Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Dodge City, KS

251 
WWUS53 KDDC 172303
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

KSC175-172315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-230617T2315Z/
Seward KS-
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN SEWARD COUNTY...

At 603 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hayne, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Kismet and Hayne. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10107 3715 10107 3728 10064 3700 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 227DEG 28KT 3715 10082 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...updated mesoscale...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

60F+ dewpoints have made it up as far as Highway 50. 0-1 km SRH is around
50 m2/s2 along the Oklahoma border and should increase to as high as
100 m2/s2 by 7 pm tonight in that area. Watching a storm south of Liberal
right now that is well ahead of the line of storms farther to the west.
If there were to be a higher tornado potential, it would be with this
storm and the associated higher dewpoints and higher SRH. Otherwise,
the line of storms continues to move east around 30 mph. This line
of storms will run into the higher BL moisture across Kansas and should
strengthen in intensity. Damaging 60 to 90 mph outflows may be possible
this evening across a portion of the FA. QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled
out on the line either. 0-3 km bulk shear is around 30 kt from Syracuse
to Meade, so will half to watch out for squall line tornadoes in that
area in particular.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and tomorrow)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

A stationary boundary exists today from central Kansas southwest to
the Texas panhandle. This front could have mesoscale impacts later
this evening. In the meantime, upslope flow behind the front will continue
this afternoon and evening, particularly for the high plains of Colorado
into western Kansas. As a result of this flow, afternoon storms are
expected to develop across the higher terrain of Colorado. These storms
will eventually start to move across the Kansas prairie mid to late
evening tonight. Expect storms to cross the state line in the 6 to
8 pm timeframe. A squall line of storms is expected by this evening
across western Kansas. Therefore, the main threat with this activity
will be intense convective outflow of 60 to 80 mph. It was interesting
that the RRFS has outflows of 90+ mph. It's a model, so not taking
it verbatim, but still interesting nonetheless the output is that high.
Forecast skew-t/log-p's show a mixed low level BL with plenty of DCAPE
forecast. With upscale growth in combination of the DCAPE, it is would
seem prudent that some seriously strong outflows will be possible this
evening across the FA. The second area of interest for another separate
area of storms is along and south of the front. Here, higher MUCAPE
will be possible in association with the higher dews. Directional shear
is high enough for supercells, although speed shear could be a bit
lacking. The main question for this second area of storms (roughly
SE of KDDC), is what storm mode will be and if storms will interact
with the front or not. If storms remain discrete supercells, the the
main threats would be very large hail and damaging winds. If storms
do interact with the front, then an isolated tornado may be possible
as well. Overall, have much higher confidence of the first area of
storms spreading across the FA then the second area. The front has
already moved fairly well south, so this may limit the potential for
the second area of storms versus the first. Otherwise, for the rest
of the short term, dry conditions are expected Sunday with near normal
temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

We will return back to a normal Summer time pattern Monday. A shortwave
ridge will build over the FA during this period. Highs should peak
into the 90s and the forecast should be storm-free. Shortwave ridging
should continue Tuesday as well with hot highs and dry conditions continuing.
On Wednesday, a weak shortwave will move across the area. This feature
could spark off storms during the evening. Opportunities for storms
will continue for the rest of the business week. Coverage will be widely
scattered/hit-or-miss type of activity. Temperatures should be close
to seasonal normal to finish out the rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

There is some residual MVFR cigs across western Kansas extending into
central Kansas this morning. This is in association with moisture left
over from the overnight rains. This cloud deck will partially erode
today with cigs trending to VFR. Attention then turns to this evening.
A thunderstorm complex is expected to move across the terminals mid
to late evening. +TSRA with outflow winds of 50+ kt will be possible
with this activity, particularly more likely for KGCK/KLBL/KDDC. Some
GR could be possible as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  86  62  93 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  55  87  60  93 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  53  87  58  95 /  70   0   0   0
LBL  55  88  60  96 /  70   0   0   0
HYS  59  86  62  95 /  70   0   0   0
P28  61  87  63  95 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
251 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 /151 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong damaging winds of
70 mph, hail up to 4 inches and heavy rainfall will be possible
after 5pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited Spotter Activation may be required after 5pm south of a
Syracuse to Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt line.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

KSZ086-172300-
Seward KS-
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Seward
County through 600 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liberal, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Liberal around 540 PM CDT.
  Hayne around 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 10107 3724 10078 3700 10063 3700 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 246DEG 30KT 3704 10100

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TATRO