Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe storms expected this afternoon and evening.
  Hail from dime to tennis ball size are possible. Damaging wind
  gusts of 40 to 75 mph are possible.

- Cooler Friday and Saturday.

- Additional storm chances next week.

Rest of the afternoon and this evening:

Thunderstorms erupted this afternoon over the I-35 corridor and
are expected to propagate generally east-southeastward this
evening. Discrete storms are anticipated initially and are
expected to eventually grow upscale into a forward propagating
QLCS. The threat initially is large hail of dime to tennis ball
size and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Once the upscale transition
to a QLCS occurs, the hail risk will decrease and the threat of
wind gusts will increase to 40 to 75 mph. One or more tornadoes
are also possible both from the supercells and also in the QLCS
phase. Heavy rainfall is also anticipated and may lead to
localized minor flooding.

Friday through the weekend:

Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of tonight's cool
front. Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning and could
redevelop in the afternoon. At this time the risk of strong to
severe storms is low. Temperatures continue to cool Saturday and
then start to warm up a few degrees Sunday. A slight chance of
showers and storms returns to the forecast late Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

Monday through Thursday:

The progressive upper-level pattern will continue next week with
several chances of showers and storms. Temperatures warm up Monday
through Wednesday before cooling off again Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Several rounds of thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into
this evening. Wind gusts near storms of 25 to 55 knots are
possible at HIB, BRD, and DLH. Storms will also produce hail from
dime to tennis ball size. Storms which affect HYR may have winds
up to 65 knots. The storms will move out of the area tonight.
General storm motion will be toward the southeast (from the
northwest). Additional storms may develop Friday morning near BRD
and HYR. Will handle those with later updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening from Silver Bay, MN to Duluth to Saxon Harbor, WI. Large
to very large hail of dime to tennis ball size and wind gusts of
30 to 60 knots are possible with these storms. The storms will
move generally toward the southeast and should clear the waters by
mid-evening.

Friday will see strong northeast winds which will create building
waves and dangerous conditions over the southwest arm of Lake
Superior and possibly the Apostle Islands. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed.

Calmer conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  75  55  75 /  40  10  20  10
INL  55  76  52  73 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  62  85  57  78 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  61  84  55  78 / 100  20  20  10
ASX  61  74  55  76 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-281645-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Hot temperatures are forecast again today. Heat indices of 90 to
100 degrees are forecast from the Brainerd Lakes towards Hinckley.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Storms may
be capable of producing damaging winds to around 75 mph and large
hail to tennis ball size. The area where widespread severe storms
are the most likely is from Aitkin to the Twin Ports and
southeast across northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and again at
times next week. At this time a few strong storms are possible,
but widespread severe weather is not expected Friday and next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size, wind
damage, and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-281645-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today. Storms
may be capable of producing large hail to tennis ball size and
gusty winds of 45 to 65 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Northeast winds on Friday of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
will build waves to 2 to 4 feet on the waters of the southwest
arm of Lake Superior.

There will be several chances of thunderstorms next week.

Levens/Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
446 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 S Solon Springs       46.30N 91.82W
07/27/2023  M49 MPH          Douglas            WI   AWOS

            AWOS station KOLG Solon Springs Airport.

&&

JJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
447 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NE Hermantown         46.85N 92.20W
07/27/2023  M46 MPH          St. Louis          MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KDLH Duluth International
            Airport.

&&

JJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
454 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             4 ENE Willow River      46.34N 92.76W
07/27/2023  M1.75 inch       Pine               MN   Trained Spotter

            Heavy rain causing surface runoff and minor
            flooding.

&&

SG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
500 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Hail             3 W Hinckley            46.01N 93.00W
07/27/2023  M1.00 inch       Pine               MN   Trained Spotter

&&