Wind Chill Warning 2, NWS Cheyenne, WY

707 
WWUS45 KCYS 311240
WSWCYS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

WYZ110-010000-
/O.CON.KCYS.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCYS.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230201T2100Z/
North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington and Elk Mountain
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected, along with 
  significant blowing and drifting snow resulting in possible 
  ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH 
  producing localized visibility reductions to one quarter of a 
  mile or less.

* WHERE...North Snowy Range Foothills including Arlington and 
  Elk Mountain along Interstate 80 between Laramie and Rawlins.

* WHEN...Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM MST Tuesday. Winter 
  Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous travel conditions due to significant 
  blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities may be reduced to one 
  quarter of a mile or less at times. Dangerously cold wind 
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in 10 minutes or 
  less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WYZ101-104-105-109-111-113-115-311600-
/O.CON.KCYS.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
Converse County Lower Elevations-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Laramie Valley-
Including the cities of Douglas, Glenrock, Bill, Deer Creek, 
Seminoe Dam, Medicine Bow, Shirley Basin, Rawlins, Baggs, 
Saratoga, Encampment, Laramie, and Bosler
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Converse County and the lower elevations of Carbon and 
  Albany Counties. This includes the cities of Laramie, Rawlins, 
  Douglas, and Saratoga.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

WYZ116-010000-
/O.EXA.KCYS.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230201T2100Z/
/O.CON.KCYS.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
South Laramie Range-
Including the cities of Buford, Pumpkin Vine, and Vedauwoo
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected, along with
  significant blowing and drifting snow resulting in possible
  ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH 
  producing localized visibility reductions to one quarter of a 
  mile or less.

* WHERE...South Laramie Range.

* WHEN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday. Winter 
  Weather Advisory from 11 PM MST this evening until 2 PM MST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous travel conditions due to significant 
  blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities may be reduced to one 
  quarter of a mile or less at times. Dangerously cold wind 
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in 10 minutes or 
  less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WYZ106-010000-
/O.CON.KCYS.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCYS.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230201T2100Z/
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Including the city of Bordeaux
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected, along with 
  significant blowing and drifting snow resulting in possible 
  ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH 
  producing localized visibility reductions to one quarter of a 
  mile or less.

* WHERE...Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County 
  including Bordeaux along Interstate 25 between Chugwater and 
  Wheatland.

* WHEN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday. Winter 
  Weather Advisory from 11 PM MST this evening until 2 PM MST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous travel conditions due to significant 
  blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities may be reduced to one 
  quarter of a mile or less at times. Dangerously cold wind 
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in 10 minutes or 
  less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
knit hat, and mittens.

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-103-107-108-112-114-
117>119-311600-
/O.CON.KCYS.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, Bridgeport, 
Bayard, Redington, Kimball, Sidney, Brownson, Harrison, Agate, 
Lusk, Redbird, Garrett, Esterbrook, Wheatland, Guernsey, 
Torrington, Centennial, Albany, Whitaker, Federal, Horse Creek, 
Cheyenne, and Pine Bluffs
540 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 30 
  degrees below zero.

* WHERE...Southeast Wyoming and the Western Nebraska Panhandle.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerously cold wind chills could lead to 
  hypothermia and can cause frostbite on exposed skin in 30 
  minutes or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
knit hat, and mittens.

&&

$$

499 
WWUS45 KCYS 311616
WSWCYS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
916 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

WYZ110-010030-
/O.EXP.KCYS.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCYS.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230201T2100Z/
North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington and Elk Mountain
916 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Blowing and drifting snow. Localized ground blizzard
  conditions possible. Wind gusts up to 70 MPH. 

* WHERE...North Snowy Range Foothills including Arlington and 
  Elk Mountain along Interstate 80 between Laramie and Rawlins.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM MST Wednesday. A lull in the strongest winds
  will occur this afternoon, with winds increasing again later
  this afternoon through Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Dangerous travel conditions due to significant blowing
  and drifting snow. Visibilities may be reduced to one quarter of
  a mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WYZ101-104-105-109-111-113-115-311730-
/O.EXP.KCYS.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
Converse County Lower Elevations-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Laramie Valley-
Including the cities of Douglas, Glenrock, Bill, Deer Creek, 
Seminoe Dam, Medicine Bow, Shirley Basin, Rawlins, Baggs, 
Saratoga, Encampment, Laramie, and Bosler
916 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures will continue to increase through this morning. 

$$

WYZ106-116-010030-
/O.EXP.KCYS.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
/O.CON.KCYS.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230201T2100Z/
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
South Laramie Range-
Including the cities of Bordeaux, Buford, Pumpkin Vine, 
and Vedauwoo
916 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Blowing and drifting snow. Localized ground blizzard
  conditions possible. Wind gusts up to 70 MPH. 

