Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Key Messages:

- Minor Coastal Flooding and Moderate Risk of Rip Currents
  Tonight

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Late Tonight

- Wind Advisory in Effect Friday Morning

- Gale Warning in Effect for Marine Zones Friday

A powerful longwave trough extending from Central Canada southward
into West Texas is expected to eject a strong cold front into our
region tonight. Ahead of it, a 30-40 knot LLJ has brought breezy to
windy surface conditions, with gusts to around 35 knots ongoing
across southern portions of the Coastal Bend. Tonight, winds are
expected to decrease briefly as the front approaches the area, but a
strong to very strong offshore flow will develop behind it. A Wind
Advisory is now in effect beginning at 09Z and continuing through
14Z Friday morning. Beside from the wind hazards, the main concerns
for the overnight period is the potential for some isolated severe
thunderstorms. The combination of energy associated to the
aforementioned through, strong convergence along the boundary, a
weak to moderately unstable airmass and plentiful moisture will
provide the setting for scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms to develop. However, a stout cap may
inhibit the severe weather potential. The highest rain chances
can be expected over the eastern half of the CWA between 08-14Z as
the front moves across. SPC has the northern half of the CWA
under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms heading into the
overnight period.

Aside from all of this, coastal hazards remain in effect through
this evening, with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect along with a
High risk of rip currents. The minor coastal flood threat should
end tonight due to the strong offshore flow developing, but a
Moderate risk of rip currents will be in place through the
overnight hours owing to very long swell periods.

The thunderstorm potential for tonight will decrease during the
morning hours on Friday, but showers will remain possible through
early afternoon. Drier air will filter behind the front, but
moisture will increase again Friday night, with rain chances
returning to the forecast.

Temperatures tonight will depend on how fast that front is able to
slide through the region, but in general, expect lows to range
from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast and over
western areas. Highs on Friday will struggle to get out of the 50s
and 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Key Messages:

 - Good rain chances this weekend into Monday

 - Well below normal temperatures this weekend into Monday

Cold air mass in place behind the front Saturday will be reinforced
by another surge of high pressure Saturday night into Sunday. A
broad upper trough will extend southwest into northwestern Mexico
over the weekend with a series of short wave troughs moving out of
Mexico into south Texas. This will lead to a period of scattered
showers moving across the region. The upper trough will swing
through south Texas on Monday keeping a chance of showers in the
forecast. Rain chances will diminish to slight chance on Tuesday as
the upper trough moves to the east. Onshore flow will develop on
Tuesday with temperatures warming up to slightly below normal
levels. Onshore flow could lead to a period of sea fog Tuesday night
as warm moist air returns to the region. Temperatures warm back to
above normal levels Thursday ahead of the next upper trough that
will move into the southern high plains. Isolated to scattered
streamer showers will be possible over the coastal plains
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Conditions will deteriorate through the night as a cold front
moves through the region. The front will move through COT/LRD/VCT
by 07/08Z and ALI/CRP by 09Z. MVFR ceilings will settle in across
all terminals and persist through the mid to late morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the boundary moves
through with isolated activity lingering through mid morning in
the wake of the front. Continued with TEMPOs for the heaviest
activity with IFR ceilings and gusty winds. Strong northerly winds
are expected area wide through the early afternoon with gusts
near 35-40 knots possible. Winds will gradually weaken through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

A strong southerly flow continues tonight. A few gusts to gale
force will be possible through early this evening. The winds will
decrease briefly late tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The
cold front will move across the coastal waters early Friday
morning bringing very strong offshore flow with gusts to gale
force. A Gale Warning is in effect from Friday morning through
Friday evening for all marine zones. Scattered to numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms can be expected late tonight into
Friday morning as the cold front moves through the area. Rain
chances will diminish late in the day. Winds will decrease
slightly Friday night, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will
remain possible. Strong north-northeast winds will maintain SCA
conditions over the Gulf waters through the weekend. Wind gusts to
gale force will be possible at times through the weekend.
Northeast winds will decrease to moderate to strong/SCA Sunday
night and become moderate/SCEC Monday. But seas will remain
elevated to SCA levels over the Gulf waters through Monday. Winds
will turn east Monday night and southeast on Tuesday. Periods of
scattered showers will occur through the weekend into early next
week. A moderate to strong southeast flow will continue from
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    61  46  53  45 /  50  20  40  50
Victoria          56  43  51  41 /  50  20  40  20
Laredo            65  45  51  42 /  20  30  40  60
Alice             61  42  52  40 /  40  20  40  50
Rockport          61  46  54  45 /  50  20  30  40
Cotulla           64  44  49  40 /  20  40  60  50
Kingsville        64  45  52  43 /  40  20  30  50
Navy Corpus       63  50  55  50 /  50  20  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>347-442-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for
     TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255-270-275.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ231-232-236-237.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TC/95

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
427 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-172130-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
427 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a High risk for rip currents through this evening, followed
by a Moderate risk overnight.

Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning through
late tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms possible ahead and along the boundary
tonight. Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tonight across the
northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Bend and the Victoria
Crossroads. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat.
Frequent lightning will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday morning.

Wind Advisory may be needed across portions of South Texas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-172130-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
427 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms possible late tonight. Some storms may be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Frequent
lightning will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday.

A Gale Warning is in effect from Friday morning through the evening
across the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected from Friday night through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

ANM/TMT

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