Tornado Warning 1, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
207 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with severe storms
possible. Fairly quiet weather for the rest of the week once those
pass, with a warming trend into the weekend and beyond.

Morning showers and embedded thunderstorms spurred along by an area
of WAA have been steadily pushing east out of the area early this
afternoon, leaving behind an area of clearing across northern
Minnesota in the warm sector of our approaching low pressure. This
area has seen a blossoming of higher dew points, growing CAPE, and
steep low level lapse rates since late this morning, with the
occasional agitated cu development seen on satellite beginning as of
the writing of this discussion. Slightly further south a nice upper
level jet is coursing across the Midwest, gifting an area of nice
shear across central Minnesota. Across the occluded front of the low
pressure in far southern Manitoba, convection has already initiated
and grown southeastward towards the International Border.

Through this afternoon, expecting an area of storms along and in
front of the cold front to fire, with initial discrete cells then
tracking eastward. Along Highway 2 and northwestward over far north-
central MN there does exist a narrow zone and window for a possible
weak tornado. As storms translate southeast, they will enter an
environment closer to that upper level jet, exacerbating the large
hail and damaging wind threat for areas along and south of Highway 2
between Grand Rapids, Duluth, and Iron River - especially for areas
around the I-35 corridor. Across a good portion of this area,
hodographs are very long and straight, exacerbating the large hail
threat with both right and left moving supercells. CAMS continue to
be in agreement that multiple lines of discrete storms come together
this evening and conglomerate into a messier mixed mode of storms
within a less ideal atmosphere, which should begin to decrease the
severe threat, with just rain showers and embedded thunderstorms
continuing into the early morning hours.

After today, a quieter upper level flow for a couple days keeps us
mostly precipitation free Thursday and Friday, before another little
shortwave Saturday brings the chance for some passing scattered
showers. Into next week and the end of July, general mid level
ridging is expected to become dominant, keeping us in a warming
pattern, with a good chance for above normal temperatures into
August 1.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

VFR conditions are returning to most terminals as the first round
of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east and out of the
region. Some MVFR scattered cumulus clouds are possible during a
brief break before the next round of thunderstorms develops later
today. This afternoon and evening expect stronger thunderstorms to
develop and move east, with a messier area of more showery rain
behind the initial round of storms. Heavy rain in thunderstorms
could cause visibilities to drop and large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible. Overnight, as showers and thunderstorms move out
of the region, fog is expected to develop, with the highest
confidence of fog development for HIB, DLH, and HYR. Some
visibilities may drop lower than current TAFs show, but did not have
the confidence to go lower with this forecast issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

A brief period of gusty northeast winds will continue this
afternoon. Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible through this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
hazards. Rain and thunderstorm chances move east overnight into
Thursday and winds switch to be westerly Thursday and Friday. Winds
will be more northeast in the overnight hours and southwest during
the day. Not expecting winds to be too strong but some gusts up to
15 knots possible. This will continue to produce upwelling along the
North Shore. Winds stay southwesterly into the weekend with
occasional chances for passing rain showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  76  56  79 /  80  10   0  20
INL  53  77  53  79 /  60  10   0  20
BRD  58  77  55  79 /  30   0   0  20
HYR  54  75  51  81 /  80  20   0  20
ASX  54  75  56  80 /  80  20   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
906 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201415-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
906 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible this morning/

Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon
into the evening. Threats include hail up to 2 inches in diameter,
damaging wind to 70 mph, and a tornado. The storms will also
produce heavy rain and if multiple storms track over the same
area, minor flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and
into the weekend. Severe weather is not likely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LSZ121-140>148-150-201415-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
906 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible this morning with scattered
strong to severe storms expected this afternoon and evening
across Western Lake Superior. The main threats are large hail and
damaging winds. A waterspout is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic chances for more thunderstorms will occur Friday into
Tuesday.

Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

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