Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

A cold front will pass across the area this evening. In the wake
of the front, high pressure will build across the high plains.
An upper level ridge will begin to expand eastward by mid-week
and become entrenched by the weekend. This ridge could be very
persistent and even if the center of the ridge moves east of our
area later in August, it will probably still be hot.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Thunderstorms will develop ahead of a pre-frontal trough this
afternoon; and given the deep layer shear, these could be severe
with damaging wind, along with small to marginally severe hail.
The main limiting factor for severe storms is the weak low level
winds that are veering ahead of the front. The best chance of
storms is from southern Meade county into Comanche, Barber and
Pratt counties. Once the front arrives this evening, the storms
should evolve into a line and move out of the state. Winds in the
wake of the front this evening will be gusting to over 30 mph for
a couple of hours. Expect lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
tonight. Monday will feature pleasant weather with much drier air
and highs between 80 and 85, along with breezy north winds at 15
to 25 mph. Clear skies, light winds and drier air will allow
temperatures to bottom out in the lower 50s in Scott City by
Tuesday morning, with upper 50s over south central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

A warming trend will commence by Tuesday with afternoon highs
rising into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Near 100 degree
temperatures are possible by Friday and Saturday. Residual low
level moisture will make it feel hotter. The lower levels will
eventually dry out by Sunday or Monday; but afternoon readings
near and possibly above 100 can be expected through 23 August and
possibly through the remainder of August. A stray thunderstorm
can't be ruled out Friday and Saturday evenings in far western
Kansas given the residual moisture. Rain chances after Saturday
are close to zero as the moisture mixes out and afternoon humidity
values drop into the 15 to 25 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 517 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible along
and ahead of a cold front pushing southeast through eastern portions
of southwest Kansas and south central Kansas early this evening,
potentially affecting the vicinity of KDDC. Otherwise, widespread
VFR conditions are expected through early Monday. Northerly winds
around 10 to 20kt with occasional gusts to 25kt are likely to
persist through early Monday in wake of the aforementioned cold
front pushing farther southeast into northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  82  55  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  59  81  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  59  80  56  88 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  60  82  56  86 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  57  81  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
P28  62  84  57  84 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
113 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-141200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
113 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 /1213 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and tonight.
This will result in lower chances of showers and thunderstorms for
much of the area. A marginally strong to low end severe storm is possible,
although chances are small. The main threat would be some wind and
brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

KSZ089-090-140130-
Barber KS-Comanche KS-
739 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Barber and
southeastern Comanche Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Sun City, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Barber and
southeastern Comanche Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9926 3736 9903 3739 9847 3738 9835
      3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 292DEG 18KT 3725 9899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HOVORKA