Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Currently, there is some light showers and isolated thunderstorms across
NW Kansas. This activity is the most immediate short term concern and
would have little impacts overall and only impact the NW zones. Otherwise,
the main rain event is for mid to late evening tonight. Our 12Z RAOB
measured a PWAT of 1.55". This is above normal for the time of year.
By this evening, the forecast PWAT is expected to be in the 1.25 to
1.75" range. We are dealing with a very moist atmosphere and the QPF
amounts we have forecast bears this out. For storms, afternoon thunderstorms
will develop along the higher terrain of Colorado. This activity will
eventually shift SE as the evening wears on and should push across
the Kansas prairie later this evening. The best timing of this activity
is 6 pm to midnight. The main two threats are damaging convective outflows
of 60+ mph and very heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible.
Amounts of 1-3" will be possible for at least half of the FA. Have
expanded the Flood Watch farther east to account for this possible
evolution. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5" inches cannot be ruled out either
in more isolated spots. Have the highest of confidence in our western
zones for heavy rainfall. Storms will quickly move out of the FA during
the early morning hours. This is our last shot at precipitation for
a while, so hopefully most of you see some good amounts with preferably
less severe storms. Again, damaging winds is a distinct possibility
as this MCS rolls across the Kansas plain. For Saturday, the atmosphere
will have been worked over. Not expecting any storms in the wake of
the MCS. Highs tomorrow will be extremely pleasant with values in the
upper 70s. Get out and enjoy the highs because Summer and its ugly
high temperatures rears its head for the rest of the extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The rest of the extended period with be hot and dry. Sunday will be
the transition day with highs in the 80s. Monday and beyond, 90s will
prevail. A 597 dm high will plant itself across the greater region
and will be the impetus for the hot weather. Storm chances looks nil
as the anticyclone continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
with a few 100s degree readings possible as well. Lows are expected
to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints are not forecast
to be as high as they have been, so there are no slam dunk heat headlines
that are obvious for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Radar observations across southwest KS show decaying showers and
thunderstorms are impacting all terminals, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs
and vis. These conditions will continue for the next few hours as
the convective activity slowly makes its way through the area.
Given significant precipitation will have fallen from these
storms, abundant moisture will support lingering low stratus and
IFR cigs through much of the morning, recovering to MVFR by
16-17Z, and then finally VFR by mid-afternoon. Otherwise, strong
but variable winds will be likely within any thunderstorms that
impact any terminals, but light and variable winds should prevail
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  80  61  87 /  90  20   0   0
GCK  62  77  59  87 /  90  20   0   0
EHA  62  76  59  88 /  80  20  10   0
LBL  64  77  60  88 /  90  20  10   0
HYS  62  82  61  89 /  90  20   0   0
P28  66  80  63  87 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ early this morning for
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>080-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Springer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 /155 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely to roll across southwest KS
tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, however an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1139 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

KSZ085-086-210515-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
1139 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Seward
and southern Stevens Counties through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1139 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hugoton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Seward
and southern Stevens Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10155 3722 10137 3700 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 300DEG 31KT 3711 10135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOVORKA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Lakin             37.89N 101.23W
07/20/2023  M62 MPH          Kearny             KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station LKUK1 Lakin.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

KSZ064-077-078-087-088-210545-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
1207 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Ford, southeastern
Hodgeman, northern Meade, eastern Gray and northern Clark Counties
through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1207 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Ensign, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Bloom, Ford, Bucklin and Kingsdown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10061 3791 10037 3793 9960 3731 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 279DEG 26KT 3761 10007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HOVORKA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Hugoton           37.17N 101.37W
07/20/2023  M66 MPH          Stevens            KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KHQG Hugoton.

&&

RB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Liberal           37.03N 100.97W
07/21/2023  M56 MPH          Seward             KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KLBL Liberal.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Liberal                 37.04N 100.94W
07/21/2023  M70 MPH          Seward             KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

RB