Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east across the Lower Great Lakes through
early this week. A cold front will then move east across the Great
Lakes on Tuesday followed by high pressure by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Minor POP edits with the ongoing convection. A secondary line is
trying to form in and around Cleveland with the apparent
occluded front moving west to east, and where some MLCAPE still
exists along with surface moisture pooling. Do not expect too
much organization with 0-6km bulk shear around 20kts.

Previous Discussion...
Active weather is expected through the near term period with periods
of showers and thunderstorms, some perhaps strong to severe.

For the rest of today, still tracking a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms across east-central OH this afternoon. This cluster
should stay sub-severe for the most part as it continues northeast
into NE OH and NW PA over the next several hours, although can't
rule out isolated 60 mph wind gusts with the strongest cells. As
this complex moves closer towards the lake, a brief tornado threat
appears possible, especially between 5 and 7 PM, as 0-1km SRH values
increase to around 100 m2/s2. Apart from this cluster, much of the
rest of the area remains relatively dry, as mid-level dry air is
inhibiting much in the way of convective initiation. This is
especially evident in neutral to slightly positive stability indices
via the GOES-derived LI product, especially along and west of the I-
71 corridor.

Overall, the weather should remain relatively quiet tonight as the
afternoon/evening activity exits north and northeast of the area.
Next we'll turn our attention to a more potent upper-level trough
traversing east across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys tonight
into Monday. Along the northern side of this upper jet, a convective
cluster is expected to develop across central and southern IL later
this evening and overnight, moving east into the OH Valley by late
tonight into Monday morning. Confidence remains low on the eastward
(and northern) extent and intensity of this complex as it reaches
our area. By Monday afternoon, additional redevelopment is
anticipated ahead of the trough axis, although the timing and
location of thunderstorm initiation appears generally unfavorable
for a widespread severe threat across northern and NE OH/NW PA. This
is mainly a result of the jet energy quickly spreading east into
PA/WV by early to mid-afternoon on Monday. However, there may be a
marginal severe threat along the cold front itself as it swings west
to east across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence is
just simply lower given the weaker dynamics vs further east. Heavy
to torrential rainfall is also likely to accompany thunderstorms,
although not anticipating too many concerns with regards to flooding.

By Monday night, a residual trough axis/TROWAL will swing behind the
exiting low pressure system, providing additional lift and moisture
across NE OH and NW PA. A relatively cool air mass will arrive,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures ranging between 10 to 12
degrees C, will aid in rain coverage across the region Monday night
into Tuesday. An additional half inch to an inch of rain is possible
with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Tuesday morning the upper level trough and compact surface low
will be over the eastern Great Lakes. Models have trended a little
faster in wrapping dry air in behind this system so have lowered or
removed pops from some areas with a lesser chance of showers
lingering in the east. The cold pool of air behind the front is
forecast to be east of the area by 18Z so post frontal
temperatures west of I-77 will be similar or warmer than
Monday's highs. Northwest winds will be breezy with gusts of
20-25 mph in the east and closer to 30 mph along the northeast
lakeshore.

Brief ridging, both at the surface and aloft will build overhead on
Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies and a dry forecast. Warm
advection does increase with southwest flow on the back of the high
and temperatures warming into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will increase Wednesday night ahead of a fast moving
shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley. Moisture advection ramps
up quickly overnight with scattered showers reaching NW Ohio after
midnight and lingering across eastern portions of the area into
Thursday. Clouds and showers for a portion of the day will limit
high temperatures to the 70s across portions of eastern Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania.

This shortwave quickly shifts off the East Coast Thursday night with
another window of surface ridging for the first part of Friday. A
stronger piece of energy is forecast to move through the northwest
flow and carve out a trough across the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Surface low pressure will slide east from Wisconsin
to the eastern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Not entirely
clear at this point if the warm front will be active with
thunderstorms overhead or to our north later Friday but strong
forcing will likely result in additional chances of
thunderstorms along the cold front over the weekend. Best timing
of the cold front is somewhat uncertain at this time so kept
high temperatures near 80 degrees through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with the
exception of some MVFR ceilings at TOL/FDY. The best chance of
any thunder impacting TAF sites through this afternoon will be
at CAK/YNG and perhaps ERI where a cluster of thunderstorms
across east- central OH should move northeast over the next
several hours. Otherwise, have removed thunder mention generally
along and west of the I-71 corridor (MFD/FDY/TOL). Ceilings will
remain MVFR across NW OH through the TAF period, briefly dipping
into IFR at times overnight. Confidence remains low on
convective evolution for Monday morning so have just added a
vcsh mention for now at most TAF sites. At CLE, have added a
vcts mention since showers and thunderstorms are possible by
mid to late Monday afternoon.

Winds are generally out of the south to southeast early this
afternoon, 7 to 12 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots.
Winds will gradually shift towards the south to south-southwest
this evening and overnight, 5 to 10 knots. Winds may begin to
shift more towards the west towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Monday night into Tuesday in low
ceilings. Non-VFR may return on Thursday in scattered to perhaps
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR is also possible
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds of 15-20 knots will veer to south/southwest as low
pressure passes north of the lake this evening. Another area of low
pressure will track northeast across Lake Erie late Monday, pulling
a cold front east across the lake behind it. Waves will
occasionally be in the 2 to 4 foot range in the open waters
tonight into Monday, then reaching 3 to 5 feet east of the
Islands with onshore flow behind the front on Tuesday. A Small
Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk will likely be needed on
Tuesday. Will also need to monitor for the potential for
waterspouts on Tuesday morning.

A weak ridge will build east across the lake on Wednesday. Another
disturbance will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday with
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger low
pressure system is forecast to move northeast through the Central
Great Lakes Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-071945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
344 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and
overnight. Some of these storms could reach severe limits with the
primary hazard being strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely MOnday
afternoon and evening, especially along and east of the I-71
corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe limits with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

OHZ021-022-062000-
Summit OH-Portage OH-
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Portage and
eastern Summit Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Akron, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Barberton, Hudson, Twinsburg,
Tallmadge, Streetsboro, Macedonia, Mogadore, Mantua, Stow, Aurora,
Brimfield, Munroe Falls, Lakemore, Silver Lake, Boston Heights and
Peninsula.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 8158 4133 8150 4127 8118 4098 8134
      4098 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 209DEG 24KT 4106 8150

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

OHZ011-013-021>023-033-062030-
Summit OH-Geauga OH-Portage OH-Mahoning OH-Trumbull OH-Cuyahoga OH-
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Portage,
Trumbull, north central Mahoning, Geauga, east central Cuyahoga and
northeastern Summit Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Twinsburg to near Lordstown. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Chardon, Solon, Hudson, Niles, Twinsburg, Streetsboro,
Macedonia, Cortland, Newton Falls, South Russell, Lordstown,
Middlefield, Garrettsville, North Bloomfield, Burton, Mantua, West
Farmington, Vienna Center and Leavittsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 8078 4127 8151 4157 8141 4158 8129
      4152 8101 4150 8100 4150 8093 4132 8051
      4128 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 207DEG 26KT 4130 8146 4111 8083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
430 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

OHZ012>014-023-062100-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
430 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Trumbull, Geauga, southeastern Lake and southwestern Ashtabula
Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Chesterland to near Middlefield. Movement
was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Painesville, Chardon, Fairport Harbor, Mentor, Middlefield, North
Bloomfield, Orwell, Burton, West Farmington, Chesterland, Willoughby
Hills, Kirtland, Huntsburg, Claridon, Gates Mills, Montville,
Hartsgrove, Roaming Shores, Cherry Valley and Hunting Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 8064 4138 8088 4141 8104 4142 8104
      4142 8105 4149 8139 4157 8140 4175 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 213DEG 24KT 4148 8131 4143 8102

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
602 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Fairport Harbor   41.76N 81.28W
08/06/2023  M45 MPH          LEZ147             OH   C-Man Station

            Observation taken at site FAIO1.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
639 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

OHZ010-011-020-062315-
Medina OH-Lorain OH-Cuyahoga OH-
639 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Medina,
southwestern Cuyahoga and northeastern Lorain Counties through 715 PM
EDT...

At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Avon Lake to Grafton. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Parma, Lakewood, Strongsville, Brunswick, Westlake, North
Royalton, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Grafton, North Olmsted, Avon,
Parma Heights, Rocky River, Broadview Heights, Brook Park, Berea,
Fairview Park, Middleburg Heights and Bay Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 8168 4128 8168 4119 8205 4152 8201
      4149 8195 4148 8186 4150 8180 4149 8176
      4150 8172 4149 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 230DEG 16KT 4151 8196 4129 8201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>