* WHERE...Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County 
  including Bordeaux along Interstate 25 between Chugwater and 
  Wheatland.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM MST Wednesday. A lull in the strongest winds
  will occur this afternoon, with winds increasing again later
  this afternoon through Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Dangerous travel conditions due to significant blowing
  and drifting snow. Visibilities may be reduced to one quarter of
  a mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ102-103-107-108-112-114-
117>119-311730-
/O.EXP.KCYS.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230131T1600Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, Bridgeport, 
Bayard, Redington, Kimball, Sidney, Brownson, Harrison, Agate, 
Lusk, Redbird, Garrett, Esterbrook, Wheatland, Guernsey, 
Torrington, Centennial, Albany, Whitaker, Federal, Horse Creek, 
Cheyenne, and Pine Bluffs
916 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures will continue to increase through this morning. 

$$

CLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
957 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Snow has ended across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle,
with lingering extremely cold temperatures continuing now becoming
the primary weather impact through tonight. Mostly clear skies are
expected across most of the area overnight w/ mid-level drying and
good subsidence in the wake of a mid-level short wave. Expect most
areas to see good radiational cooling tonight, although increasing
low-level warm air advection near 700 millibars may tend to offset
cooling to some extent. Even so, deep, fresh snowpack suggests low
temperatures well below guidance, possibly in the teens below zero
for most of the CWA outside of the higher terrain. Wind Chill Adzy
remains in effect for all of southeast Wyoming and the western Neb
Panhandle through 9 AM MST Tuesday. Some areas could very well see
warning-criteria wind chills under -30 deg F tonight, but over all
confidence is fairly low for any specific areas given the presence
of WAA aloft.

High winds may return to the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming
overnight or early Tuesday morning with the initial passage of the
aforementioned short wave disturbance. A strong (~1045 mb) surface
high over western Wyoming, coupled with modest pressure falls over
the western Dakotas will dramatically enhanced low-level gradients
overnight w/ H85 CAG-CPR gradients climbing to 70-80 meters by 09z
to 12z Tuesday. 700-800 mb flow is less than ideal, and the 700 mb
CAG-CPR gradient only peaks around 45 meters, which is usually not
particularly favorable for high winds at Arlington. However, these
areas near Arlington have historically done well in local warm air
advection regimes as this helps to establish/strengthen the stable
layer near mountain top. Also, in-house probabilistic guidance has
been very consistent w/ a strong signal for warning-criteria gusts
as early as 06-09z. Strong west-east oriented MSLP gradients along
the Laramie Range could also contribute to elevated wind gusts for
Bordeaux overnight into early Tuesday morning, although once again
low-level flow is really not impressive for this time period. ARL-
BRX MSLP gradients near 8 millibars is also in the very upper tier
of values for historical high wind occurrences at Bordeaux. Still,
would prefer to see the surface trough positioned a bit further to
the east of I-25, but it should be just far enough east. Like ARL,
this does not appear to be a traditional setup for high winds, but
in-house logistic regression models and recently developed Random-
Forest model guidance both show very high probabilities for strong
winds near warning criteria at Bordeaux as well. In addition, also
seeing multiple forecast parameter space analogs with gusts 45-50+
MPH at Both Arlington and Bordeaux from 09z to 15z.

After this brief increase in wind speeds later tonight and Tuesday
morning, a slight lull may occur Tuesday afternoon given weakening
low-level gradients. CAG-CPR and RWL-DGW gradients are expected to
increase markedly once again Tuesday night through Wednesday, with
H85 CAG-CPR gradients exceeding 80 meters becoming quite favorable
for Arlington. Although the MSLP gradient across the Laramie Range
will be a bit less than a few hours earlier, 3 to 5 millibars will
likely be sufficient for strong winds at Bordeaux. 700-800 mb flow
also increases to 50+ knots at that time, along w/ a strengthening
omega couplet which may suggest mountain waves. If the wind prones
do not hit warning criteria Tuesday morning, overall confidence is
much higher Tue night and Wed. Opted for a High Wind Warning valid
from 11 PM MST this evening until 2 PM MST Wednesday.

