyclone over the central/southern plains, the weak surface winds
have backed in the last few hours across the area. Further,
southwesterly winds between 800-750mb has brought in slightly drier
air out of the Southern High Plains, and this has resulted in
clearing skies through this afternoon. The afternoon insolation has
allowed MLCAPE to reach around 2500 J/kg, which is close to what the
HREF had been hinting for this afternoon since its run last night.
While a capping inversion remains just about 850mb, the increasing
kinematics and convergence in the vicinity of the MCV has good
potential to work through this cap as we head into the early
evening. Further, it appears the MCV has also provided a modest
amount of mid-level cooling, which is helping the mid-level lapse
rates approach 7.0 C/km, and the RAP is catching onto this trend as
noted in point soundings throughout eastern Kansas over to Central
Missouri. This is a substantial improvement compared to lapse rates
from yesterday afternoon. With further boundary layer
destabilization late this afternoon, the thermodynamic improvements
may foster stronger updraft development. The main question is how
updrafts will tap into the shear environment. While the backing
surface winds have provided notable curvature in the lowest 1km and
even 2km of the hodograph, RAP and HRRR hodographs are not
demonstrating much curvature above 3km. Therefore, it may be
difficult for discrete convection to maintain itself, given that
overall storm-relative flows will be weaker, and may result in
narrow updrafts. Therefore, in order for convection to last longer
in this environment, currently think multi-cell clusters would need
to congeal and form a stronger cold pool to maintain itself. As for
severe thunderstorms hazards, precipitation loading may help to
increase low-level vertical pressure gradient forces that can result
in damaging winds. With deeper updrafts, severe hail is also
possible. Given the humid surface airmass and deeper warm cloud
depths, hail stones likely would experience a lot of melting before
reaching the ground. But enhancing kinematics may help to counter
this and result in larger hail stones. As for the tornado threat,
this is very conditional. While the low-level hodograph curvature is
there, considering the hodograph as a whole, the streamwise
vorticity ingest looks to be confined over a very shallow layer,
then quickly becomes more crosswise above 2km. Throughout most of
the environment, 0-1km SRH values are around 100 m^2/s^2 for
rightward deviations from the mean flow. Perhaps the surface
boundary could provide localized enhancements if a discrete storm
develops close to it. As mentioned before, while bulk shear values
are increasing with the H5 height falls in the vicinity of the MCV,
it is not equally distributed, with most of the shear below 3km.
Therefore, discrete storms may not have the support to remain
discrete, despite the elevated bulk shear values. An inability to
maintain discrete supercells also limits the tornado threat. If
multi-cells develop and congeal into a bigger thunderstorm cluster,
we will need to monitor the leading edge's orientation to the 0-3km
bulk shear vector, which will have a magnitude around 35 kts. If
this becomes perpendicular, there may be enough destabilization this
afternoon increasing the 0-3km CAPE that could support mesovortex
generation. However, for areas close to the current MCV, these
vectors are oriented parallel to how cells would form and congeal,
and thus greatly limits this potential.
For those of you looking at the HRRR runs this afternoon and perhaps
viewing the 12z HREF, you probably did notice the stronger updraft
helicity (UH) tracks associated with the HRRRs most intense
convection (based on simulated reflectivity). Given the the
increasing shear within the first 0-3km and curvature in this layer,
coupled with the potential for strong updrafts with improving
thermodynamics, it is not a surprise to see CAMs generating these
kinds of tracks. However, keep in mind the discussion above about
how the overall deep layer shear environment may struggle to
maintain supercell structure for an extended period of time. With
the current environment, discrete convection would likely need to
latch onto the thermal boundary to develop and sustain robust
updraft helicity. This certainly highlights the potential for
strong, potent updrafts to develop, but does not necessarily tell the
whole story about tornado potential. Therefore, damaging winds and
hail remain the primary threats with convection this afternoon, and
the tornado threat conditional.
