Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Warnings in 2023
Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this winter storm warning at Dec 17, 2023, 2:20 PM EST for Somerset County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Dec 18, 2023, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 21 hr. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 17, 2023, 2:20 PM EST (19:20 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 18, 2023, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 19, 2023, 10:00 AM EST
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
County Somerset County, PA
The radar
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 5:00 AM EST | SNOW 7.5 | 3 Ne Seven Springs, PA | Cocorahs station PA-SM-1 Hidden Valley 0.3 ENE. |
| Dec 19, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 1.3 | 4 Ene Callimont, PA | CO-OP Observer station GLNP1 Glencoe 1 E. |
| Dec 19, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.5 | 1 Sw Confluence, PA | CO-OP Observer station CFLP1 Confluence 1 SW. |
| Dec 19, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.8 | Somerset, PA | CO-OP Observer station SMRP1 Somerset. |
| Dec 19, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.3 | 1 Ne Somerset, PA | KB3OUX. |
| Dec 19, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 6 | 2 Ene Seven Springs, PA | CO-OP Observer station HVJP1 Hidden Valley. |
| Dec 19, 8:15 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | 1 Ne Salisbury, PA | N3RUT. |
| Dec 19, 9:40 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | Hooversville, PA | N3VFG. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1890 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 184 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 265 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
242 WWUS41 KCTP 171920 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 PAZ033-181030- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Somerset- Including the city of Somerset 220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Local amounts of 6 to 8 inches on the ridges possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Somerset County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. Localized areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as temperatures drop below freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ005-010-017-024-181030- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria- Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown 220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as temperatures drop below freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ004-181030- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Warren- Including the city of Warren 220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with the potential for over 6 inches mainly over northwest Warren County. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as temperatures drop below freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web at weather.gov/ctp. && $$ Bowen
4 follow-up statements
999 WWUS41 KCTP 180953 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 PAZ033-182200- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Somerset- Including the city of Somerset 453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 7 inches, with the highest amounts on the ridgetops west of Somerset. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph tonight. * WHERE...Somerset County. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow should fall tonight. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ004-182200- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ Warren- Including the city of Warren 453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with the highest amounts over Northwest Warren County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel impacts will occur tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility in some areas. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ005-010-017-024-182200- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/ McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria- Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown 453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel impacts should occur tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$
231 WWUS41 KCTP 182000 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 PAZ033-191100- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Somerset- Including the city of Somerset 300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys, with the highest amounts of 6 to 8 inches on the ridgetops west of Somerset. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph through tonight. * WHERE...Somerset County. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel impacts should occur tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ005-010-017-024-191100- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria- Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown 300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel impacts should occur tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ004-191100- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Warren- Including the city of Warren 300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible over Northwest Warren County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel impacts will occur tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility in some areas. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ Lambert
186 WWUS41 KCTP 191008 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 PAZ033-191500- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Somerset- Including the city of Somerset 508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys, with the highest amounts of 6 to 8 inches on the ridgetops west of Somerset. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Somerset County. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult in spots. * ADDITIONAL DETAIL...Gusty winds will result in blowing and drifting of the snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ005-010-017-024-191500- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria- Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown 508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds will result in blowing and drifting of the snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ PAZ004-191500- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Warren- Including the city of Warren 508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible over Northwest Warren County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Warren County. * WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds will result in blowing and drifting of the snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow covered roads and limited visibility in some areas. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ Martin
