Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

431 
WWUS53 KDDC 262154
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-262230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230226T2230Z/
Hamilton KS-Morton KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Stevens KS-Stanton KS-
354 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM
CST/330 PM MST/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHEASTERN MORTON...
SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY...GRANT...NORTHWESTERN STEVENS AND EASTERN
STANTON COUNTIES...

At 353 PM CST/253 PM MST/, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles
northeast of Richfield, moving northeast at 50 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR BIG BOW AND ULYSSES.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Bow and Ulysses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 10172 3789 10153 3772 10109 3768 10109
      3739 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 205DEG 43KT 3736 10159 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

HOVORKA

237 
WWUS53 KDDC 262202
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
402 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSC075-129-189-262212-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230226T2230Z/
Hamilton KS-Morton KS-Stevens KS-
402 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHEASTERN MORTON AND NORTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3786 10147 3772 10109 3768 10109 3748 10122
      3739 10160 3739 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 205DEG 43KT 3746 10153 

$$

KSC067-093-187-262230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230226T2230Z/
Kearny KS-Grant KS-Stanton KS-
402 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY...GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

At 402 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Big
Bow, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Big Bow and Hickok. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10147 3772 10109 3768 10109 3748 10122
      3739 10160 3739 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 205DEG 43KT 3746 10153 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

HOVORKA

036 
WWUS53 KDDC 262211
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
411 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSC187-262220-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230226T2230Z/
Stanton KS-
411 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3786 10147 3772 10109 3768 10109 3755 10118
      3749 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 205DEG 43KT 3755 10148 

$$

KSC067-093-262230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230226T2230Z/
Kearny KS-Grant KS-
411 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY AND NORTHERN GRANT COUNTIES...

At 410 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Big Bow, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses and Hickok. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10147 3772 10109 3768 10109 3755 10118
      3749 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 205DEG 43KT 3755 10148 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

HOVORKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Key Messages...

A very strong upper level disturbance is approaching the high
plains. Thunderstorms will develop in far western Kansas and sweep
across southwestern Kansas, with damaging wind and small hail.

Technical discussion...

Strong forcing ahead of a shortwave trough was moving into extreme
southwestern Kansas, along with diurnal heating and steepening
lapse rates. Low level moisture is currently lacking, but will be
increasing. Given high dewpoint depressions and very strong mid
level winds, high winds of 60-70 mph+ will accompany these storms
as the main hazards as cold pool generation will be rapid. Given
the limited instability, small hail is possible, with hail
possibly as large as quarters as the storms first develop. After
cold pool development, hail will likely be small. Meso-vortices
can't be completely ruled out with the initial convective line.

As the upper level cold pool arrives later this evening, residual
low level moisture behind the initial thunderstorm line may
result in renewed thunderstorm development, with marginally
severe hail possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday evening)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Short term forecast remains largely on track compared to this time
yesterday, as a powerful upper level shortwave impulse now located
over the Desert Southwest, as per latest water vapor satellite
imagery, will be the driver of anomalously warm temperatures this
afternoon as well as severe convective storms this evening.

Strong theta-e advection is underway across the central and
southern plains as rapid lee cyclogenesis occurs in eastern CO
ahead of the upper wave. Skies have cleared across much of
southwest KS as of 18Z, which will support temperatures soaring
into the low to mid 70s, and perhaps higher, while regions closer
to central KS will only reach the mid/upper 60s under lingering
cloud cover. By late afternoon/early evening, short range
guidance/CAMs suggest a dryline will sharpen somewhere between
US-83 and US-283, and become the focus for thunderstorm
development during the 21-22Z time frame as significant DCVA
overspreads the boundary. Uncertainty remains regarding moisture
quality/degree of destabilization ahead of the dryline, however
reasonably high confidence exists in MLCAPE building into the
500-1000 J/Kg range by mid-afternoon. On the other hand, the
kinematics with this system are quite impressive. A 40-50 kt
southerly low level jet under 60-75 kt southwesterlies at 500-mb
will contribute to 55-75 kts of bulk shear, resulting in swift
storm organization.

Next question to unravel will be storm mode, and therefore primary
severe hazard associated with the convective activity. Given the
long, sufficiently curved hodographs immediately ahead of the
initiating boundary, initial storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of severe hail (1"+ in diameter) and damaging wind gusts.
However, considering a 0-6km shear vector/dryline intersection
angle of around 45 degrees, along with substantial forcing for
ascent, rapid upscale growth into a fast-moving squall line
appears likely. Once this occurs, primary severe hazard will
transition to damaging wind gusts, some of which could be
significant (65+ mph) given the strong low level jet and steep
low level lapse rates supporting DCAPE in the 1000-1200 J/Kg
range. Most favorable area for significant severe will reside
across the far southeast zones (Comanche and Barber counties)
where slightly higher MLCAPE will exist, but severe wind gusts can
be expected east and south of a Liberal-Garden City-Hays line.
Severe squall line will move quickly across our area, exiting our
eastern zones into central KS before 11 PM CST.

