Beach Hazards Statement 4, NWS Duluth, MN

910 
WHUS43 KDLH 070153
CFWDLH

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Duluth MN
853 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MNZ037-WIZ001-070300-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0004.000000T0000Z-230607T0200Z/
Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
853 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Waves are decreasing due to lowering winds, therefore rip 
currents are no longer expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Summary: Cooler temperatures but still mainly dry pattern will
continue for the rest of the week. A more active pattern possible
next week.

Storms are starting to form over north central Minnesota where
instability is greatest behind a slow moving cold front and are
expected to move south through this afternoon and evening. No
severe storms are expected, as we are lacking deep forcing and
shear with these storms which will likely lead to pulse
thunderstorms, much like we've had in the previous week. However,
precipitable water greater than one inch could cause heavier
rainfall and some nuisance ponding where these scattered storms
form. Instability is expected to deplete as the sun sets, and
storms should end in our area overnight.

A similar pattern is expected for Tuesday, but the best
instability and moisture will be to the west of our CWA,
therefore limiting chances for showers and thunderstorms in our
area except for a thunderstorm or two around the Brainerd Lakes
area. Continued elevated northeast flow at the head of Lake
Superior will likely lead to high rip current risk at the
Minnesota and Wisconsin Point Beaches.

Hi-res model guidance is showing some hint of precipitation over
the Northland Wednesday morning, but opted to leave the forecast
dry during that time period with the lack of precipitation
signals from global model guidance. The forecast will remain dry
through Thursday as we stay under the influence of a trapped high
pressure over the Northern Plains, with near critical fire
weather conditions possible both Wednesday and Thursday with areas
of low surface RH in the Minnesota Arrowhead and across most of
northwestern Wisconsin.

For the weekend, global models show a shortwave upper level trough
moving over the Great Lakes region, breaking the ridge block and
bringing the chance for more widespread, albeit light,
precipitation across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR to MVFR haze and mist at most terminals early this morning will
continue for the next couple hours before pushing west and out of
the area. Some area showers are possible at BRD this morning before
sunrise, with an isolated thunderstorm as well. Conditions should
return to all VFR for all terminals later this morning and persist
through the TAF period. Winds out of the east-northeast will build
again this afternoon like they did yesterday, with the best chance
for gusts of 15 knots or greater at DLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Marine fog that formed this morning is expected to continue into
the evening. Confidence is low on the longevity of the fog, but
it should clear either tonight or by midday Tuesday. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect for all near shores. Elevated northeast
winds will continue through Wednesday, bringing the possibility
for Small Craft Advisories in the afternoons, especially for the
head of Lake Superior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  48  66 /  10  10  10   0
INL  58  82  52  75 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  81  53  79 /  30  30  20  10
HYR  55  80  51  79 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  46  65  43  68 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kossen
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Kossen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
917 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-070230-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
917 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated showers and a few storms will linger the rest of this
evening west of the Iron Range.

An Air Quality Alert is in effect for a large portion of our area
through Tuesday afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Drier conditions with gusty east to northeast winds are forecast
Tuesday and Wednesday which may create near critical fire weather
conditions.

Strong northeast winds will likely create a threat of rip
currents on Tuesday for areas near the Twin Ports, including the
beaches of Duluth and Superior.

Isolated thunderstorm chances will be present here and there
through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-070230-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
917 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog will be possible at times tonight, with visibilities
to around 1 to 2 nautical miles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Areas of fog will also linger into Tuesday morning, with
visibilities to around 1 to 2 nautical miles.

Another period of 20 to 25 knot northeast winds are possible
Tuesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on
Tuesday.

Rothstein

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth