Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
819 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Thunderstorm evolution remains challenging for the remainder of
the short term through tonight. As of 8 pm, infrared satellite and
radar imagery showed a loosely organized convective complex
entering north central Kansas. These storms will pose a risk for
marginally severe wind/hail along the I-70 corridor over the next
few hours. A strong supercell west of Elkhart in northern Cimarron
county, Oklahoma will remain out of Kansas. In between, convective
inhibition has kept a lid on development thus far. 00z HRRR
suggests storms will become more numerous, especially south of
US 50, towards and especially after midnight as the low level jet
incites elevated development. Will maintain high pops in the
current forecast through tonight, based on continuity, a moist,
unstable sheared environment, and the expected cold front passage
overnight. The later in the night the storms occur, the risk of
severity diminishes and transitions to locally heavy rain. Models
remain in agreement with the current forecast that the cold front
will clear all of SW KS by sunrise Sunday, with northwest winds
for all zones. Northwest winds will gust 20-30 mph with noticeably
cooler air Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

.Key Messages

- High confidence in severe weather across southwest Kansas
  tonight
- Main threat will be large hail (> 2 inches in diameter) for
  areas along the Colorado border and strong downburst winds (70+
  mph) for much of southwest Kansas
- Another overnight round of storms is increasing in forecast
  confidence for Sunday night

Noon observations show a departing line of thunderstorms in
northern Oklahoma with residual cloud cover in Barber and Pratt
counties. Elsewhere mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are
allowing the insolation to help to destabilize the atmosphere
particularly in eastern Colorado. CAPE values over 1500 J/kg are
present with forecast of up to 3000 J/kg by storm initiation this
afternoon in the front range. Low level winds out of the east to
southeast will aid in upslope flow. Upper level winds show a
shortwave along the left exit region of a jet in the central
portions of Colorado where the expected initiation of the
thunderstorms will be which will lead to our overnight event.

Tonight the CAM models are in good agreement of a mixture of
supercells and linear storms coming into southwest Kansas around 7
PM and sweeping across the region through 1-2 AM Sunday morning.
Hodographs are showing veering aloft with a linear hodograph in
the upper levels which would indicate a good environment to
produce supercells and large hail especially along the Colorado
border. We've stuck with the earlier messaging about the risk and
timing with the storms as the SPC enhanced risk didn't change from
the morning to the 1630Z update. One wild card to the storm
timing and risk is the outflow boundary along the I-70 corridor
which could produce some storms earlier than the 7PM timeframe as
well as residual outflow boundaries from the morning storms in our
southeast zone. Confidence in storm development and timing is low
in these scenarios.

Sunday should be noticeably cooler as the storms will exit along
a cold front and winds through the boundary layer will be north to
northwest. 850 mb temperatures will range from 18-20 (C) and high
should reach into the mid 80s.

Sunday night another large scale shortwave should move across the
Colorado Rockies and with easterly winds on the southwest side of
a high pressure center this will lead to upslope flow.
Thunderstorms should break out around the Denver metro in the late
afternoon and then move across western Kansas mainly during the
overnight hours (after midnight for most locations). Severe threat
at this point is low as most of the storms should be coming during
the night that most of the energy from the heat of the day should
have subsided and the 850 mb winds should be light which will
negate lower level shear. Lows should fall into the low to mid
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

.Key Messages

-Good chances of storms (>40%) with heavy rain potential Monday
 night and Tuesday morning
-Seasonal temperatures during the week (climatological high is
 lower 90s)

Ensemble trends in the upper levels show continued stronger
westerly winds through the central portions of the country which
will keep the strong 597 dm high shifted to the south in Texas and
New Mexico. This should keep the core of the hottest air out of
the areas as temperatures will modestly rise during the week to
the mid 90s for highs by Thursday. With this weather pattern this
will also keep rain chances in the forecast for much of the week
with the main mode of storms being overnight MCS events.

Ensembles are hinting at a QPF hit for Monday night into Tuesday
morning where 0.5 to 1 inch of rain is possible with the overnight
MCS event moving across southwest Kansas. The setup will be
boundary layer winds out of the southeast producing upslope flow
in the Colorado rockies combining with a shortwave in the
westerlies which will trigger convection in the front range in the
late afternoon. Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to move
across southwest Kansas but the location of where the storms is
going to go over is still low confidence as some long term models
have the northern part of the CWA getting hit and some in the
southwest zones. Severe weather potential should be limited to
areas along the Colorado border where residual daytime heating
could lead to higher instability. Long term models are also
hinting at a similar setup Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
for areas more along the I-70 corridor and north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Aviation operations are expected to be impacted by thunderstorms
during the first half of this TAF period. Using the 12z ARW as a
guide, maintained convective TEMPO groups for all airports, during
the 01-06z Sun time range. Some storms will be severe, with
outflow winds near or exceeding 50 kts, and included this
potential in the TAFs. Flight category reductions will be brief,
with VFR quickly returning behind the expected MCS. Models do not
suggest any stratus potential in the post-frontal/MCS environment,
so did not include, but will monitor. Broken midlevel clouds
after the storms will clear to SKC daylight Sunday with strong
subsidence. Winds will trend north behind the thunderstorms. After
18z Sun, NW winds will increase at all airports, gusting
28-32 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  85  61  83 /  80   0  40  10
GCK  60  81  60  82 /  80   0  60  10
EHA  61  85  61  87 /  60   0  40  10
LBL  63  84  63  85 /  80   0  50  10
HYS  63  84  60  83 /  50  10  10  10
P28  67  88  65  85 /  80  10  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
118 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
118 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023 /1218 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely mainly tonight after 7 PM across
much of southwest Kansas. Main threats are large hail which could
be 2 inches or larger in diameter especially near the Colorado
border and wind gusts of 70 mph or greater across much of the
region. Localized heavy rain will also be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe thunderstorms are possible each evening and night Monday
through Wednesday. These storms could be severe with large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters will be needed later today and tonight.

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