Freeze Warning 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Key Messages:
 * Below normal highs today
 * Some clouds today
 * Possible freeze Sunday morning

Below normal highs are expected today as cool high pressure prevails
across the FA. Highs will be mainly in the 50s. A few 60 degree readings
may be possible along the Oklahoma border. Some CAA induced stratus
is expected to hang around and linger across central Kansas, so the
coolest highs are expected there. For viewing the annular eclipse...
it will likely be cloudy across central Kansas, so this will be problematic.
Some cirriform clouds may be possible during the partial eclipse for
the rest of the FA. We will have to see how opaque these clouds end
up being to see if the high clouds will be problematic or not to view
the partial eclipse. Otherwise, the weather for today will be tranquil.
Some good news is that the winds will be much weaker compared to yesterday.
NW to N winds will blow around 20 mph through the daylight hours.

For tonight, attention then turns to how cold it will get across the
FA. EC ensemble probabilities are indicating 70 to 90% of lows colder
than 40F for half the FA. High pressure should build southward Sunday
morning with winds going light. As a result, lows around freezing will
be possible west of Highway 283. A freeze headline may be needed. The
tranquil weather will continue Sunday with highs in the 50s to 60s.
No precipitation is expected during the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Key Messages:
 * Rebounding highs through midweek
 * Cold front Wednesday
 * Any meaningful moisture with front looks doubtful

UL shortwave ridging is expected across the greater region Monday and
Tuesday. The net result is rebounding highs. Highs in the 60s and 70s
for Monday with mainly 70s for Tuesday. Some minor good news during
this warm period is that the fire danger doesn't look too bad. Afternoon
relative humidity is expected to remain at moderate levels and the
winds are not forecast to be that strong either.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. An UL low will move across the northern
plains Wednesday. This feature will usher in the passage of a cold
front Wednesday across Kansas. Expect a dip in highs with more 60s
and a few 70s for midweek. EC ensemble probabilities indicate 20 to
50% chance of 0.01" moisture with this front. The deterministic EC
is pretty dry as well. Moisture trajectories ahead of this front are
unfavorable for any meaningful precipitation with most of the BL moisture
shunted off to the E and SE.

Beyond this, the rest of the forecast looks to be mild and dry with
a tranquil weather pattern continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

An MVFR stratus layer over roughly the northeast half of the area
has attempted to spread farther southeast, from impacting only
HYS to potentially impacting the DDC terminal as well. For the
rest of the day, this will be the prevailing situation, and DDC
may or may not see a period of broken stratus very early this
afternoon, while HAYS stays in the MVFR cloud cover. Winds Today
will remain gusty from the north while significantly weakening
after 00 UTC. Stratus clouds that might impact LBL or GCK will be
variable in the general region and better assessed later this
evening due to the high uncertainty at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  34  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  56  31  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  31  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  36  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  60  41  62  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-151215-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
200 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 /100 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Freeze Warning is in effect for a portion of the area.
See message for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.