Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Quad Cities, IA

437 
WGUS73 KDVN 052051
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
351 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

ILC071-187-060215-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230706T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson IL-Warren IL-
351 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN 
COUNTIES...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Monmouth, Kirkwood, Raritan, Media, Ponemah, Smithshire, 
  Larchland, Ormonde and Monmouth Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 9082 4069 9090 4076 9089 4085 9084
      4093 9074 4096 9063 4089 9056 4075 9066

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Gunkel

742 
WGUS73 KDVN 052202
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
502 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

ILC071-187-060215-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230706T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson IL-Warren IL-
502 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN 
COUNTIES...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Monmouth, Kirkwood, Raritan, Media, Ponemah, Smithshire, 
  Larchland, Ormonde and Monmouth Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 9082 4069 9090 4076 9089 4085 9084
      4093 9074 4096 9063 4089 9056 4075 9066

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Gunkel

602 
WGUS73 KDVN 052257
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
557 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

ILC071-187-060215-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230706T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson IL-Warren IL-
557 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN 
COUNTIES...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Monmouth, Kirkwood, Raritan, Media, Ponemah, Smithshire, 
  Larchland, Ormonde and Monmouth Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 9082 4069 9090 4076 9089 4085 9084
      4093 9074 4096 9063 4089 9056 4075 9066

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Gunkel

912 
WGUS73 KDVN 060005
FFSDVN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
705 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

ILC071-187-060015-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230706T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson IL-Warren IL-
705 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND 
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4065 9082 4069 9090 4076 9089 4085 9084
      4093 9074 4096 9063 4089 9056 4075 9066

$$

Gunkel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
140 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

[Key Messages]

1) Showers/storms, some severe, this afternoon and early evening

2) Dry & cooler for Thursday

[Discussion]

A cold front was slowly traversing the area early this afternoon,
with showers and storms accompanying it. Some had reached severe
limits, mainly producing damaging winds and large hail across
portions of far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. These
showers/storms will continue mainly across these areas for the
next several hours as the front interacts with a very unstable,
moist environment.

As the front passes through, look for conditions to become dry
as high pressure follows and builds across the area Thursday. It
will be noticeably more pleasant as well as dewpoints fall into
the 50s, with afternoon highs only climbing into the upper 70s to
low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

[Key Messages]

1) Dry & continued pleasant weather to close the work week

2) Persistent shower/storm chances return this weekend into next week

[Discussion]

Friday...

High pressure and ridging aloft will be over us to start the day
before quickly traversing east into the Ohio River Valley by the
late afternoon. This should be enough to give us one last day of
definite dry weather and pleasant humidities, with highs Friday once
again expected to only climb into the mid to upper 70s thanks to
increasing clouds.

Friday Evening into Saturday...

Will be keeping a close eye on this period as shower/storm chances
will return to the area during the evening into the night.

Synoptic-wise, robust 500 hPa shortwave embedded in zonal flow
behind the aforementioned ridging will work into the area, and will
interact with moisture and warm air advection across the central
Plains and westernmost Midwest to produce widespread showers/storms
across the east central Plains Friday evening. This is progged by
the majority of deterministic guidance to move into the area late
Friday night and Saturday morning, giving most of us a decent chance
for some rainfall. There is also a low potential of severe weather
as well with favorable shear aloft promoting storm organization.
Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of southeast
Iowa and northeast Missouri in a Level 1 (marginal) Risk of severe
thunderstorms. Look for more details on this period in subsequent
forecast packages.

Weak high pressure will follow immediately after that, which looks
to keep the rest of the daytime Saturday favored dry with only
very slight chances of additional rainfall. Leftover cloud cover
from will once again keep temperatures confined into the 70s.

Sunday on...

As alluded to in the previous discussion, we will see a noticeable
pattern change aloft as an upper level high builds over the western
CONUS and an upper low develops near Hudson Bay. This pattern change
results in lower than normal confidence on how the sensible weather
evolves as numerous shortwaves rotate around the low and move across
the region.

Deterministic guidance remains very spread out on precipitation
chances due to the shortwaves, with their respective ensembles
offering little in the way of narrowing down more favorable periods.
Hence, latest forecast package continues to highlight the remainder
of the weekend through mid-week with slight chance to chances of
showers/storms each day.

Temperature-wise, the northwest flow pattern with near zonal surface
flow favors near normal values. This puts us with daily highs in
the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Some scattered showers and storms will be possible within the
first 6 hrs or so of the forecast period at all sites. Some MVFR
vsbys may be seen with the storms. A period of MVFR cigs may also
be seen, especially at CID and DBQ, as a cold front makes its way
through the area. VFR are expected by mid evening with clearing
overnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
331 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-060845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
331 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are expected today across the area, especially
between 12 PM and 8 PM. Severe storms are possible along and east
of the Mississippi. The primary risk looks to be damaging winds.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms
along and east of the Mississippi.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day from Friday through
Tuesday. At this time it is too early to determine a severe risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening for
areas along and east of the Mississippi.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

IAZ054-066-068-ILZ007-009-015-052030-
Whiteside IL-Carroll IL-Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Clinton IA-
Jackson IA-
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Whiteside, south central Carroll, northeastern Rock Island,
northeastern Scott, eastern Clinton and southeastern Jackson Counties
through 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clinton around 255 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Fulton, Low Moor,
Camanche, East Clinton and Albany.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 9006 4173 9034 4191 9050 4205 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 335DEG 10KT 4190 9028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

McClure