Alert archive / Michigan / Small Craft Advisories in 2023
Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this small craft advisory at Feb 21, 2023, 9:41 PM EST. It took effect at Feb 22, 2023, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 57 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 21, 2023, 9:41 PM EST (02:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 22, 2023, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2023, 3:34 PM EST
- In force
- 57 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted.
969 WHUS73 KDTX 220241 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 LHZ361-220345- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230224T0200Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED... Gust potential is expected to remain below gale criteria. Gusts to 30 knots remain possible. $$ LHZ463-464-220345- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED... Gust potential is expected to remain below gale criteria. Gusts to 30 knots remain possible. $$ LHZ421-441-221515- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230222T2200Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the east with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EST Thursday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ422-221515- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230222T2200Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the east with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ362-221515- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230224T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ363-221515- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230224T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ462-221515- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-221515- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0010.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230223T0900Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the east with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-221515- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1200Z-230223T0300Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 941 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 18 knots from the east with gusts up to 26 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
7 follow-up statements
669 WHUS73 KDTX 221459 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 LHZ361-230330- /O.NEW.KDTX.UP.W.0002.230222T2200Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the east with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. During the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area or conduct mitigation. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ362-230330- /O.NEW.KDTX.UP.W.0002.230222T2200Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the east with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. During the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area or conduct mitigation. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ421-441-230330- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230222T2200Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 24 knots from the east with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST Thursday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ422-230330- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230222T2200Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the east with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Wednesday. During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ363-462-230330- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.230222T2200Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore and Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LEZ444-230300- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230223T0300Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the east with gusts up to 29 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-230330- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230222T1500Z-230223T0900Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 959 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the east with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 15 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
448 WHUS73 KDTX 230327 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 LEZ444-231530- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230223T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0022.230223T0327Z-230224T0900Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361-362-231530- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the east with gusts up to 36 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. During the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 11 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 6 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area or conduct mitigation. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ363-421-441-462-230900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 31 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ422-230900- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T0900Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 31 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-231530- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 1027 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the northeast with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 9 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 13 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EST Wednesday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
662 WHUS73 KDTX 230835 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 LHZ421-441-232115- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0023.230223T0900Z-230224T1500Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the north with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ363-462-230945- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T0900Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Winds gradually weaken through the rest of the day. $$ LHZ422-230945- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T0900Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Winds gradually weaken through the rest of the day. $$ LHZ361-362-231800- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the east with gusts up to 35 knots. The largest significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet. During the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area or conduct mitigation. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LCZ460-232115- /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230223T2200Z-230224T0900Z/ Lake St Clair- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 18 knots from the west with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-232115- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T1500Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-232115- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 335 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the west with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
505 WHUS73 KDTX 231507 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 LHZ361-362-231615- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.CAN.KDTX.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED... East wind to 30 knots continues diminishing through the afternoon. $$ LEZ444-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the west with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-240930- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T1500Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ421-441-240930- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-230224T1500Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the north with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LCZ460-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230223T2200Z-230224T0900Z/ Lake St Clair- 1007 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the west with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
594 WHUS73 KDTX 232122 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 422 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 LEZ444-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 422 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the west with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ442-443-240915- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T1500Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 422 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ421-441-240915- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-230224T1500Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 422 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 23 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LCZ460-240900- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.230223T2200Z-230224T0900Z/ Lake St Clair- 422 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 18 knots from the west with gusts up to 30 knots. The largest significant waves will be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ KK
710 WHUS73 KDTX 240836 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 LEZ444-240945- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 336 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Wind gusts have dropped below Small Craft Advisory thresholds and will continue to diminish through the morning. $$ LCZ460-240945- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T0900Z/ Lake St Clair- 336 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Wind gusts have dropped below Small Craft Advisory thresholds and will continue to diminish through the morning. $$ LHZ442-443-242100- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T2100Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 336 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 24 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Friday with the largest waves expected around 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ421-441-242100- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-230224T2100Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 336 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 19 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 23 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EST Friday with the largest waves expected around 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
681 WHUS73 KDTX 242034 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 334 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 LHZ442-443-242145- /O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230224T2100Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 334 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have decreased below 20 knots and waves are under 4 feet, thus the small craft advisory is cancelled. $$ LHZ421-441-242145- /O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-230224T2100Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 334 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have decreased below 20 knots and waves are under 4 feet, thus the small craft advisory is cancelled. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Feb 21, 8:41 PM EST, 1 hour earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 8:41 PM EST, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
841 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
.UPDATE...
Ongoing mid level frontogenesis across central Wisconsin has been
producing a region of light snow. This fgen forcing will track across
the northern portions of the forecast area overnight, mainly north of
the I-69 corridor. Most recent hi res suite suggest the region of
strongest ascent will remain progressive as it tracks across the
Saginaw Valley and thumb region overnight. This and the expectation
for some weakening of this lead Fgen band will keep accums minimal
(under an inch). The current forecast has a reasonable handle on
this; high pops but with low QPF/snow amounts.
