Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
744 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper low over central Canada will wobble south into the
Upper Great Lakes on Sunday. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will occur over the next several days, with some
heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Wildfire
smoke will make its return on Sunday and Monday as hazy, hot,
and humid weather sticks around until some relief arrives
behind a cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 pm update... We've gone ahead and hoisted a Flood Watch
until 4 am for areas generally south of I-80 and east of I-99.

As forced lift, via an approaching upper trough and increasing
diffluence aloft, increases this evening, the coverage of
showers and storms should increase. Observed trends and near-
term model guidance is in good agreement that most of the watch
area should see precipitable water values surge to 2"+, with
warm cloud depths of 3-4 km. Thus, any repeat development would
pose an excessive rain risk, particularly where heavy rain
occurred late this afternoon and/or in more urbanized
watersheds. One thing that may help us is elevated 1-3 hour FFG
values (2.5-3.5") over parts of the south-central mountains and
the Lower Susquehanna Valley. We'll certainly watch trends
closely this evening.

Previous discussion... Radar and satellite are fairly quiet as
of 2PM owing to the persistence of dense fog well into the
morning in the valleys of Central PA and a lack of much forcing
in the area. High clouds are beginning to stream in ahead of a
weather system that is currently producing showers and
thunderstorms across eastern KY, southeast OH, and western WV.
Instability in Pennsylvania is maximized in the southeast toward
Philadelphia where 3000+ J/kg of surface-based CAPE has
produced a few sub- severe storms.

High-resolution guidance continues to point to a lull in
convective activity for most of the day until better forcing
arrives from the west. A few showers/storms cannot be ruled out
this afternoon, but effective bulk shear around 30kt or less
should preclude much storm organization. With mostly sunny skies
expected to persist, high temperatures are on track to get into
the mid 80s to low 90s across the region with heat index values
topping out in the upper 90s in the south central mountains and
Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main cluster of storms should be infringing on the Laurel
Highlands and northwest mountains by 7 or 8PM and some
development is possible out ahead of the main batch of storms. PWAT
does reach 2" in the SE late today per latest HREF mean values,
where the risk of heavy rain is highest based on the latest
Slight Risk area drawn by WPC. Storm motions should be
generally W-E or slightly N of E and FFG is lowest in the
middle and upper Susq. Have decided not to issue a Flood Watch
as heaviest rainfall per latest HREF is over areas with
relatively higher flash flood guidance and the region of
expected heaviest rain has largely shifted east of the area.
Storm total rainfall should be generally less than 1 inch but
locally higher amounts of 2" or more are possible.

Storms - perhaps in multiple rounds - are expected to race
across Central PA this evening before eventually clustering
over the SE close to the old boundary and along the gradient of
1.75-2" PWAT which will be working northward. Forcing swings by
during the middle of the night, clearing out the west of any
showers/storms there in the evening, and eventually pushing most
of the the storms out of the Susq Valley and to the east of the
CWA before sunrise. SPC MRGL risk is drawn over most of the
area, mainly for wind, but a small risk of hail and tornadoes is
painted for the Alleghenies/NW as the shear will be better
there. It will likely be foggy again tonight, esp if clearing
becomes complete in areas (W). Lows will be the mildest in
awhile ranging from the mid 70s in the northwest to the mid 70s
in the southeast.

With the front parked across eastern PA on Sunday, gradual
improvement is expected from west to east after morning
fog/cloudiness. This boundary will also bring with it the return
of some wildfire smoke aloft from Alberta. Air quality should
not be affected on Sunday and the only impact will be some milky
skies and perhaps slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Smoke
will remain overhead into the start of next week with some air
quality impacts possible. The concentration of smoke will be
nowhere near what it was about a month ago when parts of the
northeast experienced record low air quality.

By Sunday afternoon, scattered showers and storms will
redevelop in the vicinity of the stalled front and the flooding
risk will continue. Spot amounts of >1 inch are possible on
Sunday, but the greatest threat will be for areas east and north
where WPC has drawn a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall from
NYC northward through New England. The risk in our area
maximizes as a Slight Risk along and east of the Susquehanna
Valley. Mostly sunny skies will build in from west to east by
Sunday evening as highs end up a bit cooler compared to Saturday
in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Unfortunately, dewpoints in the
60s to 70s won't make the relatively cooler temps feel all that
refreshing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will be more of the same with daily chances for
showers and storms, warm and humid conditions, and nightly
chances for fog. This pattern will continue to pose a threat for
isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall with any storms, but the
highest threat looks to remain east and northeast of our
forecast area.

The upper-level trough over the northeastern United States that
has been responsible for our unsettled pattern will begin to
retreat northward by midweek. However, by the end of the week,
another trough is progged to establish itself over the
northeastern part of the country.

At the surface, a weak area of high pressure will build into
the region on Wednesday, providing perhaps a very brief respite
from the unsettled weather along with slightly "cooler"
temperatures and more refreshing dewpoints. However, the chc of
SHRA/TSRA will return for Thursday.

An approaching cold front will generate showers and storms
again on Friday, before the frontal passage is expected to
usher in a slightly cooler and drier airmass as we head into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing this evening across
eastern portions of the area along with more showers and storms
moving in from the west. The best chance for heavy rainfall will
be at IPT, MDT, and LNS, though brief restrictions are possible
areawide.

Patchy fog development is possible once again tonight,
especially for the western airfields where skies will clear
just before daybreak Sunday. Storms on Sunday afternoon are
once again possible and should be primarily confined to the
eastern airfields.

Outlook...

Sun...Sct TSRA, mainly east.

Mon-Thu...Sct PM TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ026>028-035-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-045-056-063>065-161800-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Southern Clinton-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-York-
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible from
late this afternoon through tonight. Storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall and isolated flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain are
possible on Sunday. The rain may lead to flooding.

Heavy rain is again possible later Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ041-042-046-049>053-057>059-066-161800-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible from
late this afternoon through tonight. Heavy rain is expected from
some of the thunderstorms and may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain are
possible on Sunday. The rain may lead to flooding.

Heavy rain and isolated flooding is possible later Monday and Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-161800-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible from
late this afternoon through tonight. Storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall and isolated flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rain and isolated flooding is possible later Monday and Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
945 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

PAZ025>028-034>036-056-063-160230-
Perry PA-Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Blair PA-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
945 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...
HUNTINGDON...CENTRAL FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN...NORTHEASTERN
FULTON...SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA...EASTERN BLAIR...SOUTHWESTERN PERRY
AND NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

At 945 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hollidaysburg to near Chambersburg.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chambersburg, Huntingdon, Hollidaysburg, Shippensburg, St. Thomas,
Roaring Spring, Mount Union, Bald Eagle, New Enterprise, Martinsburg,
Claysburg, Scotland, Honey Grove, Williamsburg, Harrisonville,
Marion, Fort Loudon, Allensville, Waterfall and Rockhill Furnace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7819 4033 7730 3983 7769 4020 7856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 216DEG 25KT 4031 7835 4003 7771

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Banghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
946 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Biggertown              41.26N 76.50W
07/15/2023                   Lycoming           PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down in the Biggertown area.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

NPB