Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Dodge City, KS

182 
WWUS53 KDDC 170125
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
825 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSC047-057-083-097-170230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-230717T0230Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Hodgeman KS-Edwards KS-
825 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN
AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

At 825 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Bellefont,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Offerle around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Windhorst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9986 3804 9956 3775 9925 3759 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 328DEG 18KT 3788 9965 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SUGDEN

483 
WWUS53 KDDC 170133 CCA
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
833 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSC047-057-083-097-170245-
/O.COR.KDDC.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-230717T0230Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Hodgeman KS-Edwards KS-
833 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN
AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

At 833 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bellefont,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Windhorst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9986 3804 9956 3775 9925 3759 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 346DEG 14KT 3788 9965 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

SUGDEN

757 
WWUS53 KDDC 170141
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
841 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSC083-170150-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-230717T0230Z/
Hodgeman KS-
841 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3789 9985 3791 9943 3775 9925 3759 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 007DEG 13KT 3782 9968 

$$

KSC047-057-097-170230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-230717T0230Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
841 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES...

At 840 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Windhorst,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Windhorst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9985 3791 9943 3775 9925 3759 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 007DEG 13KT 3782 9968 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

SUGDEN

968 
WWUS53 KDDC 170203
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
903 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSC047-057-097-170213-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-230717T0230Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
903 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3789 9985 3791 9943 3775 9925 3759 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 346DEG 14KT 3773 9965 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Radar at 6 pm showed an intense supercell complex over Barton
county, moving due south toward the most favorable environment
available for its sustenance. A high end threat for damaging wind
driven hail is expected to continue through Stafford county over
the next hour. Low level shear is not favorable for significant
tornado production, but one cannot be ruled out given a dominant
sustained supercell near any boundaries, increasing storm relative
helicity locally. The westernmost storm near Otis in Rush county
will continue to intensify and also move south, with its attendant
wind/hail threat moving toward Larned and Macksville. Downstream
environment appears to support severe potential at least to near
Pratt this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday evening)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

SFC analysis shows a weak outflow boundary located across northern Kansas
today. This OFB will slowly move southward through the rest of the
afternoon. This feature should be the most likely impetus for storms
later today. As a result, have the highest pops located across the
N to E zones this afternoon and tonight. Here, storms are expected
to eventually develop this afternoon into tonight. It should be noted
there is considerable variation in the CAMs as far as storm potential
is concerned. Several models don't have any storms until well after
00Z tonight or none at all. Looking at 700 hPa temperatures from various
models, several of them are indicating temperatures around 10C tonight.
Our morning RAOB was 11C, so it seems like this temperature is on track.
This 11C is cooler than the 15 to 16C like we have seen in recent days.
Therefore, I do think the cap is breakable this afternoon. There should
be enough convergence along the OFB to get at least some isolated to
perhaps widely scattered storms across central Kansas. As far as threats
are consider, there is considerable veering of upper level winds. These
winds are forecast to be rather strong and out of the NW. This should
support the physical notion of good storm top ventilation and resultant
lower beneficial competition for hail embryos. As a result, I do suspect
very large hail of 2-3" is possible this afternoon roughly from the
I-70 corridor to Pratt. LHP values from the ARW support this as well.
The boundary layer is expected to be somewhat mixed as well, so damaging
outflows are a secondary threat. The low level hodograph looks unfavorable
for tornadoes at this time. There might be slight backing of winds
later tonight, but overall the threat still looks unfavorable due to
the mentioned unfavorable hodo in the low levels of the atmosphere.
Otherwise, storm chances decrease and seem more unlikely along and
west of Highway 283. For tonight, mild lows are expected with values
in the upper 60s to around 70. For monday, an upper level ridge starts
to build in from the SW. 500 hPa heights are expected to increase during
the day. This should put the kibosh on any storm chances Monday. Otherwise,
hot highs are expected with values in the upper 90s to around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

The upper level ridge will continue to build east Tuesday and should
plant itself over the southern plains during the day. 500 hPa heights
continue to increase through the day to 595 to 597 dm. This supports
the hot and dry forecast we are still expecting. Hot highs in the low
100s looks on track at this time. Storm chances look unlikely as the
ridge prevails across the greater region. Dewpoints look nowhere as
high as they were for the previous hot temperature/heat advisory event.
The possible exception to this is near Medicine Lodge, where the heat
index might flirt with heat advisory criteria. Something to watch over
the next day or two. Beyond Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected
to break down slightly/move south. This may help us to back off on
the heat Wednesday through the end of the business week. Upper level
flow also may become northwesterly. This may help to reintroduce storm
chances with an MCS pattern taking place across Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

VFR is forecast to continue through this TAF cycle. Intense
thunderstorms east of HYS at 2130z are expected to remain east of
the airport in the very short term, but will watch for convective
impacts/outflows. Otherwise, this set of TAFs was kept dry with
only scattered cirrus from convective debris. Outside of the
influence of convective outflows, winds will remain light through
this TAF cycle, generally less than 10 kts. The exception, after
15z Mon, SW winds will increase modestly at GCK/LBL, with gusts
near 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  99  74 103 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  66 100  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  65  99  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  99  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  97  72  99 /  30  10  10   0
P28  70  98  74 104 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
330 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 /230 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe Thunderstorms are possible after 1 pm Today, east of a line
extending from Scott City to Ashland. Large hail 2 inches in
diameter and damaging wind are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Excessive heat will be elevated Tuesday afternoon. Avoid prolonged
excessive heat exposure that results in heat exhaustion.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected Today or Tonight.

Russell

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
734 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Radium              38.22N 98.89W
07/16/2023                   Stafford           KS   Law Enforcement

            Law Enforcement reported multiple power
            poles blown down.

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Larned                  38.18N 99.10W
07/16/2023                   Pawnee             KS   Public

            3-inch tree limbs broken, and Power poles
            broken in Larned.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ065-066-081-170130-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-
738 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pawnee,
central Stafford and north central Pratt Counties through 830 PM
CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Radium, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Dillwyn and St. John.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3807 9849 3778 9886 3798 9902 3800 9902
      3800 9904 3813 9915 3825 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 311DEG 27KT 3812 9895

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
745 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Hail             2 W Pratt               37.65N 98.77W
07/16/2023  M1.75 inch       Pratt              KS   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
809 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             Seward                  38.18N 98.80W
07/16/2023  M1.75 inch       Stafford           KS   Public

            Report was received from social media.

&&

RCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
811 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

KSZ066-079>081-170145-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
811 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Kiowa,
southwestern Stafford, southeastern Edwards and northwestern Pratt
Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 811 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Macksville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hopewell around 825 PM CDT.
  Byers around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Pratt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 9903 3796 9913 3800 9895 3800 9892
      3801 9891 3773 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 335DEG 29KT 3791 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
823 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Hail             2 W Pratt               37.65N 98.77W
07/16/2023  M1.75 inch       Pratt              KS   Broadcast Media

            Time of event was corrected based on radar.

&&

RCB