Freeze Warning 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

397 
WWUS73 KDDC 220657
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
157 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

KSZ031-046-065-230045-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FZ.A.0002.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230422T1400Z/
Ellis-Rush-Pawnee-
Including the cities of Pfeifer, Hays, La Crosse, and Larned
157 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures 
  as low as 31. For the second Freeze Warning, sub-freezing 
  temperatures as low as 27 expected.

* WHERE...Ellis, Rush and Pawnee Counties.

* WHEN...For the first Freeze Warning, until 9 AM CDT this 
  morning. For the second Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight 
  to 9 AM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

KSZ066-230045-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FZ.A.0002.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
Stafford-
Including the cities of St. John, Stafford, and Macksville
157 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.

* WHERE...Stafford County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

KSZ064-078>081-230045-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
Hodgeman-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-
Including the cities of Jetmore, Hanston, Dodge City, Kinsley, 
Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, and Pratt
157 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Hodgeman, Ford, Edwards, Kiowa and Pratt Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

832 
WWUS73 KDDC 221358
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
858 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

KSZ031-046-065-230015-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230422T1400Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
Ellis-Rush-Pawnee-
Including the cities of Pfeifer, Hays, La Crosse, and Larned
858 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CDT SUNDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.

* WHERE...Ellis, Rush and Pawnee Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

KSZ064-066-078>081-230015-
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.230423T0500Z-230423T1400Z/
Hodgeman-Stafford-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-
Including the cities of Jetmore, Hanston, St. John, Stafford, 
Macksville, Dodge City, Kinsley, Lewis, Greensburg, Haviland, 
and Pratt
858 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.

* WHERE...Hodgeman, Stafford, Ford, Edwards, Kiowa and Pratt 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday evening)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

A quiet night is expected across the FA tonight. High pressure will
prevail across the greater region. There will be a piece of energy
that will move across the state through the overnight hours. The main
impact from this will be some mid level clouds. The NW winds will eventually
turn NE through the overnight period and may briefly increase in magnitude
this occurs. Otherwise, lows around 30F in the northern counties to
mid to upper 30s across the southern zones. Will be issuing a freeze
warning for central Kansas as these counties are the more susceptible
for freeze damage per our latest guidance as well some interoffice
collaboration.

For Saturday, a tranquil weather pattern is expected as high pressure
continues to prevail across the greater region. Highs tomorrow should
top out in the lower to mid 50s. Some minor good news with the cooler
highs is that the fire danger will be low tomorrow and we can get a
continued break from the fire danger. NE winds will blow 10 to 20 mph
through much of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Another fairly cold morning is expected Sunday morning. Lows will bottom
out in the upper 20s across central Kansas to lower to mid 30s across
the rest of the FA. Will eventually issue a freeze watch for central
Kansas later on in the shift. Here, these counties are the most susceptible
to freeze damage per our local guidance and interoffice coordination.
The counties in the NW and W won't see freeze headlines until April
24th per our local office guidance. Having said that, might be best
to cover any plants (or bring them inside) and consider any potential
impacts on sprinkler systems if they have been turned on already.

So the $64000 question on everyones mind... and the real meat and potatoes
of the forecast... will we get rain next week?!

Well I am cautiously optimistic. The deterministic models are doing
what the do... waffling back and forth between wet and dry per each
individual run as far as rain amounts are concerned and location. They
are not particularly useful at this time. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles
also so a considerable spread between wet and dry solutions. The bottom
line, it is way too early to even speculate on specific rain amounts
and location. Right now we are watching both deterministic and ensemble
runs to see if there is any particular trend in one way or another.
Right now that trend is ambiguous. The overall trend of us seeing something
versus nothing seems to be holding true. Regardless of what happens,
our area could see a very beneficial stratiform rain with no severe
weather that could potentially cover a large area. What a welcomed
weather pattern change after months of getting dryslotted (missing
precipitation), covered in a thick dust, and having wildfire concerns.
Check back on the forecast as we will be able to fine tune the rain
amounts as confidence and the trend increases and becomes more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

VFR expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds will move across
the terminals in the morning, but no further flight reductions are
expected. NW 5-15 kt will continue today, becoming NE 10-20 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  33  54  34 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  61  32  53  33 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  64  34  53  33 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  64  34  54  33 /   0  10   0  30
HYS  60  30  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  67  38  57  35 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-220745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 /144 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated fire danger mainly for areas along and north of highway
50 where northwest winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 and
relative humidity values will fall to around 15-20%.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Frost will be possible Sunday morning for areas from Wakeeney to
St. John as lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...