Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

691 
WWUS83 KDDC 200043
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
743 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...Fire Danger Diminishing This Evening...

KSZ074-075-084-085-200145-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230320T0100Z/
Stanton-Grant-Morton-Stevens-
743 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 074, 075, 084,
AND 085...

As of 730 pm CDT, red flag conditions continued at Elkhart,
Hugoton and Johnson City. As the sun sets and temperatures cool,
relative humidity will slowly climb above 15%. South winds will
remain elevated and gusty through tonight. 

$$

Turner

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023

An abnormally cold morning to start Sunday and the short term with
the cold upslope light northeast winds through sunrise under clear
skies with widespread teens expected. Winds will start turning
out of the south at this time as leeside troughing will develop
over eastern Colorado and deepen by late morning due to increasing
divergence aloft off the Rockies. Winds will increase to 30-35 mph
gusts with daytime heating and mixing to the surface lasting
throughout the remainder of the short term even after sunset with
no inversion expected to set up to cap anything aloft. Afternoon
high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, warmer further west with
overnight lows into the long term not near as cold due to the
elevated downslope winds in the 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Warming trend will continue through the long term forecast as
upper level ridging off the Rockies extends over the high plains.
Leeside troughing will be in place giving way to a gustier south
wind through much of the first half of the work week through
Wednesday. Afternoon highs back into the 60s Monday, some 70s
Tuesday, and widespread 70s for Wednesday. A progressive ripple of
a shortwave will propagate down the aforementioned l/w ridge. A
cold front will push through early Thursday morning that will
knock departures for the remainder of the long term forecast with
50s and 60s expected through next weekend. As for as precipitation
goes, there is some uncertainty on placement with the bulk of it
further north and east into central and south central portions of
the state. The best chances for the remainder of the CWA further
west and south, will be Thursday associated with post frontal
troughing and the occlusion of the surface low to the northeast.
Any precipitation at that point in time looks to stay in the
liquid form with even overnight lows late in the work week to stay
at or above freezing. Otherwise, expect a non-active northwest
flow aloft regime for the long term forecast and even beyond
waiting for anything to change at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

VFR conditions throughout the period for all TAF sites. Clear
skies and a light southerly wind less than 10kts to start. After
15Z, expect winds to increase to gusts of 30kts due to daytime
heating and leeside troughing lasting through the end of the
period. No other weather elements are expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions further west due
to increasing temperatures and wind speeds. Winds will be out of
the south to southwest picking up to 30-35 mph gusts by late
morning Sunday lasting throughout the remainder of the day and
overnight into Monday morning. Minimum relative humidity values
will be in the mid to upper teens west of Hwy 283 to include the
near critical and possible critical conditions. East will see low
to mid 20s being more elevated concerns for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  35  65  42 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  59  33  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  59  32  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  32  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  56  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
P28  50  33  62  43 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
145 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 /1245 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon as
winds switch to the south and increase to 30-35 mph gusts through the
evening hours. Afternoon high temperatures will push into the upper
50s to low 60s that will see minimum relative humidity values down
into the 15-25 percent range, lower further west to the Colorado
state line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

More fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday with at least
elevated concerns as temperatures increase and winds pick up from
the south to southwest gusting over 30 mph. Relative humidity
values look to stay above the 20 percent mark not expected red
flag conditions at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...