Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through most of Central PA tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this
front, and some storms may contain gusty winds and heavy
downpours. However, the front will hang up just to the east of
the Susquehanna River. Additional storms are possible over
eastern PA on Friday. High pressure will build into
Pennsylvania this weekend, then pass off of the east coast next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Large bow echo/derecho ongoing, and really just entering the
CWA. It should cross most of the CWA by 2-3AM. But, it appears
that the storms will drag/slow along the MD border. The threat
for severe weather is mainly wind damage, but we've already had
some large hail over Warren County. Severe watch #528 goes for
quite a few hours based on confidence of the line/bow
continuing. NAM 18Z run does break up the line some, but CAPE
still fcst to be high enough over the central and SErn zones to
maintain the line. There should be some other showers will
return from the NW as the upper low nears, but these will be sct
and shouldn't be tall enough to make thunder. Temps drop as the
rain moves in and won't recover but rather stay steady thru the
rest of the night.

The progressive nature of this feature and pwats not too far
from normal suggest that flooding concerns should be isolated.
The wettest HREF members produce spot amounts in the 2-3 inch
range, which could result in flooding, especially if it were to
fall where FFG is lowest over portions the Middle Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a lull in activity early Friday, another round of
convection could accompany the passage of the surface cold front
over the eastern part of the CWA Friday afternoon. Cool temps
aloft could also support a few diurnally-driven showers across
the Allegheny Plateau.

Surface ridging and an associated low-pwat air mass is progged
to build into the region Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium range guidance continues to suggest a stretch of
relatively dry weather through next weekend in association with
an area of high pressure. Conditions will become more humid
into Monday as high pressure begins drifting eastwards off the
east coast. Scattered daytime convection will cover CPA on
Monday and Tuesday, with Chc PoPs during the afternoon and
evening hours before tapering off in the overnight/morning
hours. An area of high pressure south of PA will bring drier
conditions for Wednesday, with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions and light winds for most of the
day today and into the early evening. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely to overspread the region from the west this evening
in association with low pressure tracking across the Grt LKs.
The main uncertainties right now are on the timing of impacts.
Guidance suggests that storm mode will be mostly linear as it
moves across the state and reach out western sites near 00Z.
That line of thunderstorms will begin to approach eastern sites
by 06Z on Friday. Ceilings will drop to IFR/LIFR overnight and
fog will once again be possible in locations that see rain.

Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs/tsra impacts possible.

Sat...Slight chance of AM low cigs W Mtns.

Sun...Patchy AM valley fog possible NW Mtns.

Mon...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
LONG TERM...Dangelo/NPB
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
853 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

PAZ057>059-064>066-220100-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
853 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible later tonight.
Heavy rain and minor flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger on Friday, and may still be
capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-063-220100-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Cumberland-
853 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Heavy rain is possible and may lead to minor flooding along smaller
creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-220100-
Warren-
853 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
916 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NW Emporium           41.55N 78.28W
07/20/2023                   Cameron            PA   911 Call Center

            Trees across North Creek Rd.

&&

JRB

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