Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active northern branch of the jet stream will bring a few
bouts of showers and late afternoon thunderstorms to the region
today and again Tuesday.

Some of the thunderstorms today could contain localized damaging
wind gusts and heavy to potentially excessive rainfall, mainly
over portions of eastern Pennsylvania this late this afternoon
and evening.

Additional rounds of showers and t-storms are expected Tuesday
followed by mainly cloudy and cooler conditions for Wednesday.

Drier conditions with a rebound in temperatures back to near
normal will arrive later this week to close out the month of
June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface wave developing along the stationary boundary
across central PA is increasing moisture convergence and theta-e
ridging to the east.

Additional concerns this evening are in the middle Susquehanna
Valley and and a dual severe/heavy rain threat over far north
central PA focused along a previous outflow boundary from
earlier convection. Ground truth reports of 1.75"-2.00"
received over northern Warren county.

Further convection and heavy rain will pose a Flash Flood Risk
over some of our far eastern zones where localized 1.5-2.5 inch
rainfall amounts have already occurred.

A Flood Watch for potential Flash Flooding from training TSRA
runs through 03Z Tuesday, while Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391 is
in effect until 01Z Tuesday for all but the SW 3 counties in our
CWA.

For the overnight hours, falling heights ahead of the upper low
should result in lingering, scattered convection. It will be
another seasonably mild night with lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low is forecast to transition to an open wave and
slow as it moves across the lower Great Lakes on Day 2. Deep
southerly flow ahead of the trough will continue to support
ample moisture, with PWs remaining around 1.5 inches over the
eastern half of the area. Destabilization and mid-level energy
lifting along the leading edge of the trough are likely to
support the redevelopment of diurnal showers and storms which
may also produce some additional isolated heavy rain/flooding
concerns. Convection will fade into Tuesday night with the loss
of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated the grids, given the potential for more storms later
today.

Anyway, the upper level low over the central Great Lakes
moves out after the first part of Wednesday, bringing in
some dry weather for a brief time.

Temperatures will run close to normal a shade below.

Next system moves eastward for more showers and storms by next
weekend. Pattern will support wet weather at times, as long as
an upper level ridge remains over western Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue for the next few hours with
the potential for localized strong to severe wind gusts and some
hail as well. Brief IFR cigs and visibilities will remain likely
in any of the thunderstorms.

Low clouds will develop tonight and MVFR to IFR cigs are likely
for most of the area. Expect ceilings to remain MVFR or IFR
through most of the day tomorrow with more showers and
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue...Sctd-numerous shra/tsra, some may produce
severe wind gusts late Monday afternoon/evening. Brief
restrictions expected.

Wed-Fri...Isolated shra/tsra. Brief restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042-053-058-
059-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Bauco

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
807 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-280015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
807 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ042-053-058-059-066-280015-
Sullivan-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
807 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049>052-056-057-063>065-
280015-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
807 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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