Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

089 
WWUS43 KDDC 241921
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
121 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

KSZ089-090-251045-
/O.UPG.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.231125T0600Z-231126T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KDDC.WS.W.0003.231125T0600Z-231126T0600Z/
Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, 
Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
121 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Comanche and Barber Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 am Saturday to midnight Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>081-251045-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.231125T0600Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Finney-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-
Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Scott City, 
Scott State Lake, Dighton, Ness City, La Crosse, Garden City, 
Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, St. John, Stafford, Macksville, 
Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, 
Haviland, and Pratt
121 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Kansas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>088-251045-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.231125T0600Z-231126T0600Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Clark-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City,
Ulysses, Sublette, Satanta, Elkhart, Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, 
Plains City, Fowler, Ashland, and Minneola
121 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 /1221 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Kansas.

* WHEN...From midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to midnight CST 
  /11 PM MST/ Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

276 
WWUS43 KDDC 250926
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>081-089-090-260000-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Finney-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-
Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Scott City, 
Scott State Lake, Dighton, Ness City, La Crosse, Garden City, 
Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, St. John, Stafford, Macksville, 
Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, 
Haviland, Pratt, Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, 
Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
326 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>088-260000-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Clark-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City,
Ulysses, Sublette, Satanta, Elkhart, Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, 
Plains City, Fowler, Ashland, and Minneola
326 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 /226 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Springer

948 
WWUS43 KDDC 251431
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
831 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ030-031-043>045-063-260600-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Finney-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Scott City, 
Scott State Lake, Dighton, Ness City, and Garden City
831 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ088-260600-
/O.UPG.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Clark-
Including the cities of Ashland and Minneola
831 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Clark County.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ046-064>066-077>081-089-090-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Rush-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-
Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, 
St. John, Stafford, Macksville, Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Coldwater, 
Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
831 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>087-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City,
Ulysses, Sublette, Satanta, Elkhart, Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, 
Plains City, and Fowler
831 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 /731 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

326 
WWUS43 KDDC 252149
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ046-064>066-077>081-088>090-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Rush-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Clark-
Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, 
St. John, Stafford, Macksville, Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Ashland, Minneola, 
Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
349 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow tapering off this evening. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>076-084>087-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-
Haskell-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Scott City, 
Scott State Lake, Dighton, Ness City, Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield,
Garden City, Johnson City, Ulysses, Sublette, Satanta, Elkhart, 
Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, Plains City, and Fowler
349 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 /249 PM MST Sat Nov 25 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of a trace to 1 inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

785 
WWUS43 KDDC 252344
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ043-061-062-074-075-084-260045-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Scott-Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-Morton-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake, Syracuse, 
Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City, Ulysses, and Elkhart
544 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 /444 PM MST Sat Nov 25 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow has ended across far southwest and far west
central Kansas.

$$

KSZ046-064>066-077>081-088>090-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Rush-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Clark-
Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, 
St. John, Stafford, Macksville, Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Ashland, Minneola, 
Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
544 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest 
  Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-044-045-063-076-085>087-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Lane-Ness-Finney-Haskell-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Dighton, 
Ness City, Garden City, Sublette, Satanta, Hugoton, Liberal, 
Meade, Plains City, and Fowler
544 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

360 
WWUS43 KDDC 260106
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
706 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ044-063-076-085-086-260215-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Lane-Finney-Haskell-Stevens-Seward-
Including the cities of Dighton, Garden City, Sublette, Satanta, 
Hugoton, and Liberal
706 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow has ended.

$$

KSZ046-064>066-077>081-088>090-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Rush-Hodgeman-Pawnee-Stafford-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Clark-
Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Jetmore, Hanston, Larned, 
St. John, Stafford, Macksville, Cimarron, Montezuma, Dodge City, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Ashland, Minneola, 
Coldwater, Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
706 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one 
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central and southwest 
  Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-045-087-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Ness-Meade-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Ness City, 
Meade, Plains City, and Fowler
706 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Trego, Ellis, Ness and Meade Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

694 
WWUS43 KDDC 260207
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
807 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ046-064-077-078-088-260315-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Rush-Hodgeman-Gray-Ford-Clark-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Jetmore, Hanston, Cimarron, 
Montezuma, Dodge City, Ashland, and Minneola
807 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow has ended.

$$

KSZ030-031-045-087-260315-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Trego-Ellis-Ness-Meade-
Including the cities of Wakeeney, Pfeifer, Hays, Ness City, 
Meade, Plains City, and Fowler
807 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow has ended.

$$

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-260600-
/O.CON.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Pawnee-Stafford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of Larned, St. John, Stafford, Macksville, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Coldwater, 
Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
807 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Light snow. Little or no additional snow accumulations.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

394 
WWUS43 KDDC 260351
WSWDDC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
951 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-260500-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-231126T0600Z/
Pawnee-Stafford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Comanche-Barber-
Including the cities of Larned, St. John, Stafford, Macksville, 
Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, Pratt, Coldwater, 
Lake Coldwater, Protection, Medicine Lodge, and Kiowa
951 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow has ended across the warned area.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

...Updated Short and Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread winter weather event likely beginning early Saturday
  morning and lasting into Saturday night. 2-4" of snowfall will
  be common for much of the area, with locally higher amounts of
  6+" possible.