774 WWUS41 KCTP 191504 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 PAZ033-191615- /O.EXP.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Somerset- Including the city of Somerset 1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED... Snow showers will continue through midday before dissipating this afternoon. Little to no additional snow accumulation is expected. $$ PAZ004-005-010-017-024-191615- /O.EXP.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/ Warren-McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown 1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Snow showers will continue through midday before dissipating this afternoon. Little to no additional snow accumulation is expected. $$ MRS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 17, 11:54 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 11:54 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1154 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A strong coastal storm will bring heavy rain, strong blustery winds, and accumulating snowfall/heavy snow showers today into Tuesday. In the wake of the storm, expect much improved weather conditions by Wednesday with moderating temperatures into late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Little change in the current running forecast except for some minor modifications to temps and timing of the onset of steadier rain. It will be relatively mild with low clouds and areas of rain drifting north across mainly eastern and western parts of the CWA through 19Z before expanding to cover most or all of the CWA by late this afternoon. Moist upslope flow acrs Schuylkill County and a look at the poor vsby on webcams prompted the earlier issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, as I-81 runs much of the length of that county and at an elevation AOA 1600 ft MSL. The eastern edge of rain associated with a well defined lead northern stream trough over IL/IN early this morning is impacting Warren County and could reach Mckean County before 18Z. Expect steadier rain to expand from south to north through the afternoon/evening. A strong coastal storm will move across northern FL this morning and deepen rapidly while tracking northeastward along the Carolina coast to a position near the Delmarva/NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. This multi-faceted storm system will bring a "triple threat" of heavy rain, wind, and snow to central PA over the next 24 to 48 hours. Confidence in heavy rain potential remains high with storm totals squarely in the 2-3" range across the flood watch area. Locally higher amounts up to 4" remain possible especially in the favored higher terrain of east-central PA where upslope lift will be enhanced/maximized with southeast exposure. QPF signal is consistent for heaviest rainfall to occur late tonight into early Monday (~03-12Z) from south to north. Hires guidance shows peak rain rates in the 0.5-0.75 in/hr range given limited instability and distance from higher theta-E air. This is still quite efficient for mid December and will pose the greatest risk for rapid-onset type flooding. As for gusty winds, although an anomalous low-level jet will overrun eastern PA later this afternoon and evening, model sounding profiles also show the existence of an inversion above the boundary layer, which should prevent the strongest winds from mixing to the surface, save for perhaps the highest elevations. Colder air wrapping into the backside of the storm behind a blustery NW flow could begin to change rain to snow over the Laurel ridges by the end of the period as we transition into the next phase of the storm. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Winter weather in the Laurels and Alleghenies is the next concern. Confidence is high (>80%) that accumulating snow will develop within a multi-lake fetch from Erie and Huron coincident with synoptic scale lift and wrap-around moisture. A potent, reinforcing northern stream wave will dig through the Ohio Valley and across CPA Monday night into Tuesday. Multi-model/ensemble signal for potentially heavy lake enhanced and upslope driven snow accums has increased this cycle (NBM 55-60% percent chance of >=6" along Laurel Mtn west of US219) and we issued a winter storm watch for Somerset County in coordination with PBZ. The strong gusty NW wind could enhance winter/travel impacts with blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility. There is also a growing potential for convective snow showers and isolated squalls to develop and will begin to message this within HWO and DSS briefings. Peak wind gusts just below advisory category thresholds (35-45 mph) for the event should develop from later Monday into early Tuesday as cold advection steepens lapse rates and improves downward momentum transfer. This will continue to highlighted in our HWO. The wind shift from southeast to northwest amidst saturated soils could support an elevated risk of localized power outages as trees sway and water logged limbs fall in the blustery conditions. Snow showers likely last through Tuesday morning before diminishing as high pressure over the Plains shifts to the east over WV Tuesday night. Temps on Monday likely exhibit a non-diurnal trend with Tuesday being the seasonably coldest day of the week with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Continuation of enhanced NW'ly flow in the wake of the sfc low will promote lake-enhanced precipitation through Tuesday morning. Plowable snowfall Monday night into Tuesday over the NW and along the Laurel Highlands remains likely with the NW flow providing enhanced fetch off lake Erie and a continuous upslope flow along the Allegheny mountains. The limiting factor will be the deep layer flow becoming more anticyclonic as this will cut into the residence time for the increased moisture and limit overall snow amounts. If given trends are maintained we'd expect some additional winter headlines