Tornado Warning 25, NWS Des Moines, IA

610 
WWUS53 KDMX 132346
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
646 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

IAC125-132355-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230514T0000Z/
Marion IA-
646 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4129 9333 4131 9333 4140 9332 4139 9319
      4128 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 183DEG 7KT 4137 9328 

$$

KCM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
615 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Key Messages:

-Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon and Evening
-Showers and Non-Severe Storms Lingering Through Sunday
-Quiet and Drier to Begin The Week

The surface low pressure system responsible for convection out west
last night is slowly but surely tracking north and east closer to
the area today. Its associated warm front has been the focal
point for convection this afternoon as an unstable atmosphere
takes advantage of increasing winds and the resultant
convergence. There is no shortage of 0 to 3km instability and the
low level directional shear is favorable for rotating storms as
winds veer with height. However, the limiting factor today will be
the speed shear, with minimal change in wind speeds with height.
Although this may hinder the threat, tornadoes are still possible,
especially with very low LCLs and good stretching potential. With
moderate deep layer instability and shear, organized storms will
also be capable of producing hail and gusty winds as well.

In addition to the severe threat this afternoon, storms backbuilding
along the boundary may result in some locally heavy rainfall
amounts, especially in northern Iowa where the front will be
pivoting around the surface low. The moisture profiles don't jump
off the page but they should be sufficient for locally heavy
rainfall beneath stronger storms. A few locations across northern
Iowa have seen some moderate rainfall over the last few days, so
there is some concern for localized flooding impacts should storms
sit over a particular area for an extended period of time. As of
right now, with some uncertainty on how storms will evolve through
the afternoon and evening, will just continue to closely monitor the
flooding potential in northern Iowa.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to fester along the boundary
through the night and should fall below severe thresholds late this
evening. As the surface low begins to fill in and weaken, high
pressure will begin to push down from the north. This will bring
cooler temperatures to the state on Sunday, as well as gusty winds
along the pressure gradient between the decaying low pressure and
approaching high pressure. With all the moisture that remains
pooled over the state from the last few days, expect scattered
showers with a few thunderstorms to continue to develop through
the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. Any thunderstorms that
do develop will be non-severe.

Looking out to the beginning of the week, high pressure sets in
and upper level ridging develops. This takes us into a relatively
quiet and dry pattern with warming temperatures through the
beginning of the week. Precipitation chances look to return mid
week as a few waves move through the overall pattern. Guidance
also indicates a larger scale system dropping down into the
midwest during the second half of next week, which could bring
some more precipitation chances. However, since this is so far
out, not much more can be determined at this time.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Main aviation concerns surround convective and ceiling trends
over the TAF period. There are two separate area of storms at the
start of the period that are forecast to become more scattered
into the evening as they lift northward. Ceilings will drop from
low end VFR or MVFR into IFR at all sites overnight into Sunday
morning. Additional scattered showers are expected to develop
through the day before drying pushes in from the north. Winds will
be brisk from the east and northeast over the north tonight,
which will spread southward through the day on Sunday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
407 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-142115-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
407 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
over portions of central and northern Iowa this afternoon and
evening. Main impacts will be brief tornadoes and locally heavy
rainfall, but small hail and gusty winds are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few non-severe thunderstorms may be possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Dodson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW HARVEY            41.35N 93.00W
05/13/2023                   MARION             IA   STORM CHASER

            WEAK TORNADO.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
429 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW HARVEY            41.32N 92.95W
05/13/2023                   MARION             IA   STORM CHASER

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
438 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               41.32N 93.10W
05/13/2023  E3.00 INCH       MARION             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH STANDING WATER
            AND STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TORNADO          2 SW FONDA              42.56N 94.88W
05/13/2023                   POCAHONTAS         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
527 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TORNADO          1 NE SCRANTON           42.03N 94.53W
05/13/2023                   GREENE             IA   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF WEAK ROPE TORNADO.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW POCAHONTAS        42.71N 94.76W
05/13/2023                   POCAHONTAS         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&