Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
329 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become nearly stationary over Northern and
Western PA today into Sunday. Daily showers and thunderstorms
will form along and to the east of the front, with the bulk of
the convection occurring in the late afternoon and evening
hours. Temperatures will settle back close to normal for Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Storms developing along the Laurel Ridge counties and sliding
more north than east. Keeping an eye on training cells for
flooding issues. An FLS has been posted for Somerset county
where one hour FFG is just over an inch. Multiple cells have
moved over that area this morning into afternoon.

High res models have done a good job so far with the timing and
placement of the first shot of convection. Expect more cells to
develop over southeast PA. Storms over eastern MD should
continue to move north into our area through the evening hours.

Evening convection should fade overnight, as the boundary layer
cools/stabilizes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unstable cnonditions remain on Sunday as the upper features move
little The plume of deepest moisture is progged to slide east
of the area late Sunday night, causing showers to taper off.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lingering showers will continue Sunday night into the first half
of Monday behind a departing low pressure system in the
northeastern CONUS. As the showers taper off Monday afternoon,
a brief period of dry weather will settle in through much of
Tuesday before an upper-level trough begins influencing CPA.
This trough will bring daily rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through midweek.

High pressure begins to build to the west will bring drier
conditions into late next week, with temperatures remaining
near-average to slight cooler than average. Cooler temperatures
in the forecast is supported with model guidance that suggests
upper-level cooler Canadian air pushing into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA with isolated TSRA along the Alleghenies are moving mainly
across a north-south axis in between JST/BFD and UNV/AOO, with
some impacts possible into the outer ranges of airfield. Showers
and storms are expected to become widespread across the
airspace as the afternoon progresses and persist into the
evening hours.

Restrictions overnight are mainly anticipated across airfields
in closer proximity to the Allegheny Front, with IFR and below
cigs/vsby expected at BFD/JST/UNV with less confidence at
AOO/IPT. The Lower Susquehanna also has potential for some
restrictions, but confidence remains too low to take
restrictions below MVFR. Any fog/low stratus formation will lift
after sunrise tomorrow, with showers/storms possible again
throughout Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers
and storms. Patchy fog to start both days.

Tue...AM patchy fog. Otherwise mainly dry with VFR conditions.
Showers could return Tuesday night.

Wed...VFR with periods of IFR in SHRA/TSRA and areas of morning
fog.

Thurs...Mainly VFR outside of morning fog. Scattered SHRA
possible across the northern airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Tyburski
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...NPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
438 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

PAZ004-100845-
Warren-
438 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-056-063-064-100845-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-
438 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will affect most of the area this afternoon or evening.
Some of the storms could become strong enough to produce damaging
wind gusts or flooding rain in a few isolated locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-100845-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-
Lancaster-
438 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will affect most of the area this afternoon or evening.
Some of the storms could become strong enough to produce damaging
wind gusts or flooding rain in a few isolated locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms could produce isolated flooding
on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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