Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Mesoscale Discussion Update...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Strong to severe storms are ongoing around the Hays area this
early afternoon as convection propagated southeast out of
northwest and north central Kansas. A weak surface trough
extending from just west of Hays to east of Dodge City has
concentrated mid 70 to near 80 dewpoints with associated MLCAPE of
4000+ J/kg along with minimal inhibition existing. This along with
30+ kt effective layer shear and 40+ kt anvil level SR flow is
creating elongated hodographs although with minimal low-level
shear/SRH. This will favor supercells and line segments with
mostly a wind risk up to 75 mph but still hail up to tennis ball
in size possible with any discrete supercells. Additionally, a
combination of outflow and a weak front is seen surging south
near I-70 with additional convection possible just north of the
front as it moves south. This will support areas roughly along
and east of WaKeeney to Rush Center to Pratt line seeing
additional convection through mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday evening)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

A weak shortwave trough approaching the central high plains and a
weak cold front, along with abundant low level moisture, will
lead to the propagation of a line of storms across central and
parts of southwestern Kansas this afternoon. The storms were
already developing late this morning. The main question is how far
west the storms will develop due to weaker forcing to the south
and west and warmer mid levels. High winds and hail will be the
main concerns as the low level shear is very weak so that
significant tornadoes are not expected.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Cooler and drier air will move into western Kansas Saturday. Any
storm clusters will probably be south and west of Kansas. A
warming trend will commence Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper
90s by Monday and Tuesday. It will continue to be difficult to
get 100 degree readings in southwest Kansas due to all the rain
over the past several weeks. If it does happen, Tuesday would
probably be the day.

The next good chances for thunderstorms are on Wednesday and
Thursday nights as a weak disturbance moves along the southern
edge of the westerlies. High temperatures should cool down into
the upper 80s or lower 90s by Thursday and Friday due to the
passage of an effective frontal boundary and convective remnants
and thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

A line of storms will move across KHYS, KDDC and possibly KGCK
between 18 and 22z. High winds and hail are likely with this line.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  64  87  64 /  60  40  10  10
GCK  91  62  87  63 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  91  64  86  62 /  20  40  40  40
LBL  91  65  87  64 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  89  62  90  64 /  70  30  10  10
P28  91  68  89  66 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
333 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 /233 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central
Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas later this afternoon into
this evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
quarter to golf ball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible across extreme southwest Kansas
Saturday. However, severe potential is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed generally after 3 PM...mainly
east of a Garden City to Meade line.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ031-046-141845-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
119 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rush
and southeastern Ellis Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pfeifer, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Rush
and southeastern Ellis Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9904 3870 9903 3860 9903
      3869 9929 3886 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 282DEG 17KT 3876 9917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
126 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WNW Ogallah           39.00N 99.80W
07/14/2023  M60 MPH          Trego              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP852 3.7 W Ogallah (UPR).
            This corrects the location of the 60 mph
            wind gust that was previously issued for
            Trego County at 1255pm.

&&

RB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Antonino           38.80N 99.42W
07/14/2023  E65 MPH          Ellis              KS   Public

            Wind estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Visibility
            was reduced to 200 yards. Report received
            through social media.

&&

RB

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