Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Dodge City, KS

080 
WWUS53 KDDC 080052
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
752 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

KSC119-080101-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-230708T0115Z/
Meade KS-
752 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MEADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3712 10056 3735 10010 3700 10009 3700 10053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 236DEG 17KT 3714 10031 

$$

RUSSELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Noon observations show a line of thunderstorms roughly from
Kinsley to Medicine Lodge which will continue to move east out of
the CWA over the next couple of hours. Visible satellite shows
mainly cloudy skies with pockets of sun breaking out especially
for areas along the Oklahoma border. CAPE values are starting to
increase in the far southwest with values ~1500 J/kg in Elkhart
and higher totals into the Texas panhandle. Upper level winds are
still zonal with a developing shortwave ahead of a jet max in
central Colorado.

Tonight another round of strong to severe storms is forecast to
develop with the main focus more to the south in the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles where SPC has an enhanced risk with a hatched
wind and hail threat. Storms will have the robust convective
energy in these areas and the CAMs are in pretty good agreement of
a long line of storms extending roughly from highway 50 in Kansas
to near Lubbock. The storms should trend to the south and east
during the evening taking the strongest storms out of our CWA by
02-03Z. More storms should develop tonight mainly along highway 50
and south as the shortwave ejects out of Colorado into Kansas.
Main threats with the initial storms will be hail and wind and the
threats with the overnight storms will be more flooding and
perhaps some gusty winds.

Saturday should be another day where we will have lingering
convection in the morning and good cloud cover during the day to
temper the summer sun. Surface and boundary layer winds will be
out of the east to northeast which will also help with keeping
temperatures slightly cooler. Model guidance is forecasting highs
in the mid to upper 70s and I went with the higher numbers given
we may have some breaks of sun during the day to help warm us up
slightly.

Saturday night another MCS is forecast to develop around the
Denver metro by late afternoon and progress south and east during
the night. The low level jet should increase during the night with
easterly upslope flow allowing storms to increase in coverage. QPF
bullseye is being forecast to be roughly from Syracuse to
Coldwater on west which are areas that have seen quite a bit of
rain the last two days. Flooding and hydro concerns will need to
be monitored if the swath of rain happens to reach these areas.
Hail and wind will also be a threat with these storms especially
early on as they exit Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Key messaging in the long term is the trend of warmer temperatures
and the potential for more overnight MCS.

Upper level winds from Sunday through Friday show the ridge over
the southwest portion of the nation staying more stationary
instead of moving eastward. That said the heat dome associated
with the upper level ridge should start to move eastward as lower
level winds in the boundary layer turn more southwest. High
temperatures next week look to be around the lower 90s. Rain
chances look to be the best Monday night into Tuesday morning as
an upper level shortwave comes in from the Denver metro and
reaches western Kansas during the overnight. This is the best
signal for rain showing up in the deterministic and ensembles so
far however with the way the upper level winds are trending
towards the later part of the week...it appears we could be seeing
more overnight MCS potential returning for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and extreme
southeast Colorado this evening are expected to move slowly east
into southwest Kansas overnight, potentially affecting the vicinity
of all TAF sites with brief periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys. Light and
variable winds are expected through early Saturday morning as a
surface low in northeast New Mexico shifts east through the Texas
Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  80  60  79 /  60  20  70  10
GCK  62  78  59  77 /  50  20  70  10
EHA  62  76  60  77 /  60  20  70  10
LBL  64  78  61  76 /  70  20  80  10
HYS  62  80  59  82 /  20  20  30  10
P28  67  80  62  80 /  70  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KSZ075>081-085>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 /1203 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated afternoon and evening storms will be possible across the
forecast area. Hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Bouts of thunderstorms will be possible during this period. Strong
to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.