Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Dodge City, KS

625 
WWUS83 KDDC 080147
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
847 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023


KSZ084>086-080300-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-230508T0200Z/
Morton-Stevens-Seward-
847 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 084, 085, AND
086...

Conditions will continue to improve as the evening progresses. 


$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
422 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun May 6 2023

A frontal boundary will linger across western Kansas today. Ahead of
this front, compressional warming will result in very warm to hot temperatures
across portions of the FA. The eastern and southeastern counties will
see highs in the mid 90s today. Elsewhere, highs in the upper 80s to
around 90F degrees are expected. Breezy southwest winds of 10 to 20
mph are expected ahead of the front. The combination of the very warm
to hot temperatures and breezy winds will result in elevated fire weather
conditions across the southern portions of the FA today. Burning is
discouraged. Some of the fire danger might be mitigated slightly by
the recent rains. It is not a slam dunk for Red Flag conditions today,
so will defer on any fire weather headlines for now.

For tonight, the front will sag southward as the evening progresses.
Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected in the wake of the front.
Lows tonight should mainly be in the 50s. As far as storms go, it appears
that activity will remain north of the FA. Only have ghost pops in
the grids now, with the highest values (if you want to call them that)
is located across the Interstate 70 corridor. Unfortunately, it looks
doubtful we will see any drought relief during the short term period.

For Monday, we will get a brief relief from the heat as a high pressure
center settles over western Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are
expected across southwest Kansas. Winds will eventually change to SE
as the high moves off to the east. Dry conditions should continue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun May 6 2023

The main focus of the long term period is during the Tuesday through
the rest of the long term. Broad weak flow aloft is expected next week.
At the lower levels, Gulf of Mexico moisture will increase with higher
dewpoints advecting in across the region. This will set the stage for
periods of showers and thunderstorms across the FA. Both the GFS and
ECMWF ensembles are all over the place with storm development and placement.
Some of the members are considerably more wet than other members in
both model runs. Right now there is no clear picture as which solution
is correct (dry versus wet). At least there is a signal in which storms
will be at least possible versus getting nothing. As a result, will
continue with the NBM pops for now. The highest values will be located
across the eastern counties, where higher boundary layer moisture is
expected from the Gulf. Otherwise, temperatures during the long term
look to be slightly above normal with upper 70s to 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

VFR is expected through TAF pd with tranquil conditions. A frontal
boundary will linger across the state. Ahead of the front, SW 10-20
kt will continue. This front is expected to sag southward late
Sunday evening with a wind shift behind the fropa. Storms this
afternoon and tonight look to remain away from the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  52  86  58 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  90  50  85  56 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  90  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  92  50  85  54 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  91  52  85  56 /  10  10   0  20
P28  95  57  89  61 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1217 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023 /1117 PM MDT Sat May 6 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Warm to hot temperatures and breezy winds will result in elevated fire
danger across portions of the area today. Burning is discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.