Tornado Warning 34, NWS Cheyenne, WY

562 
WWUS55 KCYS 270229
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
829 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NEC033-105-270245-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230627T0245Z/
Cheyenne NE-Kimball NE-
829 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR WESTERN
CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES...
    
At 828 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located approximately 1 mile 
south of Kimball, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Off-duty NWS employee confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
western Cheyenne and southeastern Kimball Counties.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 23 and
24.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4111 10371 4123 10363 4112 10327 4100 10338
      4100 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 286DEG 19KT 4113 10354 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN

$$

Wills

412 
WWUS55 KCYS 270236
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
836 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NEC033-105-270245-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230627T0245Z/
Cheyenne NE-Kimball NE-
836 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR WESTERN
CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES...
    
At 836 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles south of Dix, or 11 miles southeast of Kimball,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
western Cheyenne and southeastern Kimball Counties.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 23 and
24.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 10369 4123 10363 4112 10327 4100 10338
      4100 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 286DEG 19KT 4112 10349 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Wills

063 
WWUS55 KCYS 270243 RRA
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
843 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NEC033-105-270253-
/O.EXP.KCYS.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230627T0245Z/
Cheyenne NE-Kimball NE-
843 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN KIMBALL
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM MDT...
    
The Tornado Warning that was previously in effect has been reissued 
for southeast Kimball County and southwest Cheyenne County, and is 
in effect until 915pm. Please refer to that bulletin for the latest 
severe weather information. However small hail, gusty winds and 
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4114 10369 4123 10363 4112 10327 4100 10338
      4100 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 286DEG 19KT 4111 10345 

$$

Wills

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

The main forecast challenges over the next few days mainly deal with
the ongoing isolated to scattered storm potential over portions of
the area.

Currently we have mostly clear skies across the area after the
morning cloud cover has mostly broken up. The early morning
convection modified the surface airmass for most areas east of the
Laramie range, causing a lot of hires models to be playing catchup
this afternoon. The low levels remain quite moist in this area with
dewpoints mainly in the 50s, while very dry air tries to work in
aloft. This has mixed down to the surface for areas west of the
Laramie range, sending dewpoints plummeting into the teens, while a
sharp dryline sits close to the crest of the Laramie range. The main
uncertainty for today and tonight is the location and development of
any convection. Stronger than expected nocturnal convection has
thrown a wrench into this evening's forecast by turning over the
atmosphere up north and leaving a few outflow boundaries scattered
about the area. The HRRR and NAMnest have been fairly consistent
since 12z in showing a lone supercell initiating off of the remnant
outflow boundary between 22z and 00z this evening, and then
skirting off to the east across the central/southern panhandle.
The main uncertainty is if this potential cell can survive through
the substantially dry middle atmosphere located over Wyoming and
make it to the more favorable moisture environment further east,
or get choked off quickly. If it can survive, the potential storm
would encounter a moist, unstable environment with 0-6km shear of
50 to 60 knots, which could support large hail growth. This
prompted an expansion of the Marginal risk to the south and an
introduction of slight chance PoPs for most areas east of the
Laramie range.

We will also have to watch the potential for another round of Dawes
county clippers this evening and into tonight. Moist isentropic lift
will develop this evening in the presence of substantial elevated
instability and ample shear. Our area will again be on the edge of
the favorable moisture environment, but the dynamics suggest this
activity could expand a little further southward than what the hires
models are showing right now. Again, the main uncertainty is if
something will be able to develop this far south, but if it does, it
will have the potential to produce large hail and gusty winds. This
looks like a very late show, starting after 00z and going
potentially through 09z or so. The main area of concern here is
Converse, Niobrara, Sioux, Dawes, and Box Butte counties.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis of the stout but intense ridge located
over Texas will shift slightly eastward with a shortwave moving over
the top of it. This should push the dryline further east and bring
gusty southwest winds to much of the area along and west of I-25.
Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely. Overall a warm and dry day for the
southern half of the CWA (especially west), though deeper moisture
will likely remain present further north and east. Added lift from a
weak shortwave should help kick off some convection once again
mainly along and north of a line from the Ferris mountains to
Wheatland to Alliance. The unstable and highly sheared environment
will remain in place, so any storms that develop will have the
potential to produce large hail and gusty winds, but again the
uncertainty is in the development and location of any storms. For
Wednesday, expect the dryline to back into the Laramie range in the
morning, bringing in higher low-level moisture and overall
precipitable water to areas along and east of the Laramie range.
Thus, rinse and repeat for the forecast with rounds of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon, with the
potential to become severe collocated in the unstable, sheared
environment. Added in more widespread chance PoPs to most of the
area except southern Carbon county for Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures should be similar to Tuesday west of the
Laramie range, and a little cooler to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Long Range models still indicate a return to an unsettled weather
pattern starting during the middle of this week across southeast
Wyoming and the rest of the Nebraska Panhandle. Unsettled weather is
also expected to linger into this weekend with broad northwest flow
aloft, which will result in above average precipitation and cooler
than normal temperatures for early July.

