Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Dodge City, KS

196 
WWUS53 KDDC 090517
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

KSC051-090545-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-230809T0545Z/
Ellis KS-
1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY...

At 1217 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Antonino,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Yocemento, Munjor, Antonino and Toulon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 9925 3875 9925 3875 9952 3896 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 278DEG 21KT 3882 9940 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Roughly zonal 500-mb flow remains in place over the central plains
between a ~598dm subtropical ridge over the southern plains and
northern Mexico and weak longwave troughing over southern Canada.
Embedded within the flow is a strong shortwave trough currently
crossing the ID/WY border as per latest water vapor satellite
imagery, and this feature will continue to dig east-southeast
through the short term period. At the surface, southeasterly winds
will modestly increase across southwest KS around a deepening lee
cyclone in eastern CO. These warm trajectories will fail to foster
a warmer afternoon as any warm advection is offset by evaporation
of overnight precipitation, resulting in another afternoon in the
mid-80s for most areas.

Later tonight, the approaching upper level trough will aid in the
development of thunderstorms over northeast CO/far southeast WY
and adjacent areas. Latest CAMs/HREF are in good agreement
suggesting this activity will grow upscale rather quickly into a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) that will track east-southeast
from northeast CO/southwest NE into northwest and central KS. The
southern periphery of this linear complex will sweep through the
northern zones during the overnight period, encountering a
CAPE/shear parameter space supportive of severe hazards, primarily
damaging wind gusts given the expected storm mode. Highest
probability of severe exists along and north of KS-96, however
there is some indication the thunderstorm complex could reach as
far southwest as a Scott City-Dodge City-Medicine Lodge line.
Convective activity will exit stage right before sunrise Wednesday
morning, with lows dropping into the 60s.

In addition to the overnight convection, the upper level trough
will push a cold front southward through the central plains,
reinforcing the cool airmass over southwest KS and promoting
another day of below normal temperatures with afternoon highs
again the 80s. That said, cold advection in the wake of the
boundary along with DNVA behind the departing trough will
eliminate any precipitation chances through the end of the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Key Messages: Dry conditions will prevail through the end of the
work week while a slow warming trend commences. Thunderstorm
chances return over the weekend, but widespread severe is not
anticipated.

Medium range ensembles agree dry weather will prevail across
southwest KS through the end of the work week along with a slow
warming trend, as ensemble means show the stronger belt of 500-mb
flow inching just north of the central plains allowing afternoon
highs to increase from the upper 80s/near 90 on Thursday into the
mid-90s Saturday. By Saturday evening, around 20-30 kts of mid-
level flow will support at least weak lee troughing in eastern CO,
promoting moisture return into our area. Additionally, a weak
upper level trough near or just offshore of the southern CA coast
will send weak shortwave disturbances northeastward which will
help initiate thunderstorm complexes in eastern CO that will move
east into western KS Saturday and Sunday evening. Given the fairly
weak 500-mb flow, deep layer shear will be similarly weak,
therefore limiting severe potential, but a few instances of severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

The increase in precipitation chances will be accompanied by
temperatures cooling back down to below average for late summer as
ensemble means hint at a cold frontal passage Sunday night or
early Monday, with afternoon highs on Monday from the GEFS and
EPS near 90 and the mid-80s, respectively. That said, ensembles
suggest this cooler weather will be short lived as the subtropical
ridge builds back north into the southern and central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Thunderstorms have developed in northeast Colorado and will
continue to move east during the night eventually affecting the
DDC and GCK terminals with VCTS between 06-08Z. HYS will be in
line for the best chance of storms between 05-09Z and some of
these storms could be strong to severe with wind gusts over 50 kts
and large hail potential. Once the storms pass there will be
residual low clouds which could drop the flight category to MVFR
for DDC, GCK, and HYS through 15Z. After 15Z we should have VFR
flight categories and winds will stay breezy out of the north
between 12-18 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  84  60  90 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  62  83  59  90 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  61  85  58  93 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  64  85  60  92 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  63  83  60  91 /  80  30   0   0
P28  69  86  63  89 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
517 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023 /417 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is likely late
tonight as a strong storm system approaches western Kansas. The
main severe weather risk will be damaging straight line winds to
70 mph and large hail quarter to ping pong size. The region at
greatest risk for these hazards is north and east of a Dighton to
Jetmore to Stafford line during the late night hours after 10 PM
CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

After a break from organized severe weather risk, the pattern will
become active again by the weekend. Multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be likely across the
western Kansas region from Friday Night into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed late tonight across portions of west
central into central Kansas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

KSZ030-031-090500-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
1120 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Trego
and northwestern Ellis Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Riga, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Riga around 1135 PM CDT.
  Ellis around 1140 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Yocemento.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9973 3892 9983 3911 9946 3886 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 244DEG 20KT 3888 9970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TATRO