CAM guidance suggests that this wave moves out of the area between
02-05z, and subtle H5 rises behind the short-wave provide weak
subsidence and dry conditions out. The bulk of the CAMs have no
shower or storm activity during the morning and early afternoon
hours on Saturday. However, there are a few hints of some light
activity from a few of the coarser synoptic scale models. Given the
airmass with 70 to 75 degree dewpoints, a stalled surface low,
thermal boundary, and potential for lingering outflow, will leave
slight chance POPs for most of the morning and afternoon hours on
Saturday. During the morning and early afternoon, would not expect
anything considerably organized. However, a stronger H5 trough and
with moderately strong vort max is progged to eject out of the High
Plains late in the afternoon and move eastward toward the forecast
area. This will provide another round showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday Night, and likely into the overnight hours. Assuming the
boundary layer is able to recover from Friday activity, SBCAPE mean
values from the HREF are progged around 2500 J/kg, with MUCAPE
values into the late evening hours between 2500-3000 J/kg. Deep
layer shear will increase again with 0-6km values around 35 kts
ahead of the main H5 short-wave. With a stronger jet streak
developing, the hodographs over the deep layers may have the
potential to have a more defined shape to them. These favorable
kinematics will move over a favorable airmass again, with dewpoints
still in the lower to mid 70s across most of the area. CAM guidance
still continues to keep the surface troughing in place with the
surface thermal boundary somewhere in the state. Would expect the
location of this boundary to change somewhat if Friday's activity
releases a stronger outflow. However stronger differential heating
along the boundary could steadily increase convergence throughout
the late afternoon and evening hours of Saturday. Damaging winds and
hail will be the primary threat. With increasing low-level jet
throughout the day, storms over the Plains likely congeal leading to
some form of an MCS by the time it reaches our area. Therefore, even
with decent low-level curvature, not sure that Saturday's activity
presents tornadic threat, though that could change depending on the
behavior of Friday activity.
For the rest of the week, mid-level flow will be quasi-zonal which
will help keep temperatures closer to climatological normals for
this time of year. We should start to see a decrease in humidity as
well. A few vort maxes likely become embedded within the zonal flow
bringing periodic chances for showers/convection through the middle
of the next work week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2023
Thunderstorms have developed but pushed eastward away from the KC
Metro terminals. For now, a few VFR clouds are behind the boundary
that was produced for those storms. Increasing cloud cover
overnight will drop to MVFR. With the increase moisture content
and calm winds, patchy fog is possible tonight. Have placed MVFR
visibility into most of the TAFs, with IFR at STJ that sits in the
River Valley. Additional shower/storm activity is possible
Saturday night but is outside the current TAF period.
&&
.Hydrology...
Issued at 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2023
A Flood Watch has been issued for eastern portions of the forecast
area this evening through 15z Saturday morning. This is the area
that has seen multiple rounds of heavy rain throughout the week.
HREF probability matched mean values indicate QPF potential for 2-4
inches east of Hwy. 65, with localized pockets of 5 inches. While
these higher amounts likely will not spread the entire area,
training storms along the boundary and slow storm motions, coupled
with deeper warm cloud processes will support higher rain rates. For
areas in our east, 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance is around 2
inches. Efficient thunderstorms will be able to produce this.
Therefore, the flood watch has been issued. Expect rises on local
creeks and streams. West of the flood watch area, rainfall amounts
between 0.50 and 2.0 inches are possible. These areas have flash
flood guidance closer to 3 inches over 3 hours, thus will take a
little bit more for flooding issues to occur. While the CAMs have
struggled with QPF over the last few days, the probability matched
mean magnitudes have been reasonably close estimates though not
always progged in the exact spot. Will also quickly mention that non
CAM ensembles, such as the GEFS maintain relatively low
probabilities for QPF this evening and into early Saturday morning.
For example, GEFS probability for exceeding 1.0 inch of QPF in our
east is less than 20 percent. However, it does not appear the non
CAM models are picking up well on the MCV, thus, even with their
struggles, leaning more toward CAM trends for QPF and flooding
potential as these are at least attempting to resolve the MCV.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-032-033-039-040-046.
&&
Discussion...Krull
Aviation...Krull
Hydrology...KrullHazardous weather outlook, Aug 4, 3:38 AM CDT, 18 hours 22 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 338 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-050845- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 338 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight morning thunderstorms may bring some flooding to portions of central Missouri. Additional thunderstorms move into eastern Kansas and western Missouri later this morning and afternoon. Warm conditions, with heat indices around 100 to 105 expected across west central Missouri and east central Kansas, into southern Kansas and Missouri. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Several additional rounds of thunderstorms possible through Sunday. There is a chance for storms on Saturday into Saturday night to be severe. In addition, if some areas receive several round of heavy rain, flooding may be possible. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 4, 8:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
809 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0806 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Clifton City 38.76N 93.04W
08/04/2023 E60 MPH Cooper MO Fire Dept/Rescue
60 mph estimate from Fire Dept in Clifton
City.
&&
JLLocal storm report, Aug 4, 8:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
821 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0608 PM Tornado 3 W Russellville 39.41N 93.88W
08/04/2023 Ray MO Public
Damage to a home and outbuildings along
Highway E.
&&
BMWLocal storm report, Aug 4, 8:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
831 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0557 PM Tornado 5 SE Knoxville 39.41N 93.94W
08/04/2023 Ray MO Public
Chimney toppled and roof damage to a house.
&&
BMWLocal storm report, Aug 4, 9:05 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
905 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0841 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 SSE Bunceton 38.73N 92.77W
08/04/2023 Cooper MO Public
Estimated 60 mph winds south of Bunceton.
&&
BMWLocal storm report, Aug 4, 9:12 PM CDT, 48 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
912 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0911 PM Flash Flood 7 W Mercer 40.52N 93.66W
08/04/2023 Mercer MO Dept of Highways
Route P near Beetle Street closed due to
flooding.
&&
SMLocal storm report, Aug 4, 9:49 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
949 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0946 PM Flash Flood 2 NNE Spickard 40.26N 93.59W
08/04/2023 Grundy MO Emergency Mngr
Water is over US 65 north of Spickard. Car
in the water. Water rescue being performed.
Reports of several spots of water over the
US 65 between Spickard and Trenton.
&&
SMThe office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 7:11 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Carroll, Saline | 34 min |
| Aug 4, 7:27 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Mercer | 6 hr |
| Aug 4, 7:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Chariton, Saline | 33 min |
| Aug 4, 7:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Saline | 52 min |
| Aug 4, 7:41 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Daviess, Grundy, Harrison | 6 hr |
| Aug 4, 8:06 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Cooper | 24 min |
| Aug 4, 8:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Pettis | 28 min |
| Aug 4, 8:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Cooper | 25 min |
| Aug 4, 8:27 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EAX | Cooper | 33 min |
| Aug 4, 8:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Cooper | 33 min |
| Aug 4, 9:21 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EAX | Cooper, Pettis | 6 hr |
| Aug 4, 10:01 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Linn, Livingston | 43 hr |
| Aug 4, 10:19 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EAX | Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan | 37 min |
| Aug 4, 10:56 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EAX | Adair, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan | 6 hr |
| Aug 4, 11:12 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | EAX | Caldwell, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison and 3 more | 12 hr |
| Aug 4, 11:45 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Daviess, Gentry | 13 hr |
| Aug 5, 1:03 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Grundy, Livingston | 17 hr |
| Aug 5, 3:22 AM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | EAX | Adair, Linn, Macon, Putnam, Schuyler, Sullivan | 12 hr |
| Aug 5, 5:01 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Daviess, Livingston | 13 hr |
| Aug 5, 7:45 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cooper | 6 hr |
| Aug 5, 11:45 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Chariton, Macon | 6 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2023Every river flood warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.