Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.Key Message...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 11 pm CDT along and
west of a Hays to Ness City to Kalvesta to Cimarron and Meade.

Slow moving strong to severe thunderstorms continue across Trego
and portions of Ellis counties through sunset. Mainly heavy
rainfall, hail up to one inch and frequent lightning can be
expected from these storms early this evening. Another area of
strong to severe thunderstorms will be located west of a Garden
City to Liberal line between 7 and 11 pm. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will move east out of eastern Colorado and across
southwest Kansas between 7 p and 11 pm. Wind gusts in excess of
70 mph, 1 to 2 inch hail along with occasional heavy rainfall will
be possible from these storms, especially near the Colorado
border.

.Technical Discussion...

Ongoing thunderstorms continue across north central Kansas through
sunset. These will be slow moving storms given the weak steering
flow which will produce heavy rainfall along with hail and
frequent lightning. The second and more significant area of
interest will be thunderstorms that were just starting to move
into portions of far western Kansas as of 6pm CDT. These storms
will be moving in to a more unstable and moist air mass which
would support ongoing convection and possible strengthening over
the next few hours. Effective shear of 20 to 25 knots now observed
from SPC MESOanalysis and dcape values between 1000 and 1500 over
western kansas. Large hail and strong damaging winds still looks
possible as these storms move across far southwest kansas early
tonight. Heavy rainfall may also be an issue given the weak flow
aloft and mid level instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Strong damaging winds possible this Tuesday evening across
portions of southwest Kansas.

The near term models show overall agreement regarding the
development of afternoon convection along a surface boundary
stretching from southeast Colorado into northwest Kansas,
coinciding with the approach of an upper level disturbance from
the west. As noted in the SPC day one outlook, the storms that do
form are likely to be high-based and exhibit potential for upscale
organization as they progress eastward late in the day and early
tonight. This supports strong damaging winds this evening from
these storms along with heavy rainfall and hail. Confidence is
further increase for the strong damaging winds early tonight given
that at 18z am already noticing 1400 dcape on the SPC
MesoAnalysis page. Taking this into account the latest the
latest updated to the SPC severe weather outlook for today
looks good with introducing an enhance risk for severe
thunderstorms west of highway 83 with the main threat being strong
damaging winds in excess of 75 mph. After 03z the threat of
severe weather should decrease given the expected diurnal cooling
and the more stable environment these storms will be moving into.

On Wednesday any lingering early morning precipitation coming to
an end and this should allow the atmosphere to recover before our
next upper wave emerges from New Mexico and moves into eastern
Colorado. There will be a slight chance for isolated to scattered
afternoon convection but based on the latest High-Resolution
Ensemble Forecast (HREF), the highest probability of convection
will be concentrated in extreme southwest Kansas as the next
upper-level trough approaches. Once again, there is the potential
for strong gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall from the
strongest storms, particularly late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Consequently, localized flash flooding may occur in a few
locations in extreme southwest Kansas due to the heavy rainfall
during this period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Ongoing daily rainfall chances can be expected in the later periods.

The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles remain consistent with yesterday's
model runs, depicting multiple upper waves within a moist
southwesterly flow moving across the Western High Plains late in
the week. Simultaneously, an upper level trough positioned over
the western Great Lakes will gradually progress westward toward
the Northern Plains. Each of these upper waves presents an
opportunity for thunderstorm development across southwest Kansas
on Thursday and Friday. Given the forecasted high precipitable
water levels across western Kansas and the weak flow aloft, heavy
rainfall is expected from these storms on both days. Furthermore,
these storms may also generate gusty winds and hail, particularly
in the early evening hours.

As we transition into the weekend, the upper level high is
projected to briefly linger over the northern plains. This
placement will result in an 500mb deformation zone either over or
near southwest Kansas which will maintain the potential for
convection each day. However, details regarding the precise
location of this deformation zone (enhanced precipitation chances)
are uncertain at this point. Based on recent trends in the
ensembles and 24-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
clusters suggest a greater likelihood of ongoing daily convection
in extreme southwest Kansas compared to north central Kansas. This
multiple day of rainfall west of Garden City to Liberal line in
the extended periods will result in an increased risk of local
water related issues. It would not be surprising if the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) indicates an increased risk of excessive
rainfall for portions of extreme southwest Kansas later in the
week or over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Storms have already formed across the Interstate 70 corridor. The very
near term concern is KHYS being impacted by +TSRA. This threat will
continue for the next few hours. Elsewhere, have the highest confidence
that KGCK and KLBL to be impacted by - to + TSRA mid to late evening.
The main impact will be severe outflow winds from the storms. Will
continue to monitor the situation as overall flow is weak. The storms
may weaken in intensity all together as they approach these two terminals.
Storms may struggle to make it all the way east to KDDC. Again, will
amend any watch the TAFs as the event unfolds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  83  60  77 /  40  30  60  60
GCK  59  83  59  76 /  50  30  60  50
EHA  57  81  57  75 /  60  30  60  60
LBL  60  81  59  75 /  50  40  60  60
HYS  60  88  62  79 /  40  20  50  70
P28  63  86  64  80 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
248 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-310800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
248 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 /148 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Severe weather and heavy rain are possible between the Colorado
border and the US 83 corridor late this afternoon and tonight
between 4-10 pm. Main threats will be downburst winds greater than
60 mph and localized heavy rainfall which could lead to flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe weather and heavy rain are possible pretty much every day
during the day two through seven period. Wednesday will have
severe weather chances again from the Colorado border to the US 83
corridor in the evening with large hail, gusty winds, and heavy
rain all possible. A stronger storm system on Friday will need to
be watched closely as severe weather with tornado potential could
be possible from southwest Kansas through the Texas panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for areas west of the US 83
corridor after 4pm today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
828 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             2 E SCOTT CITY          38.48N 100.87W
05/30/2023  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
829 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E SCOTT CITY          38.48N 100.87W
05/30/2023  E70 MPH          SCOTT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED 55 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW GRIGSTON          38.47N 100.73W
05/30/2023  M67 MPH          SCOTT              KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW2812 SCOTT CITY.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
05/30/2023  M73 MPH          FINNEY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KAKE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE RIGA              38.93N 99.64W
05/30/2023  M2.30 INCH       TREGO              KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            NWS RAIN GAUGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AS OF
            8:15 PM.

&&

GT