Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active northern branch of the jet stream will bring a few
bouts of showers and late afternoon thunderstorms to the region
today and again Tuesday.

Some of the thunderstorms today could contain localized damaging
wind gusts and heavy to potentially excessive rainfall, mainly
over portions of eastern Pennsylvania this late this afternoon
and evening.

Additional rounds of showers and t-storms are expected Tuesday
followed by mainly cloudy and cooler conditions for Wednesday.

Drier conditions with a rebound in temperatures back to near
normal will arrive later this week to close out the month of
June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar mosaic loop and hires model guidance indicates
that we'll see further areal expansion and peak in intensity
late this afternoon/early this evening with a notable
concentration of new convection firing at the eastern edge of an
elevated mixed layer over the Central Mtns and Middle Susq
Valley. Additional convection and heavy rain will pose a Flash
Flood Risk over some of our far eastern zones where localized
1.5-2.5 inch rainfall amounts have already occurred.

A Flood Watch for potential Flash Flooding from training TSRA
runs through 03Z Tuesday, while Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391 is
in effect until 01Z Tuesday for all but the SW 3 counties in our
CWA.

Late afternoon temps will vary from the upper 70s to low 80s
across the high terrain of the north and west, to the mid and
upper 80s in the Susq Valley.

High pwats (around 1.75 inches) and instability should support
localized torrential downpours over the far eastern counties
late this afternoon through the evening hours.

Developing cold pools are likely to support generally progressive
storms (short line segments and even some transient
supercells), the environment is expected to generate intense
rainfall rates, which may produce isolated to scattered flash
flooding. While much of the area is still experiencing lower-end
D0-D2 drought conditions, rainfall over the past 7-14 days has
been above normal in several areas which has reduced 1hr FFG
values.

The 26/12Z HREF guidance continues to show a QPF max over
eastern PA with neighborhood probs and PMM values suggesting
localized 3+ inch amounts may be probable.

For the overnight hours, falling heights ahead of the upper low
should result in lingering, scattered convection. It will be
another seasonably mild night with lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low is forecast to transition to an open wave and
slow as it moves across the lower Great Lakes on Day 2. Deep
southerly flow ahead of the trough will continue to support
ample moisture, with PWs remaining around 1.5 inches over the
eastern half of the area. Destabilization and mid-level energy
lifting along the leading edge of the trough are likely to
support the redevelopment of diurnal showers and storms which
may also produce some additional isolated heavy rain/flooding
concerns. Convection will fade into Tuesday night with the loss
of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated the grids, given the potential for more storms later
today.

Anyway, the upper level low over the central Great Lakes
moves out after the first part of Wednesday, bringing in
some dry weather for a brief time.

Temperatures will run close to normal a shade below.

Next system moves eastward for more showers and storms by next
weekend. Pattern will support wet weather at times, as long as
an upper level ridge remains over western Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few additional rounds of showers and TSRA will be possible
late this afternoon/overnight ahead of a sub 1000 mb sfc low
over Saginaw Bay Mich, and a fairly vigorous upper trough across
the upper Glakes.

There is the potential for localized strong to severe wind
gusts and some hail as well, mainly for the eastern half of the
CWA (IPT, MDT, LNS). Although not included in the TAFs at this
point, specific vsby and cig restrictions may be included at
given airfields should confidence become high enough to time
their progression near/across the airfields.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue...Sctd-numerous shra/tsra, some may produce
severe wind gusts late Monday afternoon/evening. Brief
restrictions expected.

Wed-Fri...Isolated shra/tsra. Brief restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042-053-058-
059-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

PAZ017-024-033-271815-
Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ042-053-058-059-066-271815-
Sullivan-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049>052-056-
057-063>065-271815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-
York-
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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