Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Warnings in 2023

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS State College, PA

December 17, 2023Somerset County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this winter storm warning at Dec 17, 2023, 2:20 PM EST for Somerset County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Dec 18, 2023, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 21 hr. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 17, 2023, 2:20 PM EST (19:20 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 18, 2023, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 19, 2023, 10:00 AM EST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA

County Somerset County, PA

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 19, 5:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.53 Ne Seven Springs, PACocorahs station PA-SM-1 Hidden Valley 0.3 ENE.
Dec 19, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.34 Ene Callimont, PACO-OP Observer station GLNP1 Glencoe 1 E.
Dec 19, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.51 Sw Confluence, PACO-OP Observer station CFLP1 Confluence 1 SW.
Dec 19, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.8Somerset, PACO-OP Observer station SMRP1 Somerset.
Dec 19, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.31 Ne Somerset, PAKB3OUX.
Dec 19, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 62 Ene Seven Springs, PACO-OP Observer station HVJP1 Hidden Valley.
Dec 19, 8:15 AM ESTSNOW 1.51 Ne Salisbury, PAN3RUT.
Dec 19, 9:40 AM ESTSNOW 1.5Hooversville, PAN3VFG.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2023-12-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2023-12-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 184 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
265 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

242 
WWUS41 KCTP 171920
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

PAZ033-181030-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerset
220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches. Local amounts of 6 to 8 inches on the ridges possible. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Somerset County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches. Localized areas of blowing
  snow and reduced visibility are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel
  impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as 
  temperatures drop below freezing. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ005-010-017-024-181030-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-
Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, 
Clearfield, and Johnstown
220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel
  impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as
  temperatures drop below freezing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ004-181030-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
Warren-
Including the city of Warren
220 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches with the potential for over 6 inches mainly
  over northwest Warren County. Winds could gust as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Warren County.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The periods of heaviest snowfall and travel
  impacts are expected between 8 PM Monday and 8 AM Tuesday as
  temperatures drop below freezing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel.

Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

The latest forecast information can be found on the
NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege,
or on the web at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

Bowen
4 follow-up statements
999 
WWUS41 KCTP 180953
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

PAZ033-182200-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerset
453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2
  to 7 inches, with the highest amounts on the ridgetops west of
  Somerset. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph tonight.

* WHERE...Somerset County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday. The
  heaviest snow should fall tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ004-182200-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
Warren-
Including the city of Warren
453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with
  the highest amounts over Northwest Warren County. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Warren County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel
  impacts will occur tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility in some areas.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ005-010-017-024-182200-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.231218T1800Z-231219T1500Z/
McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-
Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, 
Clearfield, and Johnstown
453 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel
  impacts should occur tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$
231 
WWUS41 KCTP 182000
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

PAZ033-191100-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerset
300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2
  to 5 inches in the valleys, with the highest amounts of 6 to 8
  inches on the ridgetops west of Somerset. Winds gusting as high
  as 45 mph through tonight.

* WHERE...Somerset County.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel
  impacts should occur tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ005-010-017-024-191100-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-
Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, 
Clearfield, and Johnstown
300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel
  impacts should occur tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ004-191100-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Warren-
Including the city of Warren
300 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with
  locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible over Northwest
  Warren County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Warren County.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and greatest travel 
  impacts will occur tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility in some areas.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

Lambert
186 
WWUS41 KCTP 191008
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

PAZ033-191500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerset
508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total accumulations of 2
  to 5 inches in the valleys, with the highest amounts of 6 to 8
  inches on the ridgetops west of Somerset. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Somerset County.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult in spots.

* ADDITIONAL DETAIL...Gusty winds will result in blowing and 
  drifting of the snow.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ005-010-017-024-191500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-
Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, DuBois, 
Clearfield, and Johnstown
508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...McKean, Elk, Clearfield and Cambria Counties.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds will result in blowing and
  drifting of the snow.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ004-191500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Warren-
Including the city of Warren
508 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, 
  with locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible over 
  Northwest Warren County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Warren County.