to be needed for the Monday night- Tuesday timeframe. High pressure will begin building to the south after Tuesday morning and encourage a similar trend to what we have seen the last couple weeks. A slight warming in temps towards the end of the week and dry conditions expected until the next low pressure system approaches from the west during the weekend. Deterministic guidance does suggest a return of precipitation towards the end of the extended period as a sfc low approaches from the west. Timing and coverage remains uncertain at this time, especially with the last couple runs not being consistent, so we have capped PoPs at Chc/SChc for Friday night with higher chances coming in closer to the Saturday morning timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low CIGS and Low Level Wind Shear will highlight the upcoming 12-16 hours of the TAFs as a potent surface low and strong low level east to southeasterly flow progresses north along the Atlantic Seaboard today and tonight. The moist easterly flow at the surface being lifted across the higher Terrain of Central and Eastern PA will create areas of dense fog at elevations above 1600 ft MSL. A widespread moderate to heavy rain event will impact the region late this afternoon through early Monday with continued IFR to LIFR. Winds will shift to the NW late tonight into early Monday, along with snow showers across the northern and western mountains. Snow showers are expected to linger into at least the first part of Tuesday. As high pressure builds eastward late Tuesday and early Wed, expect the return to dry weather with VFR conditions. Outlook... Mon...Widespread restrictive conditions. Rain is expected to change to snow at KBFD and KJST, and taper off elsewhere. Tue...Snow should persist at KBFD and KJST, with variable conditions (VFR much of the time, but occasional restrictions in flurries/snow showers) elsewhere. Wed and Thu...Predominantly VFR. && .CLIMATE... It has been 325 days since the last measurable snowfall (>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This currently ranks as the 3rd longest run on record. There is a low probability for measurable snow Monday night into Tuesday; otherwise the longest run looks very much in jeopardy based on the forecast into next weekend. 1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020 2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007 3. 325 days ending 12/16/2023 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 5 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for PAZ033. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ058. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl LONG TERM...NPB/Bowen AVIATION...Lambert/Martin CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 10:44 AM EST, 3 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 PAZ019-025>027-034>036-045-181545- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Southern Clinton- 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A period of heavy rain late tonight could cause some isolated minor flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high- profile vehicles on Monday. Rain will change to snow Monday night with a light accumulation possible into Tuesday. Isolated heavy snow showers and squalls are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-181545- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Cambria- 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A period of moderate to heavy rain late tonight could cause some localized minor flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high- profile vehicles on Monday. Rain will change to snow Monday afternoon with a light accumulation likely impacting travel conditions Monday evening into Tuesday. Isolated heavy snow showers and squalls are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ033-181545- Somerset- 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A period of moderate to heavy rain late tonight could cause some localized minor flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056-057-059-063>066-181545- Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Rain will change to snow Monday night into Tuesday with a light accumulation possible. Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high- profile vehicles on Monday. A few power outages are possible with downed trees or limbs given preceding heavy rainfall and saturated soil. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ058-181545- Schuylkill- 1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Dense Fog Advisory. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Rain will change to snow Monday night into Tuesday with a light accumulation possible. Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high- profile vehicles on Monday. A few power outages are possible with downed trees or limbs given preceding heavy rainfall and saturated soil. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. Lambert
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Dec 17, 8:28 AM EST, 5 hours 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 828 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 PAZ057>059-064>066-171800- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- 828 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... Locally dense fog is occurring across the region this morning, as a result of moisture streaming in near the surface from the Atlantic Coast and the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays. Visibility will drop to under one quarter of a mile in some locations, especially across the higher terrain. Slow down and allow plenty of braking distance between you and the vehicle ahead. Plan for extra time to reach your travel destination. Areas of low visibility from the fog will likely persist across the higher terrain into this afternoon, but improve slowly throughout the valleys. Lambert
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 3:22 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | CTP | Somerset | 11 hr |
| Dec 17, 9:24 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | CTP | Schuylkill | 7 hr |
| Dec 17, 2:20 PM EST | Winter Storm Watch | CTP | Warren | 15 hr |
| Dec 17, 2:20 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | CTP | Cambria, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Warren | 44 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2023Every winter storm warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.