Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire area until 2
PM. Mesoscale convective system developing to the northwest is
expected to surge southeast through the region this morning. Did
adjust high temperatures up slightly as cold front a little slow
to move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Key Messages:

- Severe storms mainly this morning with damaging winds and hail
  expected

- Locally heavy rainfall possible mainly this morning

- Minor coastal flooding today and possible again Monday

- High risk of rip currents today through Monday

Convection has increased in coverage in region between Del Rio and
Eagle Pass ahead of the cold front pushing southward out of the
Hill Country early this morning. Axis of strong instability with
MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg extends southeast from the Rio Grande
plains toward the Middle and Lower Texas coast. Hi-res models are
in agreement this developing mesoscale convective complex will
surge southeast ahead of the cold front during the morning hours.
Appears the threat for damaging winds will be higher with this
system mainly during the morning hours, but hail will also be
possible. With the amount of low level shear, the threat for
tornadoes is there as well. With the amount of moisture in place,
locally heavy rainfall is still possible but the threat for
excessive rainfall will be mainly this morning. High rain rates
will cause drainage problems for urban areas.

Expect lingering showers with possibly embedded storms to be
possible from this afternoon through tonight behind the cold
front. Adequate moisture will remain over the region with weak
isentropic lift to keep the chance for showers in the forecast
for Monday.

A strong easterly flow will lead to an increase in swells today.
Tide levels are already increasing and running about 1 foot above
expected at this time. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for
the islands until 21Z today. With the long period swells and east
winds today and northeast winds tonight and Monday, there will be
a High risk of rip currents today through Monday for Gulf-facing
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

The NAM/ECMWF predict an upper level disturbance to move EWD across
the CWA Tuesday, and the ECMWF/GFS predict another upper system
to move across the region from the northwest Wednesday night/
Thursday. Expect the combination of upper forcing associated
with the first system, sufficient moisture, and instability, to
contribute to isolated/scattered convection, mainly over the Coastal
Plains (limited CAPE/significant CIN over the western CWA per the
GFS deterministic run) Tuesday. The combination of the next upper
system, the corresponding frontal boundary, and sufficient moisture
may result in isolated/scattered convection Wednesday night/early
Thursday (Although the GFS predicts significant CIN in advance of
the front which may limit convection, this NWP model predicts
significant elevated instability which can combine with upper
forcing to generate at least elevated convection.) Drier Thursday
night/Friday. The GFS/ECWMF predict a third upper system/associated
frontal boundary to provide upper/surface forcing to the CWA Friday
night/Saturday. The GFS/ECMWF predict sufficient moisture in advance
of the front. However, the GFS predicts thermodynamic profiles
unfavorable for convection, with a moderate/strong CIN (surface-
based parcels not likely to reach their LFC) and limited
instability aloft (decreased risk for elevated convection).
Thus, will forecast mostly cloudy skies for Saturday owing to
moisture convergence along the front, yet will not introduce
precipitation (the NBM adds credence with PoPs of less than 10
percent over the CWA.) P-ETSS suggests that water levels may reach
coastal flooding Tuesday, yet not Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

MVFR ceilings are prevalent over most of the region early this
morning. Isolated convection has formed over the Victoria
Crossroads at this time. Storms over the northern Rio Grande
plains ahead of the cold front is expected to increase and expand
as they move to the southeast into an unstable air mass. Expect
storms into the Brush Country 12-14Z and the coastal plains
between 14Z-18Z. Ceilings will fall to IFR as storms move through
the region. MVFR to IFR vsbys along with strong to severe wind
gusts expected to occur as the convective complex surges toward
the coast during the morning hours. Hail will be possible with the
stronger storms. Showers will continue behind convective complex
and front into the mid afternoon hours over the coastal plains
with generally MVFR ceilings continuing through this evening.
Will show IFR ceilings south to MVFR ceilings north from late this
evening during the overnight period behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

A strong easterly flow will occur this morning then shift to the
northeast during the afternoon behind a cold front. SCA is in
effect for the Gulf waters until 10Z Monday. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move into the coastal waters later
this morning. Storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts and hail. The moderate to strong northeast flow will
continue through the night into Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms anticipated for Monday
night/Tuesday, in response to an upper level disturbance. Another
upper system/associated frontal boundary may generate
isolated/scattered convection again Wednesday night/Thursday. Drier
Thursday night/Friday. A third upper system/associated frontal
boundary is predicted to enter the region by Saturday. However,
unfavorable thermodynamics (GFS deterministic) may preclude
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  61  74  67 /  90  30  30  20
Victoria          71  56  69  63 /  80  30  20  20
Laredo            75  57  72  65 /  90  30  30  20
Alice             73  59  70  64 /  90  30  30  20
Rockport          75  63  72  69 /  90  30  30  20
Cotulla           71  56  71  64 /  90  30  20  30
Kingsville        74  60  70  65 /  90  30  30  20
Navy Corpus       77  65  72  71 /  90  40  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...TMT/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
459 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-241200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
459 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of south Texas until
early this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are expected for south
Texas mainly this morning. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats but an isolated tornado could occur.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible this morning. High rain rates
could lead to flooding of urban areas.

There is a HIGH risk of rip currents tonight for the Gulf facing
beaches.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 4 PM this afternoon for
the islands of the Middle Texas coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a HIGH risk of rip currents Monday along the Gulf-facing
beaches of the Middle Texas Coast.

Minor coastal flooding is possible Monday during times of high tide.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday night and
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-241200-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
459 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the bays and near shore
waters of the Middle Texas coast until 2 PM today. Thunderstorms are
expected to move through the coastal waters late this morning into
early afternoon. The storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts and large hail. Waterspouts will be possible as well.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Monday.

TMT/WC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
907 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ230>232-231445-
Live Oak TX-McMullen TX-Bee TX-
907 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central
McMullen, Live Oak and southwestern Bee Counties through 945 AM
CDT...

At 906 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near George West to 6 miles southwest of River
Creek Acres to near Annarose. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
George West, Three Rivers, Argenta, Karon, Mount Lucas, Oakville,
River Creek Acres, Simmons, Dinero, Clegg and Tynan.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 40 and 67.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 622 and 646.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 700 and 744.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2841 9780 2817 9775 2817 9778 2818 9782
      2815 9785 2806 9834 2820 9836 2842 9834
      2852 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 241DEG 26KT 2839 9813 2825 9813 2811 9820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

ADAMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
917 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ234-247-347-231445-
Coastal Calhoun TX-Inland Calhoun TX-Victoria TX-
917 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Calhoun
and southeastern Victoria Counties through 945 AM CDT...

At 917 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Placedo, or 12 miles west of Port Lavaca, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Placedo and Bloomington.

This includes US Highway 87 between mile markers 824 and 832.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
south central and south Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 9690 2865 9693 2878 9670 2871 9665
      2870 9667 2867 9664 2867 9663 2866 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 241DEG 20KT 2866 9682

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ADAMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>