Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Key Messages:

- Chances for rain hang around for one more day

_ Marginal Risk for flash flooding today

The mid  to upper level low over northern Mexico will continue to
push eastward today, with the closed low in the 500 mb level
expected to become an open wave by this afternoon draped over the
Coastal Bend. With the CWA still on the divergent side of the upper-
level low/trough and PWATs remaining elevated around 1.7-1.8", will
maintain rain chances in the forecast (40-60%) this afternoon into
this evening. With most of the region expected to be on the
convergent side of the trough tonight, am expecting a drier night
with only minimal PoPs. Despite being on the convergent side of the
trough tomorrow, the GFS is showing a shortwave rotating around the
base of the trough, and therefore, kept a slight chance for some
showers tomorrow (15-20%), mainly from the Coastal Plains through
the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Despite expecting
any showers or storms to be scattered in nature along with QPF
values generally under an inch, soils remain saturated due to
previous rainfall and therefore any thunderstorm could lead to flash
flooding. Thus, the Weather Prediction Center has kept us under a
Marginal Risk (at least 5% of exceeding flash flood guidance) for
flash flooding through today.

With any storms expected to be scattered in nature, expect to see
more sunshine today and thus, result in a slightly warmer day than
yesterday. With less cloud cover expected tomorrow, temperatures are
expected to climb back into the lower 90s across the Brush Country
and Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows tonight will remain mild with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the majority of the
long term period as a 588 dam ridge at 500 hPa builds over South
Texas. This will contribute to temperatures climbing into the 90s
Thursday through Saturday. There is a low chance that the
combination of heat and humidity will result in heat indices over
105 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Additionally, there will be at
least a low chance for coastal flooding during high tide Friday and
Saturday due to the increasing astronomical tides associated with
the new moon.

A 20-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms will return by
Saturday and continue into next week as cyclonic vorticity advection
associated with speed shear in the sub tropical jet and an ejecting
500 hPa cutoff low will help to break down the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this TAF cycle
with light winds. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
enter South Texas and could impact ALI and CRP during the next
couple of hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue developing throughout the afternoon and into this
evening, with rain chances beginning to taper off after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Light and variable winds are expected today through tomorrow.
Showers across the local waters this morning are expected to
increase in coverage this afternoon with the likelihood of
developing into thunderstorms. Rain chances are expected to begin to
tapper off tonight with only a slight chance of showers tomorrow. Winds
around 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet are expected
through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  69  86  68 /  50  20  20   0
Victoria          83  68  86  65 /  50  30  10   0
Laredo            87  70  91  72 /  40  30  10   0
Alice             84  67  88  66 /  50  30  20   0
Rockport          84  72  86  72 /  50  20  20   0
Cotulla           87  70  92  70 /  40  30  10   0
Kingsville        85  68  88  67 /  50  20  20   0
Navy Corpus       83  73  85  73 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....TWH
AVIATION...JCP/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
410 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-170915-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
410 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Marginal Risk of flash flooding today.

Scattered thunderstorms expected across South Texas.

Moderate river flooding will continue along the Guadalupe River for
the next few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-170915-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
410 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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