Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
121 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Early this morning, there was scattered storms across the Kansas prairie.
Some of these storms have been severe, but overall, the severe weather
impacts previously forecast have not been as impactful as expected.
Anyway, these storms will move E/SE as the morning continues and should
be gone towards 12Z. On a related note, the atmosphere will be been
pretty worked over through much of the day. It remains to be seen if
the atmosphere will be recharged or not by this afternoon into the
evening. As such, am a little dubious on seeing much storm activity
this afternoon and evening. The main exception to this might end up
near the Oklahoma border, where isolated storms may develop this afternoon
and evening. Overall impacts will be marginal to perhaps low end severe,
but the main impact will be heavy rainfall for those under a storm.
Otherwise, temperatures will be quite pleasant today with values in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Get out and enjoy it because this is obviously
cooler than normal for the beginning of July. For Saturday, a much
drier forecast is expected. Much of the day will remain storm free.
If there were to be any storms, it would be across the western zones
with upslope flow induced storms coming out of Colorado. Very pleasant
highs are expected again on Saturday with values in the mid 70s to
around 80F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Pretty much a carbon copy of Saturday weather is expected Sunday. Mainly
dry with pleasant temperatures continuing. Heading into the next business
week, a gradual warm up is expected. Highs on Monday will inch closer
to normal with values in the upper 80s. Storm chances looks isolated
at best with much of the FA remaining dry. By Tuesday, the ridge across
the Desert Southwest moves every so slightly east. This should help
temperatures rebound back in the 90s. More of the same is expected
for the rest of the extended period with seasonally warm to hot highs
and small percentage points for any storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023

The main change of the TAFs was to shift west and slow the movement
of the thunderstorm complex through the overnight. Based off radar
and some other parameters, it looks likely that the storms will mainly
impact the western terminals through the morning. This is particularly
true at KGCK and KLBL. KDDC might be on the eastern edge of the storm
complex. KHYS now stands at seeing the least impacts from the storms.
Otherwise, some MVFR cigs associated with residual moisture expected
in the morning. Winds SE-S 5-15 kt except gusty/variable in
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  81  63  79 /  80  20  50  10
GCK  63  79  62  77 /  80  20  40  10
EHA  64  89  62  75 /  60  20  60  10
LBL  64  89  63  77 /  80  20  70  10
HYS  62  81  59  79 /  50  40  20  10
P28  65  84  66  79 /  50  50  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ075>081-085>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 /1203 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated afternoon and evening storms will be possible across the
forecast area. Hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are
the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Bouts of thunderstorms will be possible during this period. Strong
to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

KSZ077-078-087-088-070730-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
145 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Ford,
Meade, southeastern Gray and northwestern Clark Counties through 230
AM CDT...

At 145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Missler, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Meade around 200 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 10063 3730 10064 3758 10049 3745 9993
      3700 10020 3700 10027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 295DEG 21KT 3733 10045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TURNER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Hail             Kismet                  37.21N 100.70W
07/07/2023  M2.00 inch       Seward             KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
243 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Johnson City       37.58N 101.73W
07/07/2023  M59 MPH          Stanton            KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KJHN Johnson City.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>