- Bitter cold temperatures will filter into southwest KS in the
  wake of the winter storm, with plenty of single digit/low teens
  temperatures and wind chills near zero Sunday and Monday morning.

- Dry, quiet conditions will resume daytime Monday through the
  end of the forecast period amidst a modest warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a powerful upper level
cut-off low has dug its way into the Intermountain West. Short
range guidance indicates this feature will move slowly eastward
during the day Friday, allowing the surface high pressure center
over the northern plains to meander southeast and maintain the
northeasterly winds across southwest KS. This along with mostly
cloudy skies over much of the area will hold temperatures below
freezing throughout the day, with only the far southeast zones
reaching above freezing thanks to the potential for a brief window
of sunshine during the afternoon. Some light snow is possible
favoring the northwest zones as weak shortwave impulses break off
from the main wave and eject into the plains, however
accumulations will likely (>80%) not exceed 1 inch.

Focus then shifts to the winter weather event that will begin
overnight Friday and persist through the day on Saturday. Short
range ensembles agree the closed upper low will weaken slightly
and open during the 06-12Z Saturday time frame, allowing
sufficient PVA on its eastern periphery to resume and faster
forward motion to commence. As the upper wave ejects onto the
central plains, precipitation, falling as all snow, will begin
across the western zones around 07-10Z Saturday, and expand
eastward in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and
evening hours, peaking during the 12-18Z time frame when mesoscale
forcing such as frontogenetic banding are maximized. As per usual,
the location of these bands of enhanced snowfall will likely
remain unknown until we see the whites of their eyes early in the
event owing to the fact we just do not yet have the skill to
pinpoint these features accurately. That said, current thinking is
areas north/east of a Lakin-Meade-Englewood line have the
greatest chance for seeing appreciable snow amounts, as ensemble
probability of snowfall exceeding 3" is above 60%. The EPS
depicts the most robust signal, with much of this area in the
80-100% range for probability of exceeding 3" of snowfall. After
18Z, snowfall will start to erode from west to east as the upper
level trough axis begins to cross southwest KS.

While confidence in this winter weather event is increasing, it
should still be noted there are potential modes of failure
surrounding this forecast that could result in snow totals
underperforming. First, multiple days of dry, northeasterly winds
will result in abundant dry air in place across our area at event
onset. Guidance does suggest the airmass will moisten rapidly, but
if it does not, we will lose QPF to sublimation. Second,
southwest KS historically struggles to squeeze noteworthy QPF from
positively-tilted troughs such as the one we are expecting
Saturday. We have seen this time and time again where guidance
forecasts significant snow totals 1-4 days out, then backs off
last second, and there is no reason to think this wave is any
different. The waves just moves too quickly and we do not have the
time to get significant snow totals outside of mesoscale bands.
Lastly, there will be little jet-level support, as the strongest
jet streak will be displaced too far south of our area to provide
enough lift. All of this considered, it seems the most likely
scenario will be widespread 2-4" of snow from Lakin-Liberal and
east, with locally higher amounts of 6+" wherever the mesoscale
bands set up. The far western zones will miss out on much of the
action, with a trace to 2" expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

Snowfall may still be ongoing at the beginning of the long term
period across the eastern zones, but this activity will quickly
exit to the east as the upper trough advances forward, and all
zones will be dry by sunrise Sunday morning. However, this will
not be the end of the impacts from this system, as medium range
ensembles indicate a strong push of CAA will overspread southwest
KS in the wake of the snowfall. 15-25 mph northwesterly winds
Sunday morning will send temperatures crashing into the single
digits and teens, with wind chills near or just below zero. Monday
morning lows will be even colder, with more widespread single
digits/low teens and wind chills once again hovering around zero.

Daytime Monday through the end of the period, a modest warming
trend appears likely as medium range ensembles suggest weak upper
level ridging will build over the western CONUS, supporting large
scale subsidence and plenty of sunshine over southwest KS.
Afternoon highs are progged to increase from the 30s/low 40s on
Monday to the 40s/low 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023

MVFR stratus has developed over the past few hours across DDC,
GCK, and LBL ahead of a strong upper level low over the
Intermountain West, and these cigs are not expected to recover
until the wave passes late Saturday into early Sunday. HYS is
currently in low-end VFR, but will join the other terminals in
MVFR at some point, most likely near the end of this TAF cycle.
Some light snow is also possible mainly at GCK and HYS during the
12-00Z time frame, but low confidence precluded mentioning -SN in
the TAFs. Otherwise, breezy northeast winds will gradually weaken
through the period, reaching aob 10 kts by 06Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  20  25  14 /  20  80 100  40
GCK  25  17  23  11 /  40  80  90  20
EHA  27  19  29  16 /  30  80  80  20
LBL  30  18  28  13 /  20  80  90  30
HYS  27  18  24  13 /  30  80  90  40
P28  37  25  30  19 /   0  70 100  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250915-
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305 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 /205 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No widespread hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The first winter weather event of the season appears likely
beginning early Saturday and lasting through early Sunday.
Widespread 2-4 inches of snow with locally higher amounts up to 6
inches is forecast. Additionally, bitter cold temperatures are
expected across southwest KS Sunday and Monday morning, with wind
chills just below or near zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer