Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Forecast Impacts for the week:

...Lingering storms this evening/showers Sunday
...Cooler Monday/Tuesday & Mid to late week heat/scat storms
...Cooling into weekend

Confidence Short Term: High

Severe storms the main concern this afternoon and early evening.
Ongoing convection over north central along US20 continues to
increase while another area of concern is the south along the old
outflow boundary which is currently situated from southwest to
central Iowa, extending from US71 in the west southeast to between
US34 and US92. Initial development likely to include supercells with
all modes possible. As upper level wave moves into the area this
afternoon, storms will begin to migrate east into eastern Iowa.
After the storms exit later this evening, expecting a lull for
several hours with another round of more elevated storms over
northern Iowa into the morning hours. Sunday, the upper level low
begins to swing south with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected to redevelop in the later morning and afternoon hours.
Lingering showers will continue into Sunday night, but then by early
Monday morning most of the showers will have exited. Lows tonight
will drop to the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Highs
Sunday along with stronger west winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph
will range from the the upper 60s northwest to the upper 70s
southeast. We will continue to trend lower on temperatures into
Sunday night with lows dropping into the upper 50s north to the
lower 60s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/Forecast Impacts for the week:

...Lingering storms this evening/showers Sunday
...Cooler Monday/Tuesday & Mid to late week heat/scat storms
...Cooling into weekend

Confidence Short Term: High

Severe storms the main concern this afternoon and early evening.
Ongoing convection over north central along US20 continues to
increase while another area of concern is the south along the old
outflow boundary which is currently situated from southwest to
central Iowa, extending from US71 in the west southeast to between
US34 and US92. Initial development likely to include supercells with
all modes possible. As upper level wave moves into the area this
afternoon, storms will begin to migrate east into eastern Iowa.
After the storms exit later this evening, expecting a lull for
several hours with another round of more elevated storms over
northern Iowa into the morning hours. Sunday, the upper level low
begins to swing south with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected to redevelop in the later morning and afternoon hours.
Lingering showers will continue into Sunday night, but then by early
Monday morning most of the showers will have exited. Lows tonight
will drop to the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Highs
Sunday along with stronger west winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph
will range from the the upper 60s northwest to the upper 70s
southeast. We will continue to trend lower on temperatures into
Sunday night with lows dropping into the upper 50s north to the
lower 60s southeast.
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Confidence: Medium

After the system exits the region by Monday afternoon, lingering
showers will be possible east during the day as some lingering lift
and cyclonic circulation remains over the region. High pressure will
cross the region and keep the region dry for the next 36 hours. A
developing lee side system and some return of moisture will enter
the picture by late Tuesday night into Wednesday as scattered
overnight storms return to our western areas mainly west of I35.
Though bulk wind shear will be favorable for some stronger storms
Wednesday, it appears that instability will be somewhat limited
until late afternoon when H700 temperatures warm to +10 to +12C,
possibly limiting convective development. As we move deeper into the
extended, the models diverge on timing of another more significant
wave. The Euro lags the GFS in bringing a round of thunderstorms
with the GFS showing another round by Thursday afternoon into Friday
afternoon while the Euro is favoring a Friday into Saturday timing.
Overall, we will continue to warm into the mid to late week with the
warmest day expected to to Thursday as highs reach the mid 80s north
to the lower to mid 90s in the far south. Depending on the timing of
the late week system, we may hold onto another very warm day for
Friday with similar highs expected. The passage of the system will
turn back the dial on temperatures with H850 temperatures lowering
to the low to mid 10s; bringing afternoon highs back to the 70s and
lower 80s with more comfortable levels of humidity for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Scattered convection continues into 02z east of I35 with
secondary development south of I80 and north of US30 aft 04z. As
front sweeps through, west winds increase/gust 30kt with
additional scat storms aft 11z Sunday north third. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-251945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours east of
I35 over central Iowa. In addition to the risk of lightning, very large
hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Storm chances will linger Sunday across the northeast half of the
state. These storms appear unlikely to become severe.

Several round of thunderstorms will return to the region later
this week on Wednesday and again for Thursday through Saturday.
The extent in coverage and severe potential will be better
determined in the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed into this evening.

REV

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
549 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Marne               41.45N 95.15W
06/24/2023                   Cass               IA   Public

            Social media report of multiple large
            branches downed on road 2 miles west of
            Marne.

&&

Fowle

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
600 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Hail             1 SE Eldon              40.90N 92.20W
06/24/2023  E1.00 inch       Wapello            IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Fowle

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
811 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Hail             Indianola               41.36N 93.57W
06/24/2023  E1.75 inch       Warren             IA   Broadcast Media

            Delayed report with time estimated. Via KCCI
            viewer.

&&

Ansorge

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
934 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     Hail             5 W Wesley              43.08N 94.09W
06/24/2023  E1.25 inch       Kossuth            IA   Public

            Public report from east of Algona on Highway
            18. Location estimated from radar.

&&