* WHEN...Through 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds will result in blowing and
  drifting of the snow.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snow
covered roads and limited visibility in some areas.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

Martin
774 
WWUS41 KCTP 191504
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

PAZ033-191615-
/O.EXP.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerset
1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Snow showers will continue through midday before dissipating this
afternoon. Little to no additional snow accumulation is expected.

$$

PAZ004-005-010-017-024-191615-
/O.EXP.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Warren-McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, 
DuBois, Clearfield, and Johnstown
1004 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Snow showers will continue through midday before dissipating this
afternoon. Little to no additional snow accumulation is expected.


$$

MRS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 17, 11:54 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 11:54 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong coastal storm will bring heavy rain, strong blustery
winds, and accumulating snowfall/heavy snow showers today into
Tuesday. In the wake of the storm, expect much improved weather
conditions by Wednesday with moderating temperatures into late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Little change in the current running forecast except for some
minor modifications to temps and timing of the onset of steadier
rain. It will be relatively mild with low clouds and areas of
rain drifting north across mainly eastern and western parts of
the CWA through 19Z before expanding to cover most or all of the
CWA by late this afternoon.

Moist upslope flow acrs Schuylkill County and a look at the poor
vsby on webcams prompted the earlier issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory, as I-81 runs much of the length of that county and at
an elevation AOA 1600 ft MSL.

The eastern edge of rain associated with a well defined lead
northern stream trough over IL/IN early this morning is
impacting Warren County and could reach Mckean County before
18Z. Expect steadier rain to expand from south to north through
the afternoon/evening.

A strong coastal storm will move across northern FL this morning
and deepen rapidly while tracking northeastward along the
Carolina coast to a position near the Delmarva/NJ vicinity by
12Z Monday. This multi-faceted storm system will bring a "triple
threat" of heavy rain, wind, and snow to central PA over the
next 24 to 48 hours.

Confidence in heavy rain potential remains high with storm
totals squarely in the 2-3" range across the flood watch area.
Locally higher amounts up to 4" remain possible especially in
the favored higher terrain of east-central PA where upslope lift
will be enhanced/maximized with southeast exposure.

QPF signal is consistent for heaviest rainfall to occur late
tonight into early Monday (~03-12Z) from south to north. Hires
guidance shows peak rain rates in the 0.5-0.75 in/hr range given
limited instability and distance from higher theta-E air. This
is still quite efficient for mid December and will pose the
greatest risk for rapid-onset type flooding.

As for gusty winds, although an anomalous low-level jet will
overrun eastern PA later this afternoon and evening, model
sounding profiles also show the existence of an inversion above
the boundary layer, which should prevent the strongest winds
from mixing to the surface, save for perhaps the highest
elevations.

Colder air wrapping into the backside of the storm behind a
blustery NW flow could begin to change rain to snow over the
Laurel ridges by the end of the period as we transition into the
next phase of the storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Winter weather in the Laurels and Alleghenies is the next
concern. Confidence is high (>80%) that accumulating snow will
develop within a multi-lake fetch from Erie and Huron coincident
with synoptic scale lift and wrap-around moisture. A potent,
reinforcing northern stream wave will dig through the Ohio
Valley and across CPA Monday night into Tuesday.

Multi-model/ensemble signal for potentially heavy lake enhanced
and upslope driven snow accums has increased this cycle (NBM
55-60% percent chance of >=6" along Laurel Mtn west of US219)
and we issued a winter storm watch for Somerset County in
coordination with PBZ. The strong gusty NW wind could enhance
winter/travel impacts with blowing snow and significantly
reduced visibility. There is also a growing potential for
convective snow showers and isolated squalls to develop and will
begin to message this within HWO and DSS briefings.

Peak wind gusts just below advisory category thresholds (35-45
mph) for the event should develop from later Monday into early
Tuesday as cold advection steepens lapse rates and improves
downward momentum transfer. This will continue to highlighted
in our HWO. The wind shift from southeast to northwest amidst
saturated soils could support an elevated risk of localized
power outages as trees sway and water logged limbs fall in the
blustery conditions.

Snow showers likely last through Tuesday morning before
diminishing as high pressure over the Plains shifts to the east
over WV Tuesday night.

Temps on Monday likely exhibit a non-diurnal trend with Tuesday
being the seasonably coldest day of the week with highs in the
upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Continuation of enhanced NW'ly flow in the wake of the sfc low
will promote lake-enhanced precipitation through Tuesday
morning. Plowable snowfall Monday night into Tuesday over the
NW and along the Laurel Highlands remains likely with the NW
flow providing enhanced fetch off lake Erie and a continuous
upslope flow along the Allegheny mountains. The limiting factor
will be the deep layer flow becoming more anticyclonic as this
will cut into the residence time for the increased moisture and
limit overall snow amounts. If given trends are maintained we'd
expect some additional winter headlines to be needed for the
Monday night- Tuesday timeframe.

