Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of the area tonight. A cold front will
stall to the northwest on Sunday, before moving across the local
area Monday evening into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will continue to track east/northeast across the area
this afternoon and into this evening as a trough pushes east
across the region. Convection is struggling to develop west of
I-71 thanks to widespread cloud cover/precipitation and low
instability, but starting to see convection trying to develop
east of I-71 where there's better (but still marginal)
instability. At this point, today's best chance of thunder will
lie in the eastern half of the area. Latest forecast soundings
indicate that the environment will be primed for locally heavy
rain and perhaps localized flooding in urban and low-lying
areas. The severe threat is somewhat limited, but instability
and higher shear may be sufficient for isolated damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a low-end tornado threat this evening.

Expect precip to move into NW PA by early evening with most
shower activity exiting to the east near or shortly after
midnight tonight. Scattered light showers may persist across the
eastern half of the CWA through early Sunday morning and
a few showers may develop during peak diurnal heating, but
precip chances are low. Smoke from upstream Canadian wildfires
will likely result in smoke pushing across the area during the
day Sunday, so introduced haze to the forecast with this update.
PoPs start to increase from the northwest as a cold front
advances east towards the local area Sunday night.

Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s with upper 60s possible
along the lakeshore. On Sunday, highs will climb into the low to
mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s making it feel a
bit muggy. Sunday night's lows will fall into the lower 60s with
mid 60s along the warm lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will return for Monday as a potent upper trough
pivots east across the Great Lakes, extending a cold front southeast
through the region late in the day.

There will be a few items to watch in terms of severe potential for
Monday, as the mid and upper-level jet support will certainly be
present, resulting in bulk shear values of 30 to 35 knots. However,
overnight convection may result in extensive cloud cover, limiting
surface-based instability and low-level lapse rates for Monday
afternoon and evening. This will be key as the mid-level lapse rates
around 6 C/km may only support weak MLCAPE values and thus limit the
overall severe threat. In addition, this overnight convection could
also push any pre-frontal initiating boundaries further south and
east into PA, leaving much of the area largely dry. If trends
persist, we anticipate at least a marginal risk for isolated
damaging winds/hail across the far eastern half of the area for
Monday afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, Tuesday appears fairly quiet behind the cold frontal
passage with drier air being introduced into the area. A few models
are hinting at moisture parameters bulging slightly northeast across
the Upper Ohio Valley Tuesday night across NW OH. However at this
time, the most likely solution appears for any convective activity
to remain south and southwest of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather should persist for Wednesday, although as mentioned in
the short term discussion, we'll be monitoring the northeast
moisture bulge as the cold front draped across the OH Valley begins
to slowly lift north as a warm front.  At this point, confidence is
low in precipitation across the region for Wednesday.

For Thursday, active weather may return as a potent upper trough
quickly sweeps east across the Lower Great Lakes. Timing of the
trough passage still remains rather uncertain, though convection
appears most probable late Thursday afternoon and evening with
perhaps more supportive thermodynamics for some stronger storms.

Quieter weather should return by the end of the week into the start
of the weekend as weak surface high pressure builds underneath a
weak upper-level trough. Average to slightly below average
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Widespread showers are moving across the area with patches of
MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities present in heavier
pockets of rain. Opted for prevailing MVFR within showers, but
amendments may be needed if heavier rain is moving over a
terminal. The thunder threat is isolated at this point so will
need to monitor radar and satellite trends this afternoon and
make amendments if needed. Otherwise, most precip should exit
Ohio at some point after midnight tonight with showers possibly
lingering near KERI through mid morning Sunday. MVFR and
isolated IFR ceilings and/or visibilities may develop at eastern
terminals overnight. Smoke from upstream Canadian wildfires
will likely result in haze and/or smoke across most of the area
during the day Sunday, which could produce non-VFR visibilities.

Wind direction will be variable with wind speeds 10 knots or
less through much of tonight before westerly flow develops early
Sunday morning. Winds will likely increase a few knots by the
end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Monday night and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The overall weather pattern into mid-next week suggests generally
quiet marine conditions with no headlines anticipated. However, the
weather pattern will also be quite unsettled with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, some on the stronger side, especially
across the eastern basin through this evening and overnight, with
additional chances for storms Monday and Thursday. One period we'll
need to continue to monitor will be ahead of a cold front Monday
morning and afternoon with west to southwest winds increasing in the
15 to 20 range and waves approaching 4 feet in the outer edges of
the nearshore waters. Otherwise, flow across the lake will be 15
knots or less with waves generally in the 1 to 3 foot range.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
413 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-160815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
413 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening could produce damaging
winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
234 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

OHZ020-021-151915-
Summit OH-Medina OH-
234 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Medina and
west central Summit Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 234 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chippewa Lake, or near Medina, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Medina, Cuyahoga Falls, Brunswick, Wadsworth, Rittman,
Creston, Chippewa Lake, Norton, Fairlawn, Seville, Westfield Center,
Gloria Glens Park, Chippewa-On-The-Lake, Montrose-Ghent, Briarwood
Beach and Pigeon Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8186 4127 8185 4115 8155 4098 8172
      4099 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 209DEG 16KT 4104 8184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

OHZ011-020-021-151945-
Summit OH-Medina OH-Cuyahoga OH-
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Medina,
south central Cuyahoga and northern Summit Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Wadsworth, or 8 miles east of Medina, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Medina, Parma, Cuyahoga Falls, Brunswick, North Royalton,
Hudson, Wadsworth, Twinsburg, Streetsboro, Macedonia, Stow, Broadview
Heights, Brecksville, Seven Hills, Hinckley, Fairlawn, Independence,
Northfield and Richfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4111 8189 4140 8171 4128 8139 4120 8139
      4104 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 221DEG 18KT 4113 8171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

OHZ010-019-030-151945-
Huron OH-Lorain OH-Ashland OH-
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Huron,
northwestern Ashland and southwestern Lorain Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New London, or 14 miles northwest of Ashland, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, New London and Rochester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 8251 4121 8225 4114 8217 4108 8217
      4101 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 229DEG 15KT 4105 8245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
416 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

OHZ012>014-089-152100-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
416 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Geauga, Lake and
northwestern Ashtabula Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Willoughby to near Chardon to near West
Farmington. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Painesville, Ashtabula, Willowick, Conneaut, Chardon, Fairport
Harbor, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Euclid, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake,
Geneva, Madison, North Kingsville, Middlefield, Perry, Burton,
Timberlake, Lakeline and Chesterland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 8052 4138 8113 4150 8139 4157 8140
      4158 8149 4164 8149 4176 8129 4176 8124
      4185 8102 4187 8090 4191 8080 4195 8062
      4196 8059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 219DEG 41KT 4161 8142 4156 8116 4143 8096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn