Tornado Warning 37, NWS Des Moines, IA

641 
WWUS53 KDMX 132053
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAC099-153-132115-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-231013T2115Z/
Polk IA-Jasper IA-
353 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN POLK AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES...
    
At 352 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Mingo, or 14 miles northeast of Altoona, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Polk and northwestern Jasper Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4184 9341 4186 9331 4186 9328 4180 9328
      4178 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 164DEG 9KT 4181 9331 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Fowle

095 
WWUS53 KDMX 132103
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
403 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAC099-153-132113-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-231013T2115Z/
Polk IA-Jasper IA-
403 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Iowa.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Des Moines .

LAT...LON 4184 9341 4186 9331 4186 9328 4180 9328
      4178 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 157DEG 10KT 4184 9333 

$$

Fowle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Thursday/
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Take Home Points:

* Windy conditions ease today
* Increasing potential for landspouts or short lived tornado or two
* Cloudy/dreary and a few showers hang on through Saturday
* Cool weekend and early week, then warming into mid-week

Discussion:

As of early this morning, bulk of initial Thursday evening/night
storm activity had dissipated into general showers or thunder as it
slid away from the better CAPE-shear environment and into less
favorable air mass over northern Iowa. In its wake, additional
convective activity over areas of western/southwest Iowa and
northwest Missouri generated near the warm front and within the
broad flow and lift. As they are closer to the surface low, they
reside within an environment of 500+ MUCAPE and strong effective
shear that may be capable of supporting a strong to marginally
severe storm or two. Primary concern would revolve around hail and
wind, and would diminish as these storms are expected to outpace
the more supportive environment nearer the surface low. This
activity is likely to continue into the morning, eventually
pushing east and north as the parent systems move into Iowa.

With festering shower/storm activity likely through the morning, the
risk for additional strong to severe storms this afternoon is a
little muddled with some question as to how much instability and
organization the warm sector will be able to achieve. The well
advertised stacking of the surface and upper level systems as they
move across central/southern Iowa muddles things a bit as well,
resulting in a weaker deep layer shear environment. That said,
there is growing/strong consensus within hi-res guidance of 500 to
near 1000 J/kg SBCAPE driven by nominal insolation/heating and
some mid level cooling, including upwards of 100-150+ J/kg within
the 0-3km layer. Even with less overall deep layer shear, there
does appear to be enough to potentially achieve periods of
organization. Hodographs are a bit of a mixed bag too, suggesting
possible periods of streamwise dominant low level vorticity. Add
in very low LCLs and good ambient surface vorticity near the
surface low and there is certainly the possibility of a tornado or
two, but may ultimately be more of a funnel/landspout fest with
questions in ability to organize. A few of the stronger updrafts
may also be able to achieve marginally severe hail with freezing
levels only around 9-10kft, especially if upper end instability is
able to be achieved. This window of activity to be from around
1pm through 7pm before it weakens and predominantly slides into
eastern Iowa.

Phew. As the system continues to depart Friday night and Saturday,
expect cloudy skies, breezy northerly winds, and a few additional
showers to persist through Saturday. Seasonably cool conditions then
to prevail into early next week, warming back into the 60s by mid-
week. At that point, the next weather maker and cool off remains on
track for the region as a trough drops out of Canada along the
Rockies later Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Scattered showers and storms over the region through mid evening
with the focus of storms at KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. IFR conditions north
and east will settle south through the periods. Drizzle could
persist most sites through the night along with IFR or lower cigs.
Several wind direction shifts are expected as low pressure moves
east over Iowa. It will be windy at times.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Donavon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
338 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-142045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
338 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon
into the evening, some which may be strong to severe. A few weak
tornadoes remain possible into tonight across portions of
southeastern into north central Iowa. Lightning and periods of
locally heavy rainfall are also possible with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed this afternoon into the early evening.
Rainfall reports are always appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAZ023-024-035-131945-
Humboldt IA-Webster IA-Pocahontas IA-
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...
SOUTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES THROUGH
245 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Fort Dodge Regional Airport, or 10 miles northwest of
Fort Dodge, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail and additional rainfall up to one inch.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Ponding of
         water on roadways, low visibilities, and rises in small
         streams and creeks.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Dodge, Humboldt, Fort Dodge Regional Airport, Gilmore City,
Barnum, Clare, Rutland, Pioneer, Frank A Gotch State Park, and
Humboldt Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central, north
central and northwestern Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 9418 4249 9442 4252 9444 4256 9444
      4256 9446 4276 9459 4281 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 172DEG 17KT 4258 9435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Jimenez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
247 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAZ047-048-060-132015-
Story IA-Boone IA-Polk IA-
247 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL POLK...WESTERN
STORY AND NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms over western Story and eastern Boone counties, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ames, Nevada, Story City, Huxley, Slater, Gilbert, Iowa State Center,
Cambridge, Kelley, and Ames Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 101 and 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 9349 4183 9365 4215 9389 4221 9360
      4221 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 165DEG 23KT 4192 9364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Jimenez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

IAZ047-048-060-132030-
Story IA-Boone IA-Polk IA-
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
STORY AND EAST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms in
northeast Polk county Bondurant, moving northwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ames, Ankeny, Nevada, Bondurant, Huxley, Slater, Iowa State Center,
Maxwell, Cambridge, Elkhart, Alleman, Sheldahl, Kelley, and Ames
Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 94 and 116.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 9335 4177 9335 4168 9351 4197 9381
      4209 9348 4186 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 154DEG 24KT 4178 9348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Jimenez

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
313 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     Funnel Cloud     1 N Ames                42.03N 93.62W
10/13/2023                   Story              IA   Trained Spotter

            A few funnel clouds were seen, which lasted
            for a few minutes before dissipating.

&&

AB