Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Dodge City, KS

803 
WWUS53 KDDC 110008
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
708 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

KSC119-175-110100-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-230911T0100Z/
Seward KS-Meade KS-
708 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SEWARD AND MEADE COUNTIES...

At 708 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northwest of Plains to near Hayne, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Plains, Missler, Meade State Park and Meade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10083 3736 10021 3700 10031 3700 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 287DEG 22KT 3735 10073 3703 10082 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SUGDEN

600 
WWUS53 KDDC 110034
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
734 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

KSC119-175-110044-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-230911T0100Z/
Seward KS-Meade KS-
734 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SEWARD AND MEADE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3739 10083 3736 10021 3700 10031 3700 10092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 287DEG 22KT 3731 10055 3699 10064 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...Updated Mesoscale...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Long lived supercell was moving south through Haskell county at
620 pm, producing hail up to tennis ball size. The amount of hail
ice generation and the strength of the cold RFD is expected to
continue to prevent tornado development. The environment south and
west of this storm continues to support further supercell
development, confined now to far southwest Kansas. Elsewhere, the
lack of instability is increasing as the cooler airmass begins to
take hold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

During the short-term forecast period, the synoptic pattern will
be characterized by the presence of an upper-level high pressure
system situated over northern Mexico and along the border.
Concurrently, a long-wave trough will be digging into the Northern
Plains through Monday. Between these two features, a series of
weak shortwave disturbances will slide through the region, moving
through the Central Plains from tonight through Monday. Upper
level ridging then builds over the Rockies Monday into Monday
night.

Current satellite trends show ample cloud cover remaining over
central Kansas with clearing across eastern Colorado and far
western Kansas. At the surface, a cold front is currently draped
along the KS/NE border. This cold front is expected to slide
southward this evening and into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow. The
atmosphere across far western Kansas will become very unstable
this afternoon with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg and 0-6 shear
over 30 knots. Short term CAM models depict thunderstorms
development along the cold front late this afternoon and continue
into this evening as it slides southward. A few storms across far
western Kansas are expected to become severe with large hail
being the main threat initially, moving into more of a wind threat
as time progresses. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
Additional storms are expected to continue overnight as another
disturbance moves through the area. Drizzle or even patchy fog may
be a concern tomorrow morning but visibility look to remain above
a mile at this time. Mostly cloudy skies continue throughout the
day with precipitation ending from north to south as the day
progresses. Cloudiness should then decrease from north to south as
we head into tomorrow night, generally north of Highway 50. Other
areas may remain cloudy as we head into Tuesday morning. Winds
through the short term will start out from a southeasterly
direction this afternoon, shifting to the northeast behind the
cold front this evening into the overnight hours. These
northeasterly winds continue through Monday before coming light
and variable Monday night. Temperatures during the short term
forecast will range from the mid 50s across west central Kansas to
low 60s across south central Kansas for Lows. Highs tomorrow only
look to reach into the 60s due to the ample cloud cover and
scattered rain showers. Lows tomorrow night range from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

The upper level ridge over the Plains will quickly be pushed
eastward as a weak upper level disturbances in westerly flow
traverses from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday down into the
Plains by Friday. Several shortwaves are depicted to move through
the area during this time frame and bring increased chanced of
rain across western Kansas. Surface based instability will be
lacking so I believe most of these showers will fall as stratiform
rain. Exact timing and placement of these showers remain uncertain
so future model runs will need to be watched. It is possible that
given the stable lower levels that much of the heavier rain will
pass to the south of Kansas, or along the southern tier from
Coldwater to Elkhart. Below normal temperatures are expected
throughout the short term due to the ample cloud cover and
scattered rain showers. Highs Tuesday look to reach into the 70s
with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. We may struggle
to get to around 70 degrees Friday depending on how much cloud
cover there is. We then rebound into the 70s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

High confidence flight categories will degrade sharply during this
TAF cycle, as a strong cold front passes south through SW KS.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected near GCK/LBL/DDC over the
next few hours, consolidating into an MCS during the 00-03z Mon
time range. Using 12z ARW as a guide, included convective TEMPO
groups in the early stages of this TAF cycle. Primary risks from
thunderstorms will be hail to 2 inches and wind gusts to 60 kts.
Convective outflows will assist the cold front to push to the
Oklahoma border around 03z, with a northeast wind shift following.
Thunderstorms will transition to a more stratiform rain overnight
through Monday morning, with reduced visibility in RA/BR. Short
term models are in strong agreement of post frontal IFR/LIFR
stratus impacting all airports after 09z Mon. Stratus will only
very slowly lift daylight Monday, likely persisting much of the
day, with IFR expected to persist through the morning. Areas of
light rain/drizzle will gradually diminish from north to south
during Monday, with NE winds of 10-20 kts prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  68  50  74 /  90  60  10  10
GCK  56  65  49  72 /  80  60  10  10
EHA  56  65  51  71 /  70  60  20  30
LBL  58  65  50  72 /  90  60  20  20
HYS  57  70  48  75 /  90  40  10   0
P28  61  70  54  75 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
455 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 /355 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
between 3 pm and 11 pm. Hail as large as 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible. The most favored
area for severe storms is along and west of a line from WaKeeney
to Dodge City to Coldwater.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters will be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
511 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Hail             1 SSE Deerfield         37.97N 101.13W
09/10/2023  E2.00 inch       Kearny             KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     Hail             Scott City              38.48N 100.91W
09/10/2023  E1.50 inch       Scott              KS   Law Enforcement

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

KSZ043-044-063-102330-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-
555 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Finney,
southeastern Scott and southern Lane Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Amy, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Finney, southeastern Scott and southern Lane Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 10081 3842 10070 3836 10025 3803 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 293DEG 34KT 3830 10066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TURNER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             8 NW Sublette           37.56N 100.94W
09/10/2023  E1.75 inch       Haskell            KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
639 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Hail             3 NE Hayne              37.14N 100.77W
09/10/2023  E1.00 inch       Seward             KS   Law Enforcement

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

KSZ086-087-110045-
Seward KS-Meade KS-
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Seward and
Meade Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Plains to 8 miles south of
Kismet. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Meade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10083 3739 10082 3736 10009 3700 10010
      3700 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 284DEG 36KT 3735 10066 3709 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SUGDEN