Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Dodge City, KS

464 
WWUS53 KDDC 152227
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSC025-057-069-119-152245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-230615T2245Z/
Ford KS-Meade KS-Gray KS-Clark KS-
527 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND WESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES...

At 526 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Howell to near Fowler to 10 miles south of Meade
State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Minneola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10054 3732 10052 3763 10054 3766 9991
      3734 9990 3700 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 263DEG 27KT 3771 10017 3735 10014 3703 10035 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
413 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

A warm front remains in place from far southwest Kansas into the
eastern Texas Panhandle while a dryline extends from near Elkhart
into west Texas. Widespread convection in a region of 2000+ J/kg of
CAPE has developed over most of Southwest KS. However...strongest
upper jet winds and associated anvil level storm relative flow
exists over Texas and Oklahoma. This is creating an environment
with high water loading in updrafts and associated cold pool
generation over southwest Kansas rather than remaining discrete.
This has supported upscale growth of initial discrete storms into
lines this late afternoon with risk for large hail decreasing
while the wind threat increases. Additionally, slow movement of
storms over the last few hours has created a flash flooding risk
primarily west of highway 83. With an anticipated east to
southeast forward motion of this line of storms...main risk will
shift southeast of southern Kansas by early to mid evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Throughout the short term, we observe an upper-level ridge
dominating the Plains region, while an upper-level trough
maintains its presence over the Intermountain West. The area is
influenced by a robust upper-level jet stream extending from
northwestern Mexico into the Mid Mississippi Valley. As the day
progresses, a notable shortwave disturbance is projected to
traverse from eastern Colorado this afternoon and into western
Kansas during the evening hours. At the surface, a low-pressure
system will track along the Colorado/New Mexico border in the
afternoon, followed by its progression along the Kansas/Oklahoma
border in the evening. Accompanying this system, a warm front will
extend eastward, and a dryline will stretch southward into the
Texas Panhandle, gradually advancing into Oklahoma later in the
evening. Subsequently, persistent south-southeast winds will
maintain an inflow of moist air, with dewpoints reaching the upper
50s to low 60s Fahrenheit by the afternoon.

The atmospheric conditions will undergo significant
destabilization along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, characterized by
steep lapse rates, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)
values exceeding 2000 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear surpassing 30 knots.
Prominent Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) indicate the
development of convection between 18z and 21z along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Initially, these storms may manifest as
discrete supercells, yet rapid consolidation into a mesoscale
convective system (MCS) is expected during their eastward
propagation. The storm motion is anticipated to be eastward and
relatively rapid. These storms are forecast to bring copious
rainfall, and if prolonged precipitation persists over a specific
area, the potential for flooding becomes a concern. The primary
hazards associated with these storms will be substantial hail and
destructive winds. Although the risk is marginal, isolated tornado
occurrences cannot be completely ruled out. The storms are
projected to exit the area by late evening or early overnight,
leading to a subsequent decrease in cloud cover after midnight.
Overnight temperatures will range from the mid-50s along the
Kansas/Colorado border to the low 60s across south-central Kansas.
Additionally, the nocturnal hours will witness a transition to
light and variable winds.

On Friday, mostly clear skies are expected, accompanied by light
northerly winds during the morning hours, which will subsequently
shift to an east-southeast direction in the afternoon. High
temperatures are projected to reach into the 80s. Short term
Ensemble models indicate the likelihood of another shortwave
disturbance emerging from the Rockies during the afternoon,
progressing into western Kansas by the evening. A renewed period
of heightened atmospheric instability is expected, leading to the
development of thunderstorms across eastern Colorado in the early
evening. These storms are anticipated to move eastward overnight.
The primary threats associated with these storms will be large
hail and damaging winds. However, during convective initiation
across southeastern Colorado and extending into far southwestern
Kansas, there remains a slight possibility of isolated tornado
occurrences. While storms may persist into the overnight hours,
the overall cloudiness is expected to be mostly prevalent.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid-50s along the
Kansas/Colorado border to the low 60s across central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Looking ahead, yet another round of storms is anticipated late
Saturday, as another shortwave emerges from the Rockies and
migrates into the Plains region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has issued a slight risk for these storms, with the primary threat
lying south of the forecast area. Subsequently, an upper-level
ridge is projected to build over the Plains region during the
upcoming week, coinciding with the presence of an upper-level low-
pressure system descending into the Pacific Northwest. This
atmospheric pattern will induce southwest flow aloft over western
Kansas. Current ensemble models suggest a drier pattern during
this period. However, it wouldn't be surprising if storms occur on
a few days next week during peak heating. Above-normal
temperatures are anticipated, with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s and lows in the 60s as we head into the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

VFR conditions will prevail early this afternoon with a few mid
to upper level clouds. Thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon and bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions to the
DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals. These storms should move out of the
area by this evening with VFR conditions expected. Winds will
generally be form the south this afternoon with gusts up to 20
knots. Higher gusts will accompany any storms that form late this
afternoon into this evening. Winds behind these system look to
become light and variable overnight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  85  59  81 / 100  30  50  20
GCK  55  83  58  78 / 100  50  60  20
EHA  56  83  57  81 /  10  30  40  10
LBL  56  83  59  81 /  50  30  40  10
HYS  59  88  60  82 /  40  40  70  40
P28  61  88  64  88 /  70  10  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 /235 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across southwest Kansas
between 1pm and midnight. The strongest storms this afternoon and
early this evening will be capable of producing 2 to 4 inch hail
along with wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. A few tornadoes will also
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Friday and
Saturday evening. The main hazards from these storms will be wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph, heavy rainfall and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 1 pm south and west of a
Scott City to Pratt line.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
425 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSZ084-085-152215-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
425 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Morton and
western Stevens Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 425 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Hugoton to near Feterita
to 8 miles west of Elkhart. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Feterita around 430 PM CDT.
  Hugoton around 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 10204 3724 10170 3732 10142 3722 10133
      3701 10128 3700 10130 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 306DEG 50KT 3731 10143 3712 10153 3705 10205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSZ045-064-152215-
Hodgeman KS-Ness KS-
427 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Ness and Hodgeman
Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Utica to 11 miles southwest of Ness City
to 10 miles north of Howell. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Arnold around 430 PM CDT.
  Ransom around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Jetmore, Bazine
and Hanston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9960 3792 9959 3792 10021 3827 10021
      3868 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 252DEG 27KT 3868 10012 3831 10001 3793 10014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSZ087-088-152200-
Meade KS-Clark KS-
429 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Meade
and northwestern Clark Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Minneola, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Minneola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 10010 3747 10018 3747 9983 3723 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 175DEG 10KT 3727 9999

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Flash Flood      11 NNE Hickok           37.69N 101.12W
06/15/2023                   Grant              KS   Public

            Report of a road flooding and vehicle
            stranded along County Road 5 received via
            mPING.

&&

MU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
446 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Sublette          37.50N 100.83W
06/15/2023  M60 MPH          Haskell            KS   AWOS

            AWOS station K19S 1 NE Sublette.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
453 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

KSZ064-077-078-152245-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
453 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Ford, southern
Hodgeman and northeastern Gray Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Kalvesta to near Ensign.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Howell around 505 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Dodge City,
Spearville and Ft. Dodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 9962 3752 9988 3767 10053 3796 10039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 277DEG 18KT 3793 10020 3770 10027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID