Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1249 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front will approach from the Great Lakes and
stall out over PA until Sunday. Daily showers and thunderstorms
will form along and east of the front, with most happening in
the afternoons and early evenings. Temperatures will get back
close to normal by Sunday or Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough aloft interacts with a slow moving cold
front, heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop first across
Laurels and central mtns, then shifting eastward with the best
dynamics and instability into the Susq Valley for the late
afternoon and evening. SPC recently issued a MCD indicating
that a severe thunderstorm watch is likely. The main threat will
be wind damage with isolated wet microbursts possible. The
temps are pretty warm for svr hail to occur, but a quarter sized
chunk or two is possible, esp if a supercell develops. MLCAPE
of 2000-3000 was recently analyzed over the Susq Valley, where
temps are in the 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. With ample
moisture at low levels, training/repeat cells could lead to
precip that approaches FFG (mainly across the NE where FFG is
lower than the dry SErn cos).

Heat index values will take a run at 100 again today in the
Lower Susq. The dewpoints will be a little higher in the aftn
than the last few days, though - keeping near 70 for the ern
half of the CWA. That is what helps the HI get into the m-u90s
today. No plans for a heat advy today, as prev shifts have set
the table well, and no large changes to the fcst temps/dews
keeps us just a hair under the threshold.

Convection will move east and diminish after 8pm. Temps only
dip into the 60s again, as dewpoints remain high. The NW could
have some clearing early, but a deck of low clouds wraps around
the main low and into the NW by midnight. Some breaks should be
had for the rest of the area overnight, but total clearing is
not expected. Some fog is still expected, since there will be
many areas that receive rainfall before midnight and the wind
will be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The light wrly wind over the west will help dry things out
slowly there, but so slowly that there will still be a few SHRA
on Fri. The forcing looks very meager and triggers are not
obvious at this point for TSRA on Fri. But, enough heat and any
very minor cooler air moving in aloft should allow for
destabilization and cause storms to form. Most of these will be
east of the Allegheny Front again. Since they will be moving
over the same places that received precip on Thurs, there is a
small chc for the rain rates to exceed the updated FFG. Maxes on
Fri will be impacted/lowered vs Thurs due to more cloud cover
and just a tiny 1-2C dip in 8H temps. The SE should have the
least cloud cover. Keeping with the going maxes which have been
holding steady for the last few days/cycles - m70s NW and u80s
SE. Again, no need for heat advy for Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level trough pattern will be sticking around through
the beginning of next week and continue through the extended
period. High pressure off the east coast and ridging within the
High Plains and Four Corners region will allow for repeated
500mb trough axis to swing across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley before reaching the Mid-Atlantic region.

Given that the upper-level pattern is likely to remain in place
for much of next week, we can expect this to bring daily rounds
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This is supported by
ensemble guidance showing agreement with the progressive
pattern. Tuesday of next week is the only day with a break from
the rain as the initial trough lifts towards the north east,
and the next trough sets up to the west.

Temperatures in the extended period are progged to be much
cooler than the hot summer like temperatures we experienced this
week. With the upper-level flow of cooler Canadian air pushing
into the region, our temps will be near seasonal to slightly
below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early morning fog with localized vsby restrictions will burn off
by 13-14Z. Showers and thunderstorms over western PA this
morning will move into the airspace and strengthen during the
afternoon and evening hours. Storms will weaken/diminish by
around midnight. Strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with
some storms.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon...Scattered showers and storms. Patchy fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gartner/Travis
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-080815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-063-064-
080815-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible
this afternoon through the first half of the night. Brief heavy rain
from thunderstorms may lead to minor flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening. Heavy rain from thunderstorms may lead to flooding issues
on Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ057>059-065-066-080815-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
413 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible
this afternoon through the first half of the night. Brief heavy rain
from thunderstorms may lead to minor flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain from thunderstorms may lead
to flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

PAZ034-035-071600-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1120 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1119 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cumberland, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Inglesmith and Barnes Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7865 3992 7846 3979 7818 3972 7828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 220DEG 21KT 3966 7856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bauco/Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

PAZ034-035-071645-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
1201 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BEDFORD AND CENTRAL
FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bedford to 12 miles southwest of
Breezewood. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Breezewood, Clearville, Everett, Crystal Springs, Wells Tannery,
Valley-Hi, Saluvia, Locust Grove, Saxton, Defiance and Hopewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 7844 4028 7825 4023 7824 4015 7810
      3988 7809 3976 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 220DEG 23KT 4010 7836 3984 7834

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Colbert/Bauco