All models continue to show the next upper level Pacific trough
moving into the Utah/Colorado/Wyoming region for Thursday and
Friday. 500mb heights are around one standard deviation below
average for late June with this trough, so expect a good chance of
cooler than normal conditions and numerous showers and thunderstorms
given recent above average boundary layer moisture and PW's.
Thursday still appears to be the best day for severe thunderstorms
with MLCAPE between 1500 to 2500 j/kg and 0-6km shear above 45 to 50
knots. A potent shortwave ahead of the main trough is expected to
lift northeast across the area during the afternoon. Kept increased
POP towards 80 percent across the bulk of far southeast Wyoming and
most of western Nebraska. Cooler temperatures are expected with
highs dropping into the 70s and possibly staying in the upper 60s
Friday afternoon. Threat of flooding due to excessive rainfall may
return late this week and next weekend due to high PW's and training
of storms.

Once the Pacific upper level trough exits the area to the east
Friday afternoon into the weekend, mid to upper level flow will back
into the northwest. Historically, this is typically and unsettled
and stormy weather pattern for southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska for early July. So will have to closely monitor boundary
layer conditions coming up over the next few days. Expect below
normal temperatures during this period with a slow warming trend by
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, especially
across southeast Wyoming with some stronger storms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Main aviation concern this evening will be an isolated strong storm
or two. Expect frequent lightning, hail, and gusty winds with any
storm. Heavy rain could also lower visibility and CIGs. Other than
an isolated storm, gusty winds are expected at western Nebraska
terminals overnight with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Increased
moisture from more easterly flow will allow for the development of
low stratus. Lowered CIGs at western Nebraska terminals but did not
go below VFR as confidence is low to medium of this occurring.
Gusty winds return Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

While fuels remaining in greenup status will prevent the issuance of
any fire weather headlines, near critical weather conditions are
possible across portions of the area along and west of the Laramie
range over the next few days. Very dry air in the middle atmosphere
moving in from the west is mixing down to the surface over Carbon
and Albany counties this afternoon, producing RH below 10% in some
areas with gusty southwest winds. Much higher moisture is present
east of the Laramie range, with a very sharp dryline in between. The
dryline is expected to dance back and forth across the I-25 corridor
over the next few days, creating a low confidence forecast in RH for
the Laramie range and eastern foothills.

Tuesday looks similar to today with warm temperatures and very dry
air to the west. Expect minimum RH to drop below 15% across most of
Carbon and Albany counties, as well as portions of Platte and
Laramie counties as the dryline retreats eastward. Southwest winds
gusting over 40 MPH are also likely in the same areas. Similar on
Wednesday, but for a smaller area as moisture surges back westward
and winds lighten up a bit. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible mainly east of the Laramie range each afternoon. Expect
cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and greater precipitation
chances for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...MN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
330 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NEZ019>021-054-055-WYZ103>119-270930-
Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill County-Kimball County-
Cheyenne County-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
330 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. Gusty winds will
be possible across Carbon county and southern Albany county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms begins on
Tuesday and are expected to continue through Friday. Some storms on
Tuesday and Wednesday may be severe with, strong winds and large
hail being the primary hazards.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ101-102-270930-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-
330 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska and east central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
for northern portions of southeast Wyoming and northern portions of
the Nebraska Panhandle. Some of these storms may be severe. Large
hail, potentially greater than 2 inches, and strong winds are the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue through Friday. Some storms on Tuesday and Wednesday may
be severe, with strong winds and large hail being the primary
hazards.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
804 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Hail             8 W Kimball             41.23N 103.81W
06/26/2023  M3.00 inch       Kimball            NE   Trained Spotter

            2.5 to 3 inch hail at Oliver Reservoir. This
            was accompanied by 60 mph winds.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
808 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     Hail             1 S Kimball             41.22N 103.66W
06/26/2023  M1.50 inch       Kimball            NE   Storm Chaser

            Report via Twitter.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Gun Barrel        41.43N 104.38W
06/26/2023                   Laramie            WY   Trained Spotter

            2 Center Pivorts Overturned.

&&

rec

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
814 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Gun Barrel         41.42N 104.32W
06/26/2023                   Laramie            WY   Trained Spotter

            Flipped Pivot with 90 mph winds.

&&

rec

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
816 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     Hail             Kimball                 41.23N 103.66W
06/26/2023  M1.75 inch       Kimball            NE   Trained Spotter

            Golf Balls in Kimball.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
821 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     Hail             3 SE Kimball            41.21N 103.63W
06/26/2023  M2.50 inch       Kimball            NE   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reported tennis ball hail
            3 miles SE of Kimball, NE.

&&

AM