The Arlington and Bordeaux areas both saw 8-12 inches of light and
fluffy snow with the recent storm with temperatures remaining very
cold today. However, mostly sunny skies today may have contributed
to some crusting of the snow pack despite daytime highs in the low
single digits above and below zero. Nonetheless, would expect this
type of snow pack to be extremely blowable to the concern is there
for ground blizzard conditions to accompany the winds. Have issued
a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow alongside the High Wind
Warning as there are simply too many variables to know exactly how
bad visibilities will get due to blowing snow. Will defer upgrades
to Blizzard Warnings to later shifts as WYDOT observations and web
cams warrant.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night - Monday)
Issued at 238 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Wednesday night/Thursday...Fortunately, this period looks relatively
benign as a ridge axis aloft stretches from western Utah to western
Montana, with northwest flow over our counties in the low and mid
levels. Residual snow cover will still produce enough of an albedo
to limit maximum temperatures.

Friday...Fast moving and progressive mid level flow prevails as a
weak shortwave trough aloft moves into western Wyoming. Looking at
the low and mid level flow along with our in house wind
probabilities, we may see another high wind event shaping up for our
wind prone locales. The downslope winds will also aid in producing
the continuing warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius
yielding high temperatures in the 40s east of I-25.

Saturday...The continuation of the high wind event looks most likely
early in the day in the wake of the shortwave trough passage and
with decent downward vertical motion and moderate low and mid level
winds as well as our in house office wind model. Stronger winds
could potentially be felt outside the wind prone locations as well
as in the wind prones. Somewhat cooler temperatures in the wake of
the cold frontal passage.

Sunday...Progressive flow aloft prevails with a transitory ridge
aloft moving overhead, transitioning to west southwest flow aloft in
the afternoon and evening. The relative strength of the low and mid
level flow suggests possible high winds continuing for our Wyoming
wind prone locations, especially for Arlington and Elk Mountain.

Monday...Somewhat cooler and less windy conditions expected to
develop as split flow aloft forms overhead with a Northern Plains
shortwave trough and Four Corners shortwave trough. Low and mid
level moisture appears sufficient for at least a chance of snow
mainly west of Interstate 25.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 950 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR expected at all terminals through the forecast period. Most
terminals will see VRB winds overnight into midday Tuesday. MIFG
chances are low at this time, so have left them out for areas that
have VRB winds. The most probable areas will be along and near
the North Platte River Valley (KBFF & KSNY) if MIFG does occur
overnight. Wind gusts expected to increase to 25-30 knots at
KRWL, with remaining terminals experiencing 15 knots or lower for
westerly winds/gusts on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days due to
widespread recent snowfall and well below average temperatures.
Snow will come to an end this morning across the area, but
temperatures remain bitterly cold through Tuesday morning.
Dangerously cold wind chills are likely through mid-morning today,
and then again tonight into mid-morning Tuesday. Temperatures
start to moderate Tuesday with a gradual warming trend for the
remainder of the work week. Strong winds are possible in the wind
prone areas of southeast Wyoming Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ101>119.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-110.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-110.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST Tuesday for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...MN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>105-107>109-111>119-
010100-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
548 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Expect another night of bitterly cold temperatures and wind
chills. Wind Chill Advisories are in effect until 9 AM Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Very cold temperatures begin to moderate Tuesday. Patchy blowing
snow will be possible as temperatures warm during the middle of
the week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

WYZ106-110-010100-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-
548 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Expect another night of bitterly cold temperatures and wind
chills. Wind Chill Advisories are in effect until 9 AM Tuesday.

Winds will begin strengthening overnight with gusts up to 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Strong winds are likely Tuesday through Wednesday morning with
gusts up to 70 MPH expected. The strong winds will create blowing
and drifting snow, with potentially near ground blizzard conditions,
especially near Arlington. High Wind Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

MAJ