Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
703 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Infrared satellite imagery and radar depicted an MCS in progress
across north central Kansas, where wind gusts of 60-70 mph have
been measured. Outflow from this complex had combined with the
synoptic cold front across NW KS, where gradient winds post
frontal were continuing to gust to near 50 mph, even away from
convection. Cold front currently passing Scott City at 7 pm will
accelerate this evening, reaching GCK/DDC no later than 9 pm, and
clearing Medicine Lodge by midnight. Updated wind/wind gust grids
to increase them considerably this evening. Most thunderstorms so
far this evening have lived short lives given very low bulk shear,
but linear forcing on the surging cold front after sunset, and
some modest shear increases/moisture convergence should lead to a
modest increase in storm organization with time this evening. Any
severe weather is expected to be limited to outflow gusts to near
60 mph and marginally severe to subsevere hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

A cold front will pass across Kansas tonight as a weak disturbance
traverses the northern plains. A few air mass thunderstorms can
be expected ahead of the front through sunset just about anywhere
across southwestern Kansas. Additional storms forming over
northwestern Kansas this afternoon along the front will propagate
southeastward overnight with the front. The storms could be
marginally severe with damaging wind. Thunderstorm chances linger
Saturday into Saturday night behind the front in a very moist air
mass. There is a lot of uncertainty with the location of any bands
of heavier rain. Cloud cover and possible areas of precipitation
will keep temperatures cooler Saturday, with highs in the 70s and
80s from northwest to southeast. Temperatures will drop into the
mid 50s to lower 60s Saturday night. A drier air mass is
predicted for Sunday; but afternoon temperatures will be higher
in many places owing to the return of abundant sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

A warming trend will develop next week and through next weekend
as upper level ridging expands across the high plains, with highs
warming from the upper 80s early in the week to the mid and upper
90s and possibly 100 by Friday and Saturday.The ridging and drier
low level air will inhibit thunderstorms for the most part. There
is only a small chance for thunderstorms Monday night into early
Tuesday as a weak disturbance approaches from the north.
Otherwise, expect dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 448 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

At least isolated thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the
airports for the next several hours, but have low confidence of
any direct impacts at any specific terminal. As such, only
included VCTS/CB mention into this evening. A cold front will
sweep into SW KS this evening, and is expected to be through all
airports by 03z Sat, and through P28 by 06z Sat. An abrupt shift
to northeast winds will accompany fropa, with northeast winds
gusting to near 30 kts for several hours after frontal passage.
Consensus of short term models shows MVFR stratus developing in
the post frontal/upslope environment, favoring DDC/GCK/LBL
by the 09-12z Sat time frame. Stratus is forecast to lift back
to VFR by 18z Sat with continued elevated N/NE winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  81  62  86 /  30  30  50  10
GCK  65  76  60  85 /  40  40  50  10
EHA  64  78  60  85 /  30  40  50  30
LBL  65  80  60  86 /  20  30  50  20
HYS  67  79  59  85 /  60  50  40  10
P28  73  90  66  88 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-
046-065-066-081-090.

&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
221 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
221 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 /121 AM MDT Fri Aug 25 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of central
and south central Kansas today. See the Weather Message for
further details.

There will be a chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms tonight north of a Johnson City to Garden City to
Larned line. Main hazards tonight will be hail up to the size of
quarters and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE La Crosse         38.54N 99.28W
08/25/2023  M71 MPH          Rush               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station LCRK1 La Crosse.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

KSZ030-260030-
Trego KS-
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Trego
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Collyer, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Voda around 655 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9981 3895 10015 3913 10015 3913 9983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 204DEG 6KT 3907 10013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
653 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

KSZ031-260030-
Ellis KS-
653 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ellis
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 653 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Catherine, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Emmeram around 710 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9904 3883 9919 3894 9933 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 240DEG 20KT 3892 9923

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

KSZ030-260030-
Trego KS-
659 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Trego
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Trego Center, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Trego Center and Cedar Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9960 3870 9992 3870 9995 3875 10003
      3890 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 227DEG 18KT 3876 9994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

KSZ031-046-260030-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
702 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rush
and southeastern Ellis Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loretta, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Loretta around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Pfeifer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9904 3870 9904 3855 9911 3861 9931
      3872 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 201DEG 16KT 3860 9922

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

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