High pressure will begin building to the south after Tuesday
morning and encourage a similar trend to what we have seen the
last couple weeks. A slight warming in temps towards the end of
the week and dry conditions expected until the next low pressure
system approaches from the west during the weekend.

Deterministic guidance does suggest a return of precipitation
towards the end of the extended period as a sfc low approaches
from the west. Timing and coverage remains uncertain at this
time, especially with the last couple runs not being consistent,
so we have capped PoPs at Chc/SChc for Friday night with higher
chances coming in closer to the Saturday morning timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low CIGS and Low Level Wind Shear will highlight the upcoming
12-16 hours of the TAFs as a potent surface low and strong low
level east to southeasterly flow progresses north along the
Atlantic Seaboard today and tonight.

The moist easterly flow at the surface being lifted across the
higher Terrain of Central and Eastern PA will create areas of
dense fog at elevations above 1600 ft MSL.

A widespread moderate to heavy rain event will impact the region
late this afternoon through early Monday with continued IFR to
LIFR.

Winds will shift to the NW late tonight into early Monday,
along with snow showers across the northern and western
mountains.

Snow showers are expected to linger into at least the first
part of Tuesday.

As high pressure builds eastward late Tuesday and early Wed,
expect the return to dry weather with VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread restrictive conditions. Rain is expected to
change to snow at KBFD and KJST, and taper off elsewhere.

Tue...Snow should persist at KBFD and KJST, with variable
conditions (VFR much of the time, but occasional restrictions in
flurries/snow showers) elsewhere.

Wed and Thu...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It has been 325 days since the last measurable snowfall
(>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This currently ranks as the 3rd longest
run on record. There is a low probability for measurable snow
Monday night into Tuesday; otherwise the longest run looks very
much in jeopardy based on the forecast into next weekend.

1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020
2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007
3. 325 days ending 12/16/2023

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 5 PM EST this afternoon through Monday
evening for PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for PAZ033.

Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ058.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...NPB/Bowen
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin
CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 10:44 AM EST, 3 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

PAZ019-025>027-034>036-045-181545-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of heavy rain late tonight could cause some isolated minor
flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph
could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high-
profile vehicles on Monday.

Rain will change to snow Monday night with a light accumulation
possible into Tuesday. Isolated heavy snow showers and squalls are
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-181545-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of moderate to heavy rain late tonight could cause some
localized minor flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph
could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high-
profile vehicles on Monday.

Rain will change to snow Monday afternoon with a light accumulation
likely impacting travel conditions Monday evening into Tuesday.
Isolated heavy snow showers and squalls are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ033-181545-
Somerset-
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of moderate to heavy rain late tonight could cause some
localized minor flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056-057-059-063>066-181545-
Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Rain will change to snow Monday night into Tuesday with a light
accumulation possible.

Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph
could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high-
profile vehicles on Monday. A few power outages are possible with
downed trees or limbs given preceding heavy rainfall and saturated
soil.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ058-181545-
Schuylkill-
1044 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Rain will change to snow Monday night into Tuesday with a light
accumulation possible.

Windy conditions with peak gusts from the northwest at 40 to 45 mph
could damage outdoor items and result in difficult driving for high-
profile vehicles on Monday. A few power outages are possible with
downed trees or limbs given preceding heavy rainfall and saturated
soil.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 17, 8:28 AM EST, 5 hours 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
828 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

PAZ057>059-064>066-171800-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
828 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

Locally dense fog is occurring across the region this morning, as
a result of moisture streaming in near the surface from the
Atlantic Coast and the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays.

Visibility will drop to under one quarter of a mile in some
locations, especially across the higher terrain.

Slow down and allow plenty of braking distance between you and the
vehicle ahead. Plan for extra time to reach your travel
destination.

Areas of low visibility from the fog will likely persist across
the higher terrain into this afternoon, but improve slowly
throughout the valleys.

Lambert

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 17, 3:22 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchCTPSomerset11 hr
Dec 17, 9:24 AM ESTDense Fog AdvisoryCTPSchuylkill7 hr
Dec 17, 2:20 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchCTPWarren15 hr
Dec 17, 2:20 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryCTPCambria, Clearfield, Elk, McKean, Warren44 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2023Every winter storm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.