Beach Hazards Statement 11, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Key Messages:

1) Gusty winds near the head of the lake will cause potentially
hazardous water conditions for swimmers and smaller sized crafts.

2) Rain begins to overspread the region Saturday evening into
Sunday.

3) Seasonable temperatures are expected for the start of the work
week. Next chance for rain returns late week.

Tonight into Tomorrow:

The hazy conditions currently being seen throughout the area will
continue into tonight as mid-level smoke from Canada slowly
disperses away from our region. Easterly winds are promoting
comfortable conditions outside with a few intermittent clouds
further inland away from the lake breeze. The main focus for the
time being will be gusty winds from the Northeast on Lake
Superior. This has resulted in beach hazard statements for a high
rip current risk being issued for Minnesota Park Point and
Wisconsin Point Beaches until this evening. The hazardous
conditions will continue into tomorrow with a high chance of beach
hazard statements being put out once again for similar areas. The
temperatures tomorrow will be fairly seasonal with highs topping
out in the low 80s.

Saturday evening into Sunday:

As a seasonably strong jet stream moves across plains in the next
couple of days, it will induce cyclogenesis of a strong surface
low. This low will track across the Midwest and into the Southern
Great Lakes by Sunday evening. The low pressure will result in
large-scale moisture transport into the region over the next 24-36
hours. PWATs will be exceeding 1.5 inches which is quite
significant for this time of the year (>90th percentile). This
means that with adequate forcing from upper level features (which
we'll have from an upper level trough), the low pressure will be
able to wring out substantial rain from the moist airmass aloft.
Precipitation totals look to be highest along our southern
counties from Central Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin nearing
an inch. Totals will gradually decrease as you get more north and
east towards the Canadian Border. Additionally, since the low will
track to our south, we won't be expecting much in the way of
severe weather as there will limited instability that will be able
to build before a front moves through the area on Sunday
afternoon. That being said, some embedded non- severe to strong
thunderstorms could be seen. These storms will enhance rainfall
totals which could accumulate quickly at times with such a moist
airmass. The WPC has most of the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday so this is something to
keep an eye on.

Long term:

Following the frontal passage high pressure will build in resulting
in drier conditions as we start the work week. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s for the area. Chances for precipitation return
Wednesday with shower chances persisting through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Main story for this TAF period is haze. No significant condition
reductions should result of this haze other than visibilities
occasionally lowering to MVFR. A growing cumulus field will bring
FEW to SCT cover for HIB and INL this afternoon, which will clear
this evening. There is a slight chance for fog tonight, but there
is currently too much uncertainty to include any fog mentions in
the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Northeast winds for the next 36 hours will cause choppy waters near
the head of the lake. For the remainder of today, and again on
Saturday, wind gusts around 20kts and wave heights nearing 3 feet
will be expected. Small Craft Advisory criteria is unlikely to be
met for now but trends will be watched if winds end up stronger than
currently forecasted. Saturday evening, showers and storms will
overspread the area from southwest to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  76  58  71 /   0  30  50  70
INL  57  81  59  76 /   0  50  70  40
BRD  62  81  60  74 /  10  60  70  60
HYR  61  82  60  74 /   0  20  40  70
ASX  59  81  60  73 /   0  20  30  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...KP/PA
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KP/PA

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