Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
637 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Thunderstorms increasing in coverage as they move northeast across
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Expect this trend to
continue as these storms move northeast into an area of higher low
level moisture. Latest HRRR now appears a little more reasonable
keeping  with storms increasing in coverage as they move northeast
into southern before taking a more easterly track along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border after 01z as a weak upper level wave moves
across southwest Kansas.  Until now the warm +16C 700mb
temperatures have limited convection across extreme southwest
Kansas but this may change over the next several hours as the
convection encounters an area of higher low level moisture. The
area of interest between 00z and 03z for the best opportunity for
large hail and strong damaging winds will be south of Dodge City
and West of Ashland  given the low level moist axis, forecast deep
layer shear and mid level lapse rage. Further north and east a
more stable environment will exist. Not saying strong winds and
hail will not occur in these areas but the probability is much
lower than what was previously expected earlier this evening.
Current severe thunderstorm watch still looks on track but am now
favoring locations close to the Oklahoma border as having the
highest probability for very large hail and wind gusts of 75 or
greater. Also along the Oklahoma border will also be monitoring a
window of opportunity for a tornado or two given the increasing
low level wind shear that will be between around sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

A significant boost in dew points was observed in the last 24
hours across the far western counties. The easterly upslope flow
over the greater area of the DDC warning area was cutoff on the
western periphery by a warm front in extreme eastern Co and
extending southeast to just north of Elkhart, KS. That area of
moisture pooling and convergence will serve as the better
initiation zone for supercells by mid to late afternoon, with the
high cape and shear axis eastward across the southern half of the
DDC forecast area providing the best combination for sustained
supercells producing hail, wind and isolated tornado risk through
early evening. The latest HRRR runs have had a consistent (hour to
hour) disposition to high end winds across the OK/KS state line,
coinciding where the moderate risk was drawn up by SPC. High
values of the Large Hail parameter already exist along and ahead
of the warm front, outlining the area of greatest 3 inch hail risk
in our western counties, although hail will be a risk across the
entire area through mid evening. We did use the FV3 for the
official grids for a better timing of stronger convectively
induced winds rather than the diluted NBM values. These will need
to be assessed through the evening as the convection unfolds. The
consensus of the convective allowing models takes he supercells
from just ahead of the warm front near near Syracuse and the
highway 25 corridor between 21 and 00 UTC, and the right turners
morph into a small MCS , southeast along the OK/KS line, south of
highway 400 exiting the Pratt/Medicine Lodge area after 2 or 3
UTC. The cold convective outflow will drop temps into the mid 60s
quickly. Secondary areas of higher winds in the CAMs could be
evaporatively cooled over turning in high lapse rates nera  the
MCS anvil edge late in the evening, (surprise brief high winds
after the storms).

Much of Wednesday’s severe weather potential will probably depend
of the outcome of this afternoons and evening’s severe weather
event including where stable outflow air sets up and creates or
destroys surface moisture and theta-e convergence. We’ll still
have the upper jet nearby while the ECMWF/GFS show high surface
dew points pooling behind a weal surface cold front or previous
day outflow to the northwest of the exiting surfaces low. Any
severe risk is anticipated to be far from the higher end threats
we are seeing this afternoon, and probably limited to gusty to
marginally damaging wind.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

The longer term looks a little more uncertain with day to day
convection as the the official outlooks are showing not enough
confidence to draw up and risk areas. That said, we do have a
positive tilt upper trough axis moving very slowly southeast
Thursday into Friday across the Great Basin and with a jet axis
lifting through the southern and central Rockies via
EC/GFS/Canadian global models. This shows potential for storms off
the higher terrain any given day, but a more pronounced
widespread convective signal as the upper jet gets closer to
Kansas by Friday or Saturday. Highest chances for widespread
thunderstorms right now are Friday night, which will also tend to
temper the hot temperatures in the 90s to around 100 expected
Wed/Thursday to not as hot 80s for the weekend. The 6 to 10 day
CPC outlook shows a broad area of the Rockies and central/southern
Plains in the “leaning above” precipitation category – or more
specifically a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Recent analysis from the last short term model runs as well as
the current trends has increased the uncertainty in the strongest
winds impacting the northernmost terminals. As a result, the
strongest winds have been decreased some in the TAFs as the HRRR
analysis has a more stable airmass near the surface. As
cyclogenesis is ongoing, the surface CAPE should still increase
into the evening, rendering the still strong possibility for severe
storms in the area, but the areal coverage may not be as great as
earlier thought. We may need to amend TAFs on an hour by hour
basis though the evening as the storms develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68 100  70  98 /  80   0  10   0
GCK  65  97  67  95 /  70   0  20   0
EHA  68 100  69  95 /  50  10  10   0
LBL  68 100  69  97 /  90   0   0   0
HYS  66  98  69  99 /  30   0  20   0
P28  71 103  74 103 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-280745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
241 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 /141 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as
convection forming in eastern CO moves into western KS. Strong
instability and sufficient bulk shear will support an intense line
of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, some
potentially significant, and large hail. Highest probability of
severe exists across areas east of US-83 and south of KS-156.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
853 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Bloom               37.49N 99.96W
06/27/2023  M61 MPH          Ford               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9907 Bloom.

&&

JRJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
858 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Minneola          37.43N 100.05W
06/27/2023  M82 MPH          Clark              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP313 2.1 W Minneola (UPR).

&&

JRJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
901 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Kingsdown         37.51N 99.81W
06/27/2023  M64 MPH          Ford               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP835 3.0 W Kingsdown (UPR).

&&

JRJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
906 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Bloom               37.49N 99.96W
06/27/2023  M75 MPH          Ford               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9907 Bloom.

&&

JRJ