As this lead FGEN band lifts north of the area by 12Z Wed, the main
precip focus will be with the deep layer frontal forcing associated
with the wave lifting into the area from the southwest. No
minor adjustments will be made to the current winter headlines for
this system at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 557 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
AVIATION...
High pressure will influence Se Mi this evening before exiting to
the east overnight. A rapid weakening of the sfc gradient along with
the onset of nocturnal cooling will cause a steady decrease in wind
speeds over the next couple hours. The loss in the diurnal
instability component will also allow some addition decrease in the
coverage of low end VFR based strato cu this evening. A narrow
elevated frontal zone will provide a chance for some light snow at
MBS in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. Otherwise, widespread mixed
precipitation (snow, sleet and freezing rain) will overspread the
southeast Michigan terminals between 15Z and 18Z Wed, with peak
precipitation rates expected late Wed afternoon and evening.
For DTW... Conditions will be relatively quiet through daybreak Wed.
Snow/sleet chances will then increase after 15Z and persist into the
afternoon, transitioning to all freezing rain. Sfc temperatures are
forecast to hover around or just below the freezing mark Wed
afternoon before rising just above Wed evening, so there will likely
be a transition toward all rain.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for a period of freezing rain and sleet Wednesday, dropping
to moderate Wednesday evening.
* High for ceilings below 5000 feet Wednesday.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
DISCUSSION...
An epic battle of air masses will occur over Lower Michigan over the
next 48-60 hours. The southern wave/subtropical moisture currently
over Baja California will be the dominate player, as it is booted
off the to the northeast by the aggressive height falls/upper level
wave/jet dropping south from the Pacific Northwest. Record breaking
or near record moisture content from a climo perspective looks to be
overspreading into southeast Michigan on Wednesday, as 850 MB dew
pts of 10 C reach the southern Michigan border toward evening, with
700 MB dew pts of 0 to 2 C overspreading southeast Michigan,
advected by 70 knot jet. With 850 MB Li's going negative and mid
level lapse rates steeping up (~6.5 C/KM), a few embedded
thunderstorms seem plausible during the evening.
Meanwhile, a glancing blow of arctic air is tracking through Lower
Michigan behind this mornings cold front passage, allowing surface
dew pts to settle into the teens.
For impactful ice storms, surface temperatures of 31-32 degrees vs
30 degrees or colder makes all the difference.
With lack of snow cover over land, there is some concern skin temps
advertised by the models are too cold. Now, there does look to be
some light snow across the north half of the CWA tonight into
tomorrow morning with narrow mid level/700 MB fgen/isentropic ascent
arm, but would expect accumulations to remain under 2 inches.
A bigger concern is the lack of ice cover over Lake Huron and minor
heat flux from the water temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as
easterly flow is locked in tomorrow. Sub 1000 MB surface low will be
tracking into the western Ohio Valley late in the day, and the well
defined warm front will remain south of the Michigan border through
00z. With strong surface high (1035+ MB) building over/near James
Bay through the day, banking on surface winds to actually become
northeast in the afternoon, which should allow for shallow cold
advection as colder air from southern Ontario bleeds in which will
attempt to offset the latent heat release of the freezing rain and
warming 850 MB temps rising into the mid to upper single numbers
Wednesday evening south M-59. Very tight north-south baroclinic zone
over the Central Great Lakes makes for difficult forecast
determining advisory/warning for the various tiers of counties. With
mid level dry slot overtaking all of southeast Michigan after
midnight, banking on a significant break in precipitation to end
this first phase/event before the second low arrives during the day
on Thursday. That low looks to be tracking significantly farther
north, thus any possible winter weather advisory decision should be
confined to the northern part of the CWA. However, the rise/fall
pressure couplet late in the day with the cold advection will have
to be considered for a wind advisory for much of southeast Michigan
with 40+ knots of flow at 925 MB and 50 knots at the 850 MB level.
As far as the decision points for tomorrow afternoon/evening, bulk
of the 12z hires solutions ARW/regional GEM/Euro are adamant in the
surface cold air holding, and locations along/M-46 should be deep
enough in the cold air to maintain snow with some sleet mixing in at
times with warm layer in and just below 10 kft coming advancing in.
Will go with winter storm warning for 4-8 inches of snow/sleet
(lower end if more sleet mixes in). The I-69 corridor looks to be in
for a wintry mix bag of precip. Although we may come up short with
the individual elements snow/sleet, enough of concern/expectation
for freezing rain/ice accumulations to near quarter of an inch and
will go with a winter storm warning. More solid ice storm warning
conditions anticipated along the M-59 corridor extending into
Washtenaw county. Based off the ice accumulation calculator and
using a temp of 30 degrees, qpf of 1 inch, and expected winds around
15 knots...ice accumulation of quarter of an inch to half an inch
(radial) looks reasonable. That amount of ice will be capable of
taking down tree branches and lead to possible scattered power
outages.
