Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
631 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Stationary frontal boundary lies across se NE to se IA to ne IL.
Temps were in the 80s south of the front with dewpoints in the
60s. Moline has already broke the record for today (see climate
section below).

SPC mesoanalysis shows tremendous energy available with SBCAPES of
5000 J/kg across southern IA with the CAPE gradient along I-80.
Bulk shear was very strong at 55-60 kt across IA with SRH of 200
m2/s2. Giant hail parameters were also in place, so this is a
volatile atmosphere to say the least!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms this evening and
overnight. Main risks are damaging winds greater than 75 mph,
giant hail (hen egg size or larger) and tornadoes. Heavy rain and
possible flash flooding are also a threat. CAM's develops
scattered supercells this evening then followed by a classic
severe bow echo sweeping across much of the cwa overnight. If this
pans out then 80+ mph winds are possible after midnight. With
numerous thunderstorms forming in this juicy airmass (PWAT's 1.50
inches) heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding are also on
the table. This is one of those times be on alert even during the
wee hours of the morning!

Monday: A cold front arrives pushing the thunderstorm threat
eventually east and southward and the severe threat has been
pushed south of the dvn cwa. It will be cooler with highs in the
upper 60s north to upper 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

1) Warm week ahead with thunderstorm chances returning again late
   in the week into next weekend.

Tuesday through Sunday: Persistent deep trough in the Rockies
with a zonal to southwest flow aloft will keep our area in a warm
regime with daily highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Thunderstorm
chances return late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Storm clusters will continue advancing southeastward and likely to
impact MLI and BRL next few hours with MVFR to IFR conditions and
potential for large hail and wind gusts 40-50+ kts. In wake
of storms a period of gusty east northeast winds to 40 kts are
possible, with conditions returning to VFR. Overnight, additional
showers and storms are likely with MVFR to IFR conditions. A
severe threat is possible, mainly for winds 40-50+ kts. The
precipitation should wind down early Monday, with lower clouds
and MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings lingering until a cold frontal
passage occurs late morning through afternoon. This will bring a
shift to gusty northwest winds and allow ceilings to lift to VFR
by late in the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Record High Temperatures for Sunday May 7, 2023

Burlington   88 1934
Cedar Rapids 98 1896
Dubuque      91 1896+
Moline       88 1965+

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1148 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081700-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1148 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced risk, or level 3 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight across
much of the outlook area. The main threats are tornadoes, damaging
winds in excess of 75 MPH and golf ball size hail or larger.
There is an additional threat for heavy rainfall and the potential
for flash flooding with a slight or level 2 risk of excessive rainfall.

The Mississippi River continues to experience flooding. Please
see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Monday and again late next
week. However, the risk for severe storms is low.

The Mississippi River will continue to experience flooding during
the upcoming week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening and overnight.

Haase

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