Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2023

Key Messages:

- Heat advisory in effect through 8 pm today for areas south of
  Kansas City.

- Another round of thunderstorms is likely overnight tonight into
  early Wednesday morning for northern/northeastern/central MO.
  Flash flooding is possible. A few storms could be strong.

- Heat advisory has been issued for the KC metro and as far north
  as St. Joseph tomorrow afternoon.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible again tomorrow
  afternoon and evening.

Discussion:

Much quieter this afternoon compared to earlier this morning when
portions of central Missouri received 4+ inches of rain, prompting
a few flash flood warnings, although a few showers remain over NW
Missouri. Temperatures range from 80 degrees over NE Missouri to
as warm as the mid 90s near Pleasanton KS. A heat advisory remain
in effect through 8 pm for Miami and Linn Counties in KS and
Bates, Cass, and Henry Counties in Missouri for heat indices near
or slightly above 105 this afternoon. A setup similar to that of early
this morning is expected again late tonight into Wednesday
morning as the low level jet ramps up and a moisture convergence
axis sets up somewhere in the vicinity of Unionville, MO to
Salisbury, MO. Training showers and thunderstorms will be likely
with the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rain within this area and
localized amounts as high as 6 inches. As such, a flood watch has
been issued for portions of northern, northeastern, and central MO
from 10 pm tonight through 10 am Wednesday. Additionally, a couple
storms could be strong to marginally severe with damaging wind
gusts and hail being the primary hazards.

By tomorrow, the center of the 500 mb high moves a bit further to
the northeast closer to our region, bringing hotter temperatures
and heat advisory criteria heat indices further northeast with it.
A heat advisory will be in effect from 11 am through 8 pm tomorrow
for the entirety of the KC metro and as far north as St. Joseph.
Scattered showers and storms will be likely again tomorrow
afternoon for much of the region, with strong to severe storms
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, especially toward central
Missouri as a shortwave trough comes across the north-central
Plains into the Midwest.

The mid level high retreats to the south to the ARKLATEX region
for Thursday into Friday with west northwesterly flow aloft
between the mid level high to our south and troughing to the
northeast. We will have chances for isolated showers and storms,
but severe weather and/or flooding concerns is not anticipated at
this time. Thursday will remain hot for areas along and south of
the Missouri River, with heat indices approaching heat advisory
criteria. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday.

Models are in decent agreement that an upper shortwave trough will
eject across the north-central Plains on Saturday and into the
Upper Midwest on Sunday. This will bring more chances for showers
and thunderstorms, with strong to severe storms possible Saturday
night over NW Missouri. This will eventually send a cold front
through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2023

Currently, there are thunderstorms north central to northeastern
Missouri, moving in a southeasterly direction. Additionally,
there are thunderstorms in central and western Kansas moving east-
southeasterly towards the region. At this time, confidence is low
in them impacting the area so I did not mention them in the
forecast at this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ020-021-028>030-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ006>008-015>017-
     023>025-031>033-039-040-046.

&&

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...Collier

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 There is a chance for a few rounds of thunderstorms this morning and
 again tonight in Central and Eastern Missouri. Heavy rains, capable
 of producing flooding is possible. Severe weather is not expected
 however, a few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds
 may be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Several additional rounds of thunderstorms possible each day this
 week. The threat of severe weather is low.

 Dangerous heat may be possible on Wednesday south of the Missouri
 River.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo