Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

The upper level pattern will consist of an upper level ridge
building over the Plains with an upper level low digging into the
Intermountain west. A strong upper level jet will be found slicing
through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains.

Towards the surface, a trough of low pressure will bisect the CWA
throughout the short term period. This will lead to light and
variable winds across western Kansas through tomorrow, becoming
southeast tomorrow night. A few CAM models depict an isolated
thunderstorm or two to form across west central Kansas this
evening, otherwise expect scattered mid to upper level clouds
across the forecast area. There could also be an isolated
thunderstorm across south central Kansas this evening, but I
believe most of the activity will remain well south and east of
the CWA. Low clouds are expected to form east of Highway 283 after
midnight tonight with the remainder of the area observing mostly
clear skies. Skies then become mostly clear tomorrow before high
clouds move in to the western zones tomorrow night. No
precipitation is expected tomorrow into tomorrow night. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the low 50s across
west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central
Kansas. Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs
reaching into the mid to upper 80s with the exception of central
Kansas where low 80s will be found. Lows tomorrow night dip to the
lower 60s to around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

During the long term, the upper level low will spin over the
Intermountain West Thursday before being ejected eastward into the
Northern Plains by this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level high
will remain over Mexico. A few disturbances will move through the
flow in between these two features, enhancing lift across central
Kansas. Upper level ridging is then expected to build over the
Rockies as we head into next week.

Towards the surface, lee troughing will intensify across eastern
Colorado Thursday leading to strong southeasterly winds across
western Kansas. This will help bring increased moisture in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. The atmosphere will become
unstable in the afternoon and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible east of Highway 283 during the late afternoon into
evening hours. While coverage may not be great, any sustained
updraft that can overcome inhibition will have access to an
instability/shear environment supportive of supercells. Another
disturbance is expected to move through the area Friday into
Saturday. This will help push a cold front through the area by
Saturday afternoon. Before this does occur, winds are expected to
curl to the southwest on Friday and increase in speed. A few
thunderstorms will be possible across central Kansas, but I
believe most of the precipitation will remain out of the CWA. The
remainder of the long term forecast looks to remain dry as high
pressure dominates the region with northwest flow aloft
suppressing any activity from forming. As for temperatures, highs
look to reach into the upper 80s west to low 80s east Thursday and
Friday. A few places across far southwestern Kansas may reach to
around 90 degrees Friday afternoon. We then cool down into the
upper 70s to mid 80s throughout the remainder of the long term
forecast. Lows will generally be in the 50s with the exception of
central Kansas Friday and Saturday mornings where low 60s will be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

KDDC radar observations show scattered thunderstorms across the
area, in the vicinity of DDC and HYS. Given the overall
unimpressive environment, this activity is not expected to persist
for more than an hour or two, and not directly impact any
terminals either. As such, VFR flying conditions should prevail
across all terminals this TAF period with light and variable
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  86  62  86 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  56  87  61  86 /  20   0  10  10
EHA  55  88  61  89 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  56  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  58  87  61  82 /  20  10  10  20
P28  61  82  63  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Springer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
218 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 /118 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to favor the southeast
counties Tuesday afternoon, across and near Barber county, where
some storms may produce marginally severe outflow winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorm potential is evident both Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening, favoring the eastern zones east of a
dryline. Coverage will likely be isolated, but some storms may be
severe with large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed across southeast counties
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Turner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
653 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             5 SE Alexander          38.41N 99.49W
09/19/2023  E1.00 inch       Rush               KS   Trained Spotter

            Reports of quarter sized hail near 150.

&&

SWB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
658 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Hail             4 E Ensign              37.65N 100.16W
09/19/2023  M1.00 inch       Ford               KS   Storm Chaser

&&

SWB

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