With marginal freezing surface temps over Wayne and Lenawee/Monroe,
as well as the warmer rain drops with the deeper warm layer, will
just be carrying an winter weather advisory for ice accumulations
around tenth, with northern Wayne around two tenths before complete
changeover to rain occurs early Wednesday evening.
Much colder air settles into the region Friday in the wake of the
departing system - the air mass characterized by 850mb temps in the
negative middle teens Celsius. Northwest winds will gradually taper
off as the pressure gradient relaxes during the day, but with highs
in the teens to 20s, we can expect wind chills to hold in the single
digits to teens through the afternoon. Cold advection over the still
open waters of Lake Michigan will bring a good coverage of lake
effect clouds with boundary layer thermodynamic profiles offering a
slight chance for some flurries if enough moisture can traverse
across the state.
The cold will be short lived as a warm front is on track to lift
across the area Saturday morning. This feature will bring a chance
for some light snow mainly the first half of the day, then temps
should return to near normal values in the lower to mid 30s by the
afternoon. A clipper drops into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening,
leading to a surface low developing near Lake Superior that drags a
cold front through. This shot of cooler air will only graze the area
on Sunday as medium range guidance advertises a deeper low
developing in the lee of the Rockies and bringing a stronger push of
warm air late Sunday into Monday. The next round of widespread
precipitation is likely on Monday as this system tracks across the
region.
MARINE...
Gale potential will quickly dwindle across most locations outside of
northern Lake Huron as the strong low-level jet associated with a
low pressure system shifts east out of the Great Lakes. Attention
then quickly turns to the next winter storm system which will bring
a multitude of weather types along with the return of gales for the
greater portion of the Great Lakes.
An elevated frontal boundary will initially bring light snow across
Lake Huron starting early tomorrow morning. Snow chances will
continue through the day with snow intensity expected to increase
through the late evening hours into early Thursday morning as low
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. The Saginaw Bay and portions
of central and northern Lake Huron will be subject to the stronger
snow rates which will produce drastic drops to visibilities at
times. For southern Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair, freezing rain and
sleet are likely through the afternoon into early Thursday morning
leading to icing concerns on vessels, while rain is the most likely
precipitation type for western Lake Erie.
For winds, wind direction will flip from northwest to east-northeast
in advance of the approaching low pressure system. Sustained wind
speeds and gust will increase in intensity as a strong pressure
gradient develops over Michigan. Sustained winds to or just above 30
knots along with gusts to gales will be likely across the Saginaw
Bay into central and north-central Lake Huron. There is high
confidence for gust to gales lasting through Wednesday into Thursday
morning, where a Gale Watch is currently in effect. The Gale Watch
does extend into Thursday evening, however, confidence is lower
regarding these gales as it will be pending the path of a secondary
low pressure system, projected to fill in across southern Michigan
on Thursday. Gale potential is increasing for St. Clair and Erie on
Thursday with this low pressure, thus considerations for a gale
watch/warning will be made with future updates.
HYDROLOGY...
A widespread area of precipitation will expand across the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night. While the potential exists for some
of this precipitation to fall as a frozen wintry mix, areas
particularly from the I-69 corridor south are expected to witness a
period of freezing rain transitioning to rain. Higher intensity
rainfall rates are expected at times, with even the possibility of
rumbles of thunder. This will contribute to rainfall amounts
reaching or exceeding an inch in many locations. This will result in
very minor flooding within poor drainage areas and rivers rising to
bankfull.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062.
Ice Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
MIZ063-068>070-075.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ076-
082-083.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for
LHZ361>363.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF/TF
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 3:40 PM EST, 6 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 MIZ047>049-053>055-221645- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac- 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Light snow will likely develop tonight, but accumulations should only top out around 1 inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A winter storm warning is in effect for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, refer to the latest winter weather message for details. Light freezing rain is possible on Thursday followed by gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph late in the day into the evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ060>062-221645- Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A winter storm warning is in effect for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, refer to the latest winter weather message for details. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected late Thursday into Thursday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ063-068>070-075-221645- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw- 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday An ice storm warning is in effect for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, refer to the latest winter weather message for details. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected late Thursday into Thursday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ076-082-083-221645- Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A winter weather advisory is in effect late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening, refer to the latest winter weather message for details. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected late Thursday into Thursday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-221645- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 340 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A gale watch is in effect for Lake Huron late Wednesday through Thursday, refer to the latest marine forecast for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. SF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 9:41 PM EST | Gale Warning | DTX | 36 hr | |
| Feb 22, 9:59 AM EST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | DTX | 24 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Michigan, 2023Every small craft advisory in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.