Once the convection clears our area, the next forecast concern
becomes the gradient wind overnight behind the surging cold front
on the backside of the deepening surface trough. Nighttime should
save southwest KS from any high wind headlines as west-northwest
winds are only expected to be sustained in the 25-35 mph range
with gusts of 45-50 mph, but cannot be ruled out as pressure
perturbations will likely exist across our area within the squall
line's cold outflow. With time, winds will gradually diminish from
southwest to northeast through Monday morning and afternoon,
dropping into the 10-15 mph range by the end of the short term
period. Despite the strength of the winds, poor CAA will keep
temperatures above average Monday afternoon, with highs in the low
to upper 60s under clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Medium range guidance agrees broad west-southwesterly flow will
overspread the central and southern plains at the beginning of the
long term period, with a couple weak perturbations west of the
Rockies emanating through the flow. These features will induce
lee cyclogenesis across eastern WY/CO, resulting in another day of
strong downsloping surface winds supporting above average
temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday
afternoon. These warm temperatures will be short lived as the
aforementioned weak impulses push a cold front through southwest
KS Tuesday night, dropping afternoon highs into the low to upper
50s Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, GEFS/EPS ensembles agree
the next strong upper level trough will be making its way into the
Desert Southwest. Easterly upslope flow will trend northerly
during the day Thursday as a surface trough deepens over the
southern plains. Given mostly cloudy skies and CAA, temperatures
will struggle into the 30s for most locations, the only exception
being the far southeast zones where temperatures could break into
the 40s. Confidence is increasing precipitation will also
accompany this system, as now nearly all of the GEFS and EPS
members, along with their deterministic counterparts, show
widespread precipitation through much of the day. The bulk of this
precipitation will likely fall as snow, as 850-mb temperatures
drop well below 0 Celsius within the zone of enhanced ascent.
Snow amounts will likely not be much, maybe 1-2", but anything
helps at this point in the drought.

Weak surface high pressure will build into the central plains
behind the upper level wave Friday, resulting in an uptick in
temperatures into the mid 40s/low 50s, but another upper level
shortwave trough will dig southeast on the heels of the Thursday
wave, giving our area another shot of cold air Friday night and
keeping temperatures mostly static for Saturday. At the end of the
period, southerly winds will return to the central plains between
surface high pressure over Dixie Alley and another lee cyclone
developing in eastern CO. As a result, temperatures will spike
back into the 60s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

As cirrus clears through this afternoon, south winds will increase
at all airports, gusting 35-40 kts. Areas of blowing dust may
reduce visibility at GCK/LBL this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop quickly in the vicinity of the airports during
the 22-00z time window, then organize quickly into a linear
complex and move east of all airports by 03z Mon. Some of these
storms may be severe, with the primary risk being outflow wind
gusts in excess of 50 kts. Gusts in excess of 60 kts are probable
southeast of DDC toward P28. Using the 12z FV3 as a guide,
included convective TEMPO groups where appropriate. Immediately
behind the storms, winds will turn sharply NWly and remain very
strong, gusting to near 40 kts. Intense NWly low level wind shear
is forecast overnight. VFR/SKC will resume after 06z Mon, and
continue through daylight Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  67  30  65 / 100   0   0   0
GCK  34  64  27  61 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  33  65  29  63 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  33  66  25  65 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  40  63  28  62 / 100   0   0   0
P28  43  68  34  66 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
322 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
322 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 /222 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected ahead of an advancing
dryline late This Afternoon through This Evening. The main threat
will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSZ074-084-262130-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
250 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Morton and Stanton
Counties through 330 PM CST...

At 250 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkhart, moving north at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Richfield around 310 PM CST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Manter and Johnson
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 10204 3772 10156 3699 10156 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 198DEG 57KT 3697 10201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-262215-
Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Stevens KS-Hamilton KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
325 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hamilton, Morton,
Kearny, Grant, western Stevens and Stanton Counties through 415 PM
CST/315 PM MST/...

At 325 PM CST/225 PM MST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Elkhart, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Richfield around 340 PM CST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Big Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST/700 PM
MST/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 10204 3808 10111 3736 10121 3700 10139
      3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 205DEG 51KT 3705 10188

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOVORKA