Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
151 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong to severe storms targets central
Pennsylvania this afternoon into tonight. Another brief break
in the weather is expected Sunday before more showers and
storms arrive later Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Storms beginning to take shape across the area with tornado
watch now in place for locations north of the turnpike. Main
focus remains next round of strong to severe convection for
later today. SLGT risk upgraded to ENH for most of northern and
central PA as a few lines TSRA are expected to cross the Western
and Central Mtns late Sat afternoon and evening. Latest 00Z
model 0-1 KM EHIs indicate a rather high potential for rotating
updrafts and even a few weak tornadoes across the NE quadrant of
our CWA with values in the 2-3.5 M2/S2 range. Heavy rain/flash
flooding is not a major concern at this point. Main threats are
for localized strong/damaging wet microbursts from mini
bows/bkn-s signatures in line segments, triggered by descending
rear inflow jets, with an isolated tornado possible (5%)

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Strong storms last through mid to late evening as cold front
doesn't push through the NW Mountains until late tonight.
Showers and isold storms will accompany the front overnight
before moving out by early morning Sunday, with a more
comfortable air mass arriving.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Relatively dry air associated with the frontal passage on
Saturday will allow for a brief period of clearing across much
of central PA for Sunday morning into Monday AM. Seasonable
temperatures are expected to carry throughout this brief period,
with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 70s across
the northern tier and upper 80s across southern zones.

Surface low pressure will track west of PA through the eastern
Great Lakes Monday PM into Tuesday AM. The severe
threat continues to be dependent on destabilization, where the
highest possibility remains in the warm sector of the
approaching frontal boundary. The progression of this surface
low is the biggest uncertainty at this time, as recent guidance
has suggested that movement will become generally slower just
north of the PA/NY border.

Slower progression has potential to bring heavier rainfall
across all of CPA, especially across southern tier where
anomalously high pwats are coupled with the best forcing.
Heavier rainfall on Monday has already been tagged in the WPC
ERO with a Slight (2/4) risk across the southern tier where
aforementioned forcing and moisture is expected to be the most
impactful while the rest of CPA has been tagged with a Marginal
(1/4) for flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to taper off Wednesday into Thursday
evening as an anomalously strong ridge builds over the area
before a shortwave trough brings PoPs back up into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tornado watch covers all airfields except KMDT and KLNS. SHRA
and TSRA will develop across the CWA through the afternoon and
evening. Being isolated at this point, just added VCTS to any
one site as any one storm would affect an airfield for a short
time.

Expect the activity to wind down after 00Z with just some
lingering -SHRA. Some MVFR is possible overnight in BR...more
toward sunrise.

Outlook...

Sun...Generally VFR conditions outside of spotty lingering
-SHRA.

Mon...Predominantly VFR, with scattered SHRA/TSRA developing
late across the S/W and overspreading the remainder of the area
Monday night.

Tue...Lingering -SHRA poss, mainly N/W.

Wed...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Martin
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
407 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-130815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
407 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday afternoon and
evening, some of which may produce strong to locally damaging winds,
hail and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two will
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

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