Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Noon observations show an area of convection from Ashland to
Medicine Lodge which developed as the result of an outflow
boundary which moved through western Kansas during the mid morning
hours. With this batch of storms it will certainly have an effect
on the rest of the afternoon and evening potential which will be
discussed later. In the upper levels the 500 mb winds are
generally zonal with the surface observations showing generally
easterly winds and the outflow boundary from the storms last night
draped across central Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle along
the I-40 corridor.

Tonight the short term models and CAMs are in fairly good
agreement of some convection developing along the outflow boundary
in the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma roughly between 4-7 pm
however given the storms which as of noon are in Med Lodge this
could push the time frame back a little. In any case these storms
should stay farther south of the state line given the higher
confidence of the present storms stabilizing the air and keeping
the warm front further south. Another round of storms should
develop in the front range of the Rockies and move eastward
towards southwest Kansas generally after sunset. Initial storms
could be more supercell in nature as they approach the KS-CO-OK
borders with a large hail threat and then as the front in Oklahoma
lifts north due to a low level jet we should see increasing storm
coverage across all of southwest Kansas during the overnight which
would transition our main threats to heavy rain and downburst
winds. QPF outputs look pretty impressive in the heavier storms as
1 inch or more potential is being shown. Storms should gradually
exit the region towards sunrise.

Thursday we will probably have more clouds than sun once again
and cooler than seasonable highs as model guidance is showing
upper 70s. The majority of the day should be dry as it looks like
any outflow from tonight's storms should stay well to the south
(unless of course we have another outflow surprise which could
spark off some pop up storms in the late afternoon).

Thursday night the MCS train gets going again as another shortwave
will move east in the zonal flow interacting with plenty of
moisture and an increasing low level jet after midnight. CAMs are
highlighting our northern counties along the I-70 corridor to have
the highest chance of rain. Along with the rain once again the
main severe weather risk will be downburst winds as it looks like
the storm mode should turn linear fairly quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Long term models continue to show a fairly consistent pattern of
overnight MCS through at least Sunday morning. Main threats
continue to be localized heavy rainfall and downburst winds. We
will continue to have a frontal boundary and various outflow
boundaries from previous night's storms along with ample moisture
of 60-65 dewpoints to support the good chances of storms. QPF
outputs of 0.5-1 inch are common with each MCS event so the
potential of overnight flash flooding will increase as the ground
continues to saturate.

Early next week we should see the ridge in the desert southwest
move into the central plains which will introduce some much warmer
air back into the region with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
returning. Early indications are that we will also turn drier as
the upper level winds and better forcing will move northward as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Primarily VFR conditions are likely in vicinity of all TAF sites
through mid-evening. Thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado
are then expected to spread eastward, possibly moving into extreme
southwest Kansas after 04-06Z. High relative humidity within a light
east-southeast upslope flow is expected to contribute to low level
stratus development by early Thursday morning, bringing MVFR cigs
initially, then possibly IFR cigs to much of southwest Kansas toward
daybreak. Surface high pressure sliding east-southeast across the
Upper Midwest will result in light east-southeast winds through
early Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  79  64  86 /  90  20  50  20
GCK  59  79  64  84 /  90  10  40  10
EHA  60  78  66  91 /  70  10  20  10
LBL  61  77  66  91 /  70  10  30  10
HYS  59  78  62  80 /  40  10  80  50
P28  64  79  65  88 /  80  30  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
425 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-060930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
425 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 /325 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected late this evening and tonight. A few of
these storms could be severe with large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are expected each evening and night through Saturday.
A few of these storms could be severe with large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
902 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

KSZ074-060230-
Stanton KS-
902 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Stanton County through 930 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manter, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Stanton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10192 3754 10192 3757 10167 3739 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 272DEG 16KT 3745 10183

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RUSSELL